BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Canadian precip shield looks alot like that storm last January, if you are using those crappy french maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good lord...CMC going to give CHS almost a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good lord...CMC going to give CHS almost a foot of snow. Right where we want it. Still need the euro to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NC totally out of the game with that second wave on the CMC. Most of GA and up to CAE end up with snow showers. Big winner is coastal SC on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Right where we want it. Still need the euro to come on board. CMC sort of reminded me of the Feb storm with it's precip placement. Started out just getting coastal areas then as we got closer precip kept moving west. Hopefully it does the same thing this go round. I know it's a totally different setup but yea I'm perfectly fine with that track this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How does the ukie look. On phone. Thnx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NC totally out of the game with that second wave on the CMC. Most of GA and up to CAE end up with snow showers. Big winner is coastal SC on this run. Cmc 5h maps havent loaded yet but just looking at the surface maps I wouldn't be surprised to see a closed low at hr 147 and 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 5h maps havent loaded yet but just looking at the surface maps I wouldn't be surprised to see a closed low at hr 147 and 150. Oh yea it is def. there and looks to be tracking through the panhandle of FL maybe to SAV...that precip max just around CHS tells the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How does the ukie look. On phone. Thnx Looks like a bomb of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie is not good, much farther north and weaker, like last night's Doc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would like to see the EURO join the party in about an hour, then we might have our best shot of someone in the SE getting some snow, even if it might only be a few inches. I like the looks of that digging vort, if it can only interact more with some southern stream (especially for mountain and foothills areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Oh yea it is def. there and looks to be tracking through the panhandle of FL maybe to SAV...that precip max just around CHS tells the tale.I'm assuming if CHS is the big winner, we are plenty cold back out our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GEFS looks about like the GFS kind of hard to tell though what happens with that back side energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm assuming if CHS is the big winner, we are plenty cold back out our way? Yep not having to worry about cold....gotta worry about enough precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone really look at or use the UKMET ? Is it reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKIE has the hot hand right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Like others have said, i think this is the best setup so far. Hopefully we can get some NW trends with the QPF in the next few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone really look at or use the UKMET ? Is it reliable Sure, like any of the other global models. You just don't hear a lot about it because it's not as accessible as the other models. For example in the model package I pay for it's not in there but it's constantly in the top 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm assuming if CHS is the big winner, we are plenty cold back out our way? If CHS is the big 'winner', it is either hurricane season or the models are doing it to us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If CHS is the snow max with this storm then I've got ocean front property in Topeka Kansas for someone to buy. This looks good especially for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Canadian is much too warm for much snow south of I-20 and even probably 40 miles north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Could we finally get some wintry weather in the SE? Thoughts on the potential in the new video. Thanks for watching. https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure where all this information about CHS getting snow on this Canadian run is coming from... 850s run 3-9C at CHS during all the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good lord...CMC going to give CHS almost a foot of snow. What hour time period? Looks like 0deg 850 is never south of Columbia from 96hrs on through the whole run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thnx for the ukie maps. If those are 24 hr panels and I'm sure they are, that appears you have a phasing storm that comes together off GA coast and rides seaboard. This would be great for large part of NC, epeacilly piedmont foothills and mtns. But it's risky cause you'll get jumped while the ns and southern stream energy jump to coast, then have to wait on coastal to Rev up in a hurry before it gets past us heading up the seaboard. I know the MA crowd has to be rooting for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If your in up state and sw of there back to Atlanta, you'd be depending on the weaker ns energy depicted,as it dies out while transfering energy to the coast. Not even sure it would phase in time to help west of 77 crowd, hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CHS is sleet and ice. Need track a bit further away for KCAE to get much more than token flakes & sleet. Thankfully it's the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And who knows what the 850s are like for any of us. But it is a relevant model and as good as gfs inside 5, so it's important to keep tabs on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And who knows what the 850s are like for any of us. But it is a relevant model and as good as gfs inside 5, so it's important to keep tabs on it. UKMET + Euro lead followed by GFS, GGEM. JMA hasn't been too terrible lately. Wish UKMET maps weren't so limited; will see Euro very soon to see. UKMET is sometimes a good indicator of what's to come on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone really look at or use the UKMET ? Is it reliable It is the second-best model in the world by verification scores, though I have heard in the past it tends to be progressive, which leads to some iffy results when dealing with east coast cyclones. Also, with only 24-hour panels available post-hr 72, it's kind of hard to use at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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