Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure how the 6z didn't turn out better. It had that backside energy digging into New Mexico. Just keeps a positive tilt the entire way. That just hasn't happened much this winter. I'm guessing 6z is a hiccup though with it digging that hard. It would be nice if we could slow things down enough for that thing to amplify wouldn't it? If that happened, we'd have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It would be nice if we could slow things down enough for that thing to amplify wouldn't it? If that happened, we'd have something. This is one area where past systems are in our favor. They've tended over this winter not to be keeping too much of a positive tilt...of course there also hasn't been cold air in place so that probably has to do with the faster flow of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is one area where past systems are in our favor. They've tended over this winter not to be keeping too much of a positive tilt...of course there also hasn't been cold air in place so that probably has to do with the faster flow of the system. Over the past few weeks every potential system has trended deeper and further NW at this range. Without blocking progression is our friend. I would rather this miss wide right then get more rain. The GFS and CMC were very close to a UK like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is one area where past systems are in our favor. They've tended over this winter not to be keeping too much of a positive tilt...of course there also hasn't been cold air in place so that probably has to do with the faster flow of the system. That's a good point. Maybe we'll get lucky and have it amplify at just the right time. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS continues to slow down that southern energy...if it keeps up with this there is no doubt in my mind we'll see a big phased out system in the next couple of days on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 00z GFS continues to slow down that southern energy...if it keeps up with this there is no doubt in my mind we'll see a big phased out system in the next couple of days on the models. Would that mean more WAA? Probley a stupid question, but i know from the past we've done well with weak lows. But we had better blocking too an good Hp placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z gfs looking good....The high over the lakes looks good. Colder w/ moisture moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't think the trough is going to go negative in time to get the bomb but what's showing right now is better than anything we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well that energy in the southern wave really fizzled out fast. We're left with flurries on that back side energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Would that mean more WAA? Probley a stupid question, but i know from the past we've done well with weak lows. But we had better blocking too an good Hp placement. If the cold press is good I would envision it slowing down and allowing a good overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't think the trough is going to go negative in time to get the bomb but what's showing right now is better than anything we've had. I wish the baja low wouldn't vaporize. There are 3 pieces of energy that try and phase at around 108'ish but the baja low washes out just before they come together. Still was close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS has snow for ATL at 138. Edit- BL temps are somewhat marginal, need the vort max to be a bit stronger, does not look to be a lot, but trend is encouraging. Still want to see Doc come on board, its a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Baby steps. The trend has been more good than bad the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We'd all like a big snow bomb, but IMO, the GFS shows what we want to see. That is, we want to see the backside wave be the main event as opposed to the front side baja wave ejecting. Sure, that means it will be weaker overall, but I just don't see that frontside action being cold enough. Like rdu said, we want to see the backside wave just be a little stronger and go more neutral to negative. Of course this is all just speculation given the timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wish the baja low wouldn't vaporize. There are 3 pieces of energy that try and phase at around 108'ish but the baja low washes out just before they come together. Still was close to something bigger. It really wouldn't take much for this to be a bigger deal. Hopefully we get the right trends and not the bad ones...LOL. I'd really like to see the ridge out west to pump up some so that the northern the energy digging south would do so further west. It would give it more of a chance to negative sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks to me like the GFS drops up to 3 inches of snow in Northern Ga. I'll take this look right now. I especially like the thermal profiles on the GFS. As depicted, Northern Ga and Upstate, SC would not have to worry about midlevel or boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We'd all like a big snow bomb, but IMO, the GFS shows what we want to see. That is, we want to see the backside wave be the main event as opposed to the front side baja wave ejecting. Sure, that means it will be weaker overall, but I just don't see that frontside action being cold enough. Like rdu said, we want to see the backside wave just be a little stronger and go more neutral to negative. Of course this is all just speculation given the timeframe. Very true. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks to me like the GFS drops up to 3 inches of snow in Northern Ga. I'll take this look right now. I especially like the thermal profiles on the GFS. As depicted, Northern Ga and Upstate, SC would not have to worry about midlevel or boundary layer temps. Looks like the Charlotte area wouldnt either but we kinda struggle for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS has snow for ATL at 138. Edit- BL temps are somewhat marginal, need the vort max to be a bit stronger, does not look to be a lot, but trend is encouraging. Still want to see Doc come on board, its a long way off. I agree Cheez....The 0z euro had the northern energy further east and it didn't dig near as far south as the the gfs and cmc. Hopefully that'll change at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are ya'll talking early week storm, or end of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ends up as a pretty decent cold snow. I think we manage right at an inch but it's possible it could be higher impact due to temperatures dropping down to the mid 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very true. Good points. agreed! Grit and burger. not going to get anything from a bigger storm right now. This is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are ya'll talking early week storm, or end of next week? Thursday or Friday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thursday or Friday time frame.Thank's thats what I thought but it kinda confusing without stating the storm you talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not sure that I buy the GFS anomalously warming surface temps during the day on Thursday, either. If precip starts at 12z with temps near freezing on thursday, I cant see us getting to 6C at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not sure that I buy the GFS anomalously warming surface temps during the day on Thursday, either. If precip starts at 12z with temps near freezing on thursday, I cant see us getting to 6C at 18z.With this winter, I could easily see the warming happening ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC out to 120, way different than the 00z run; much slower. I like the looks of that backside energy swinging down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty big changes on the 12z Canadian so far. EDIT: Ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GGEM is a nice hit for GSP, CLT, and RDU with the coastal on 2/5. Maybe a 1-3/2-4 type event, but it's something. Maybe 1" up this way. It's a lot colder and close to something greater. Didn't look at surface temps, but I have to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC slows down that southern energy and keeps it just robust enough to possible give some light snow. Energy on the backside of it bringing snow to AL @138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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