franklin NCwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs really digs that 2nd northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Congrats CAE on this run. I'm guessing for most of NC and ATL about .10 - .20 actually falls as snow. CAE gets the advantage of that vort coming so far south and ends up with .25 - .35 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Energy is cutting off @165...someone in GA on the northwest side would be money if that happens. That needs to be watched. If it can cutoff early lookout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Central SC are the winners on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As grit mentioned earlier today, the northern energy is the one to watch. It'd be nice if we could get a little sharper ridge out west. If it did and the trough axis went negative a little earlier we'd have a big storm. Wishful thinking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No way there is a snow hole for 1/2 of NC in that scenario. We're at 150+hrs so not worried about that detail right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As grit mentioned earlier today, the northern energy is the one to watch. It'd be nice if we could get a little sharper ridge out west. If it did and the trough axis went negative a little earlier it be a big storm. Wishful thinking at this time. The other possibility is that it cuts off earlier and takes a descent track. Either way I'm starting to feel good about this. A few possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Getting the ridge sharper is the key to really getting this rolling imo. Every hair tick will magnify the trickle down effects for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As grit mentioned earlier today, the northern energy is the one to watch. It's be nice if we could get a little sharper ridge out west to allow the energy to dig. It it did and the trough axis went negative a little earlier it be a big storm. Wishful thinking at this time. Hate to even say this, but man, with the way things have gone this year, each time we've seen the PV press down across the Great Lakes in the extended range modeling, it has verified farther north at go time. So, if that happens here, what looks decent for the SE turns into a mid-atlantic hit...so, that's one thing to watch for going forward, unfortunately. I'd say along with the ridging out west, the PV pressing down across the Lakes is also important for keeping this wave tracking south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Getting the ridge sharper is the key to really getting this rolling imo. Every hair tick will magnify the trickle down effects for us. Yep watching the CMC now. I really like what the GFS showed. Gonna have to see if daddy Euro can give us real hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hate to even say this, but man, with the way things have gone this year, each time we've seen the PV press down across the Great Lakes in the extended range modeling, it has verified farther north at go time. So, if that happens here, what looks decent for the SE turns into a mid-atlantic hit...so, that's one thing to watch for going forward, unfortunately. I'd say along with the ridging out west, the PV pressing down across the Lakes is also important for keeping this wave tracking south. La La La...I'm not listening....J/K Thanks for the info and lets hope this one works out because if not, the extended doesn't look pretty imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well we made it to the 6 day under mark. Just think get inside 5 this time tommorrow. Big milestone imo. I wish I could freeze frame everything like it is for a few days. Like grit said, seen it on several occasions this winter where something looks promising then next thing u know about day 5 from an event, we loose t he cold air feed eitheir 850 , 2m or both. That's why getting past the next 24 to 48 hrs is huge without any negative trends in the temp dept. Moisture will be there, has been all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC is too warm...but we'll see what happens on the back. Doesn't look too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC is just a big cold rain storm with a cold front pushing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Big storm on the cmc but temps look too warm...Franklin might do ok and up towards Boone. Hard to tell exactly what happens because I only have surface maps right now. 5h maps won't load until later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC does have some very light QPF over a small strip of central GA...but probably won't amount to much just some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC is just a big cold rain storm with a cold front pushing it out. So how long did this storm last us? A day? lol Story of this winter haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CMC was fairly weak and positive tilt with the backside wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I didn't think the CMC was horrible in a way (it wasn't that far off), but it just shows how much we're going to have to thread the needle with this one. I did think the GFS took some nice positive steps. The 00z UKMET has a bomb. Probably too warm for outside the mountains with the track, but who knows? The HP is in decent position, albeit not very strong. In tonight's edition of "Models No One Cares About," the 00z NAVGEM shows a suppressed mess, but no one should be surprised given its tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like the EURO is sending the Low to Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like the EURO is sending the Low to Miami. Yep. Crushed. We've seen this look before and we saw it end up being a warm storm, so I don't see any reason to give up yet. The GGEM, UKMET, and GFS have storms of varying sorts while the ECMWF and NAVGEM are currently suppressed. That being said, I also don't see any reason to celebrate. The beat goes on. We'll probably get nothing, but that's expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro not really impressive if you wanted the original storm to be Wintry as it's surpressed and nothing with backside energy. Looks like the GFS is alone with that. Not good for those in parts of GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro not really impressive if you wanted the original storm to be Wintry as it's surpressed and nothing with backside energy. Looks like the GFS is alone with that. Not good for those in parts of GA/SC. Nice avatar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice avatar! Thanks. I was hoping it would work in our favor, but it's actually just plain annoyingly ugly so I will be changing it here in a bit. I'd like to know why the GFS is still trying to keep that secondary piece of energy like it does. Oddly, the 18z GEFS members ticked way down for KCAE while the Operational improved. Now we have seen an even bigger improvement on the 00z GFS for this area with around .30 QPF falling as snow. Haven't had a chance to look at the GEFS members, but I'd assume they might not be too good once again. Its really hard to get excited with this secondary piece of energy behind the main show. I think the first storm will give precipitation to the area when it's all said and done; although it will be too warm around these parts. It's hard to keep all of these events straight. Edit: 4 members have accumulated snowfall from the 00z GEFS. Out of 21 total, that is not a good look for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 00z Euro ensemble mean is a bigger hit for SC, GA, NC. Maybe the GFS has the right idea. Some also into AL/MS.In fact, if you guys saw the 00z GFS snowfall where KCAE was the winner, it's like that but much larger area into NC of 1.5 inches on the mean. This is a great sign. The hit occurs between 150-162 with some big hits mixed in that could skew it slightly, but for SC I see 20 or so members of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just got a look at last nights 0z euro and hope it trends towards the other globals today. The northern stream energy didn't dig too far south. The energy looked further east on the 5h maps and moved more East than south. I hope it's wrong but that has been the trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I just got a look at last nights 0z euro and hope it trends towards the other globals today. The northern stream energy didn't dig too far south. The energy looked further east on the 5h maps and moved more East than south. I hope it's wrong but that has been the trend this year. Flow is too fast to get any reliable solutions at this range. Good news is, it's very possible for things to come together. I like the high pressure that's modeled. Bad news is, we've seen how this plays out several times, and it ain't pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Flow is too fast to get any reliable solutions at this range. Good news is, it's very possible for things to come together. I like the high pressure that's modeled. Bad news is, we've seen how this plays out several times, and it ain't pretty! Agree...We need to pump that ridge up some in west. If you can work on that, I'll work on getting high into position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure how the 6z didn't turn out better. It had that backside energy digging into New Mexico. Just keeps a positive tilt the entire way. That just hasn't happened much this winter. I'm guessing 6z is a hiccup though with it digging that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Agree...We need to pump that ridge up some in west. If you can work on that, I'll work on getting high into position. Haha sounds good man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.