Extreme NEGA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Where are you looking at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For ATL-AHN, we need a better/closer cold air supply. The high way up int he N Plains is not a good position. Yeah, 2m's are very warm, starts with temps in the 40's in central NC then drops to mid-30's during heart of precip. The HP in Alberta needs to be 200 miles SE. Or we need the H5 low to cut off, that would solve a lot of problems. Edit: All in all a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So much potential for next week. GFS was meh, but ensembles look much better. Canadian had a good storm here. Hope the Euro comes around. The great thing is something is showing up with the runs and ensembles still instead of just dropping everything. In fact, things continue to trend better. Looks like we have a legit shot for at least one winter storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow for NC at 120...Heavier rates probably RDU east. With the look at h5 I believe the qpf would be for expansive than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Dr. No hasn't got a storm right all winter, I wouldn't worry about the details of this run at all...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm not at all worried about 2ms if mid-levels are okay. Realistically, we tend to go isothermal and snow in the 31-33 range in those situations. Slightly better run the last night. Just a couple more steps west and BOOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought the mid week cold was a given. Now, too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Where are you looking at the Euro? Different pay sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought the mid week cold was a given. Now, too warm? Cold is never a given for us, LOL. Weenie map, PGV FTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Round number two setting up for Saturday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought the mid week cold was a given. Now, too warm? For the D5 storm, it really isn't and hasn't been as long as I've seen anything modeled for it (one of yesterday's DGEX runs even had rain-to-snow here). Much more marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 If we could somehow get a 50/50 low to develop for the weekend system, I think that setup could yield something very very big for the east coast. At this point, it's only hope though. The euro looks like it's a precursor to ice through early day 6. Can't tell yet though until i see day 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For the D5 storm, it really isn't and hasn't been as long as I've seen anything modeled for it (one of yesterday's DGEX runs even had rain-to-snow here). Much more marginal. Yep, the big runs a few days ago had the southwest low coming out a little later when the sfc high was in good position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12Z Doc continues to be delayed vs gfs, which allows it to warm more 2/28-3/1. Still, part of NC gets some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Haha well scratch that for this up coming weekend. Way too warm unless we can get a really good high in place for CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep, the big runs a few days ago had the southwest low coming out a little later when the sfc high was in good position Yep, the mid-week comes out a little to fast and the late week, well we will see. Still hold out hope for the mid-week, if we get a SLP tracking off the SE coast with precip being thrown back and it's rain...just got to shake your head. What's funny is we are cold Tuesday, we are seasonal Wednesday, the SLP comes in, borderline temps, and then we are cold Thursday after it departs, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep, the mid-week comes out a little to fast and the late week, well we will see. Still hold out hope for the mid-week, if we get a SLP tracking off the SE coast with precip being thrown back and it's rain...just got to shake your head. What's funny is we are cold Tuesday, we are seasonal Wednesday, the SLP comes in, borderline temps, and then we are cold Thursday after it departs, LOL. That's the way it's been all winter! Rain in between cold shots. That's what a +NAO will do for you.. Frustrating to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The weekend storm looks better than last night, IMO. Looks like it is going to Apps Run instead of cut. Looks like a pretty significant icing event before going over to rain here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep, the mid-week comes out a little to fast and the late week, well we will see. Still hold out hope for the mid-week, if we get a SLP tracking off the SE coast with precip being thrown back and it's rain...just got to shake your head. What's funny is we are cold Tuesday, we are seasonal Wednesday, the SLP comes in, borderline temps, and then we are cold Thursday after it departs, LOL. sounds like the whole winter. I think most of Virginia is now at climo. Getting pretty pathetic for everyone south of Virginia and ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's the way it's been all winter! Rain in between cold shots. That's what a +NAO will do for you.. Frustrating to say the least. Yeah keeping that high in just the right place can be troublesome. Its like balancing a basketball on a pencil without the Atlantic/Baffin block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's the way it's been all winter! Rain in between cold shots. That's what a +NAO will do for you.. Frustrating to say the least. sounds like the whole winter. I think most of Virginia is now at climo. Getting pretty pathetic for everyone south of Virginia and ky. Well next weekend doesn't have a prayer, IMO, so I am all in on this southern low for mid week. I like where it's at right now, I am hoping it eventually cuts off, tracks to our south, cold air won't be a problem then. Or, it slows about 6-12 hours to allow the HP to come in. Lots of options for that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't believe the Euro with the track of next weekends storm yet. Especially this winter as bad as it has done at LR. GFS, GEFS, GGEM, GGEMENS, EPS, JMA, all say a coastal track at this point. Of course the other models haven't done a great job either this winter and we have the dreaded NW trend most of the time. I guess we better hope we get something out of the Wed - Thur system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well the 12Z model suite really cleared things up for the week didn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well next weekend doesn't have a prayer, IMO, so I am all in on this southern low for mid week. I like where it's at right now, I am hoping it eventually cuts off, tracks to our south, cold air won't be a problem then. Or, it slows about 6-12 hours to allow the HP to come in. Lots of options for that system. Pack, You don't think 12Z GFS could be correct? It gives you a major winter storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pack, You don't think 12Z GFS could be correct? It gives you a major winter storm next weekend. I'd also note that even the Euro gives the NC CAD regions a major winter storm via ice before going over to rain. The Euro isn't exactly being consistent, either. Today's run was quite a bit different than last night's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yeah keeping that high in just the right place can be troublesome. Its like balancing a basketball on a pencil without the Atlantic/Baffin block. If we could have had a -NAO from just time to time it could have been a heckva winter!!! We will get a -NAO soon probably but to late when it's well into March or April... Mountains can still score then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Pack, You don't think 12Z GFS could be correct? It gives you a major winter storm next weekend. No, heights are rising in the east at that time, I think this tracks inland. Just last week we had the most supressed storm track we could possibly get and it still wasn't supressed enough. For this weekend event the west coast ridge is in the pacific and the trough axis is between Dallas and Denver. I very well may be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z EPS has a great storm signal for Wed/Thurs...looks a lot like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z EPS has a great storm signal for Wed/Thurs...looks a lot like the GEFS. has it improved drastically over the 00z? I see tighter grouping near the gulf out to 102 but don't have the other frames yet. Edit: got the new frames, tighter grouping at 06z Thursday but still a good amount of spread, lots of sub 1000mb lows along the SC/NC coast, I believe more-so than the 00z EPS members had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro Control Run is going to be a crush job for the Wednesday storm. Plenty cold both at 850mb and the surface in N. GA and Northern SC.. Also looks like a nice precip shield pushing north. Edit: I spook too soon, for some reason it rapidly warms everybody as night time approaches Wednesday evening. Still a big hit for the foothills of NC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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