Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Canadian nearly keeps the STJ and PJ phased the whole time, not allowing for any southern wave to amplify. It's a high pressure country! Only thing to hope for there is a triple phaser to bring the low out of the depths of the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Can everyone reference which threat they are getting to? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 CMC just barely manages to give us a descent hit of snow. Probably 2-4 inches from about CLT east maybe 4-8 for RDU. Looks like another late-bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How did the UK look? Hard to tell from the map Pack posted earlier. It's done well this winter, so I'm inclined to weight it a bit more heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How did the UK look? Hard to tell from the map Pack posted earlier. It's done well this winter, so I'm inclined to weight it a bit more heavily. I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs... Edit: here's the midweek storm.. looks pretty amped to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs... Gotcha, thanks. Now that you say that, it seems like I remember that the good maps come out around 4:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs... Edit: here's the midweek storm.. looks pretty amped to me. Got the 546dm falling into the s/w, plenty strong.. just need enough confluence to build in to bring in HP overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 here's the 144hr Ukmet. Looks like high pressure will slide out and our storm will be too slow to come east. But who knows if this is right.. I don't think any 2 models show the same setup right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z GEFS has a strong storm signal for Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How did the UK look? Hard to tell from the map Pack posted earlier. It's done well this winter, so I'm inclined to weight it a bit more heavily. 00Z UKMET still shows the Tuesday system. Has 2 - 5 inches of frozen precip for about the eastern half of NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z GEFS has a strong storm signal for Thurs. I like this one over the weekend possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Surprised no one is bringing up the possibility of a Monday event, The NAM and GFS have been trending north (and stronger I believe) with the system with an impressive area of high pressure pulling down cold air as it passes. The SREF indicates the possibility of precipitation with 850 temps near 0 for the northern third of NC. Interesting trends to say the least. Looks pretty harmless at this point, but if it was able to cold air down a bit quicker someone would be in for a couple inches of ice/snow. I know this is inside three days but I don't see another thread to place this in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thursday is my birthday, so there will be a storm. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I like this one over the weekend possibilities. Also doesn't look bad for the weekend. Much colder and not relying on CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thursday is my birthday, so there will be a storm. Book it. Thursday is when our granite countertops are to be installed. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thursday is when our granite countertops are to be installed. Book it. All that's left to be decided is 1 or 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Surprised no one is bringing up the possibility of a Monday event, The NAM and GFS have been trending north (and stronger I believe) with the system with an impressive area of high pressure pulling down cold air as it passes. The SREF indicates the possibility of precipitation with 850 temps near 0 for the northern third of NC. Interesting trends to say the least. Looks pretty harmless at this point, but if it was able to cold air down a bit quicker someone would be in for a couple inches of ice/snow. I know this is inside three days but I don't see another thread to place this in... MHX actually has it in the PIC for us as slight chance of rain/snow mix Monday into Monday night....night be nice to score 2-3" with it, then hit again Thurs and then finish the week off with a big dog over the weekend....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 MHX actually has it in the PIC for us as slight chance of rain/snow mix Monday into Monday night....night be nice to score 2-3" with it, then hit again Thurs and then finish the week off with a big dog over the weekend....... Interesting. I bet both MHX and possibly even RAH ramp up probability of precipitation with their afternoon discussion with the continued northward trend displayed by the GFS, NAM & SREF. If this system is able to strengthen a bit and turn the corner, maybe it would be enough to slow the northern stream energy, possibly further promoting subsequent shots at winter weather as you suggest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Interesting. I bet both MHX and possibly even RAH ramp up probability of precipitation with their afternoon discussion with the continued northward trend displayed by the GFS, NAM & SREF. If this system is able to strengthen a bit and turn the corner, maybe it would be enough to slow the northern stream energy, possibly further promoting subsequent shots at winter weather as you suggest...GSP mentions something In that timeframe for us, but I think it was mostly rain or rain to snow, in their morning AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Chris Justus mentioning possible "major ice storm" for next Friday evening... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OdUJ3rNU8hA&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 @105 the Euro could be getting really good for Thurs. Like the look at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I believe the euro is setting up a good storm for Thursday. Almost neutral in east Texas. Edit: Burger beat me to it...I need to type faster...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Healthy looking wave on the euro. Let's make it happen folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Euro is about to go BOOM if we can get enough cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Chris Justus mentioning possible "major ice storm" for next Friday evening... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OdUJ3rNU8hA&feature=youtu.be Even Atlanta gets a major ZR storm, verbatim of course... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OMG @111 Euro setting up for the BIG DOG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Probably snow for N. Ga and W. SC at hr 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 OMG @111 Euro setting up for the BIG DOG! For ATL-AHN, we need a better/closer cold air supply. The high way up int he N Plains is not a good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Man Euro was so close. Doesn't quite get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 For ATL-AHN, we need a better/closer cold air supply. The high way up int he N Plains is not a good position. Yea just barely cool enough for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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