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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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Canadian nearly keeps the STJ and PJ phased the whole time, not allowing for any southern wave to amplify.  It's a high pressure country!

 

Only thing to hope for there is a triple phaser to bring the low out of the depths of the GOM.

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  On 2/21/2015 at 4:54 PM, Cold Rain said:

How did the UK look? Hard to tell from the map Pack posted earlier. It's done well this winter, so I'm inclined to weight it a bit more heavily.

 

I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs... 

 

Edit: here's the midweek storm.. looks pretty amped to me.

post-309-0-54991700-1424537960_thumb.gif

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  On 2/21/2015 at 4:56 PM, burrel2 said:

I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs...

Gotcha, thanks. Now that you say that, it seems like I remember that the good maps come out around 4:00. :)

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  On 2/21/2015 at 4:56 PM, burrel2 said:

I don't think anybody can tell about the Wed night threat yet... looks to me like it is setting up a trough too far out west for the weekend storm... I would guess it would lead to a cutter of some sort post 144hrs... 

 

Edit: here's the midweek storm.. looks pretty amped to me.

 

Got the 546dm falling into the s/w, plenty strong.. just need enough confluence to build in to bring in HP overhead.

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  On 2/21/2015 at 4:54 PM, Cold Rain said:

How did the UK look? Hard to tell from the map Pack posted earlier. It's done well this winter, so I'm inclined to weight it a bit more heavily.

 

 

00Z UKMET still shows the Tuesday system. Has 2 - 5 inches of frozen precip for about the eastern half of NC and SC.

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Surprised no one is bringing up the possibility of a Monday event, The NAM and GFS have been trending north (and stronger I believe) with the system with an impressive area of high pressure pulling down cold air as it passes. The SREF indicates the possibility of precipitation with 850 temps near 0 for the northern third of NC. Interesting trends to say the least. Looks pretty harmless at this point, but if it was able to cold air down a bit quicker someone would be in for a couple inches of ice/snow.

 

I know this is inside three days but I don't see another thread to place this in...

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  On 2/21/2015 at 5:08 PM, Smoked said:

Surprised no one is bringing up the possibility of a Monday event, The NAM and GFS have been trending north (and stronger I believe) with the system with an impressive area of high pressure pulling down cold air as it passes. The SREF indicates the possibility of precipitation with 850 temps near 0 for the northern third of NC. Interesting trends to say the least. Looks pretty harmless at this point, but if it was able to cold air down a bit quicker someone would be in for a couple inches of ice/snow.

 

I know this is inside three days but I don't see another thread to place this in...

 

MHX actually has it in the PIC for us as slight chance of rain/snow mix Monday into Monday night....night be nice to score 2-3" with it, then hit again Thurs and then finish the week off with a big dog over the weekend.......

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  On 2/21/2015 at 5:15 PM, downeastnc said:

MHX actually has it in the PIC for us as slight chance of rain/snow mix Monday into Monday night....night be nice to score 2-3" with it, then hit again Thurs and then finish the week off with a big dog over the weekend.......

 

Interesting. I bet both MHX and possibly even RAH ramp up probability of precipitation with their afternoon discussion with the continued northward trend displayed by the GFS, NAM & SREF. If this system is able to strengthen a bit and turn the corner, maybe it would be enough to slow the northern stream energy, possibly further promoting subsequent shots at winter weather as you suggest...

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  On 2/21/2015 at 5:22 PM, Smoked said:

Interesting. I bet both MHX and possibly even RAH ramp up probability of precipitation with their afternoon discussion with the continued northward trend displayed by the GFS, NAM & SREF. If this system is able to strengthen a bit and turn the corner, maybe it would be enough to slow the northern stream energy, possibly further promoting subsequent shots at winter weather as you suggest...

GSP mentions something In that timeframe for us, but I think it was mostly rain or rain to snow, in their morning AFD
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