griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's funny how we haven't mentioned one thing that we'd usually be clamoring for.. a -NAO. LOL. Usually at this stage in the game it's a more important feature but this winter, as with last winter, the Pacific has made up for it. Well, we do only have an inch of sleet and a little freezing rain to show for it though...but yeah, let's see if we get anything this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With the trough axis between CO and Tx, I wonder where the SLP track for this Saturday potential. This should track up the apps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Big nasty overrunner on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Exactly.. This is the kind of setup that gives us our big ones. A potent southern wave that closes off as it moves into the deep south with confluence building overhead. Good timing with the anniversary of the Feb 26, 2004 storm coming up. That 996 low over SAV on the dgex is mouth-watering. LOL Wow- Are you talking next weekends storm Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Day 5 on the Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With the trough axis between CO and Tx, I wonder where the SLP track for this Saturday potential. This should track up the apps... I agree but if the western ridge is just a touch to the east we would be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With the trough axis between CO and Tx, I wonder where the SLP track for this Saturday potential. This should track up the apps... Not with that big cold sfc high in place...a lot of warming aloft, but sfc is cold...all talking verbatim GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 With the trough axis between CO and Tx, I wonder where the SLP track for this Saturday potential. This should track up the apps... I believe it ends up a Miller B type on the 12z gfs. The trough axis was starting to go negative too soon but couldn't cut because of the cold wedge so transfers to the coast giving a huge storm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Better run on the GFS 12Z than the 6Z for next weekend's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow to sleet to ZR for CAD areas on the GFS for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Do you believe the trend will continue? Talking about next weekend storm? I think the trend will be to strengthen the mid week system. I'm not sure on the weekend system. I'd like to see some other models get on board for that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Is the storm slowing down now on modeling? It was a Friday morning storm now a Friday night Saturday morning storm? On mobile right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Lets see what the GGEM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Do we not get the precip map on the ECMWF or am I just not looking in the right place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAVGEM is a amped up beast for Wed/Thurs deal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 SE ridge makes an appearance after next weekend's storm. Might be welcomed by then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Is the storm slowing down now on modeling? It was a Friday morning storm now a Friday night Saturday morning storm? On mobile right now GFS shows the precip coming in Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 SE ridge makes an appearance after next weekend's storm. Might be welcomed by then! Yep....sweet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 NAVGEM is a amped up beast for Wed/Thurs deal... sub-1000mb LP on the SC/GA coastline at 114. Loving it.. loving it... Strong LP's are good when you are to the NW of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS doesn't. it does, just fizzles the energy too early.. as it's known to to. pay attention to the 500mb maps and you'll see. you want to see that energy stay consolidated and not string out ahead of it, pulling energy out of it s/w. this is what powers our surface low and generates vertical lift to pull the precip inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I thought we want the Miller A low to be weak? Larry says that's how we get most of our bigger snows, a 1002-12 low across the gulf and through SGa? Mack, That is correct for ATL for sure. Out of 32 Miller A 3.5"+ snows/1.5"+ IP's at ATL since 1877, 29 had 1000-1020 mb for lowest SLP while in the GOM. These are usually underneath a strong high. Two were 995-9 & the other was 1993's 976. Median SLP ~1010. Track either through FL pan/SE GA or through N or C FL. It winds up usually once it hits Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 sub-1000mb LP on the SC/GA coastline at 114. Loving it.. loving it... Maybe we do want the GFS where it's at 108 hours out. The CMC doesn't have anything for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Would be nice to get some consistency on the euro. The STJ has played havoc w/ any forecasts past 5 days all winter. I still think mid-week and next weekend look to have good chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 SE ridge makes an appearance after next weekend's storm. Might be welcomed by then! Could be a sign of what's to come next weekend. Sometimes there is a big system that comes through the south causing the pattern shift afterwords. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Take a look at the 12z GFS total 168hr that's Saturday I'm starting to get more interested on this storm on that weekend durning that whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Mack, That is correct for ATL for sure. Out of 32 Miller A 3.5"+ snows/1.5"+ IP's at ATL since 1877, 29 had 1000-1020 mb for lowest SLP while in the GOM. These are usually underneath a strong high. Two were 995-9 & the other was 1993's 976. Median SLP ~1010. Track either through FL pan/SE GA or through N or C FL. It winds up usually once it hits Gulf Stream. In the gulf, yes but once in the Atlantic off/near the SE coast line, let it explode! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That NAVGEM track would very likely be too warm for ATL-AHN. Amped up usually not good. This is likely better for RAH/parts of NC. I haven't seen 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That NAVGEM track would very likely be too warm for ATL-AHN. Amped up usually not good. This is likely better for RAH/parts of NC. I haven't seen 850's. 850s are quite warm for everyone outside of NW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 CMC just barely manages to give us a descent hit of snow. Probably 2-4 inches from about CLT east maybe 4-8 for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well... we don't have to worry about the Canadian cutting our weekend storm... It has the surface low down around the yucatan at 144hrs... lol.. I like the look at this range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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