Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We will see what the Euro ensembles do, but for now I an very skeptical that we get something of interest out of this pattern. Because, if the storm in a week does bot pan out- looks like warm air will flood the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It won't keep that look, so no worries , it hasn't all winter. Tonight's Euro will probly show an Ohio valley track,lol The 12z euro is completely wrong on the surface. Low should be off the coast of NC. Dont know why the model is producing such a ridiculous scenario. GEM looks more realistic to me, and its got consistent trends over the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Energy doesn't hold long enough...storm suppressed. Probably exactly where we want to be right now. This was a big shift in the right direction though from the Euro. I agree. A lot of times SE winter storm tracks trend NW over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 We will see what the Euro ensembles do, but for now I an very skeptical that we get something of interest out of this pattern. Because, if the storm in a week does bot pan out- looks like warm air will flood the CONUS. Everyone is skeptical BUT.....this piece of energy tagging along on the backside of the 5th sure could make things interesting if the Euro bias of holding energy back is at play. I'm not holding my breath though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The problem is there are such huge swings run to run even inside of 3-4 days and across pretty much all the models, its been awhile since I have seen models this far apart and unable to even agree with themselves run to run much less different models agreeing on a solution. Kinda makes it pointless, although this last run was a little better they all generally had a sorta similar idea for next week, maybe that will mean they are finally starting to settle down.....but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the problem in this pattern is that there is high-latitude blocking over Alaska, which allows a breakthrough of the strong Pacific westerlies into the Pacific NW- that in turn does not allow the ridge along the west coast to build sufficiently to dig/phase a trough where we need it in the SE for a winter storm. That is my interpretation of the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the problem in this pattern is that there is high-latitude blocking over Alaska, which allows a breakthrough of the strong Pacific westerlies into the Pacific NW- that in turn does not allow the ridge along the west coast to build sufficiently to dig/phase a trough where we need it in the SE for a winter storm. That is my interpretation of the latest Euro. The last 3 runs of the euro have been completely different also. So it should change at 0z again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 ECMWF Ensembles got the right idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That is last night's run, mp184qcr. I've got to run in a bit, but I'll look at them if I can get a chance before I leave. Of course, it's not as if the EPS mean hasn't been swinging wildly from run-to-run, so I'm not sure if it even matters what it shows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The problem is there are such huge swings run to run even inside of 3-4 days and across pretty much all the models, its been awhile since I have seen models this far apart and unable to even agree with themselves run to run much less different models agreeing on a solution. Kinda makes it pointless, although this last run was a little better they all generally had a sorta similar idea for next week, maybe that will mean they are finally starting to settle down.....but I doubt it. Yep. That has been the story of the of the entire season. It's been incredibly frustrating not being able to put any faith whatsoever in any model or solution beyond the short range. It's like the 5 day is the new 10 day. I think the problem in this pattern is that there is high-latitude blocking over Alaska, which allows a breakthrough of the strong Pacific westerlies into the Pacific NW- that in turn does not allow the ridge along the west coast to build sufficiently to dig/phase a trough where we need it in the SE for a winter storm. That is my interpretation of the latest Euro. The good news is that it certainly trended better with respect to the cold. No it's not there yet, obviously, but the cold is certainly is a lot closer than the 0z run. As downeast said, Considering all the changes in the models this far out all year, it's almost silly to take any model very seriously at all at this range... But I'm happy that there is at least a chance future runs could change for the better. The moto this year is if you are unhappy with this run, just wait until the next since it will likely be completely different. Will take any small victories we can at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No doubt there will be a storm in my mind...Has there been a storm that actually WAS suppressed this year? I don't remember one. They all come north and wet. The only question I think is there enough cold before it gets here and does it stay in the gulf. Most likely the answer is no. Wash rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fwiw the 12z GGEM ensembles are much faster than the OP with the southern stream. Thus leading to a warmer mean solution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fwiw the 12z GGEM ensembles are much faster than the OP with the southern stream. Thus leading to a warmer mean solution . Probably a good thing. The GGEM ensembles usually offer false hope, so if they show a terrible solution, that might be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS hasn't gotten to the 2/5 - 2/6 storm but just early on I'm betting it looks close to it's OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That is last night's run, mp184qcr. I've got to run in a bit, but I'll look at them if I can get a chance before I leave. Of course, it's not as if the EPS mean hasn't been swinging wildly from run-to-run, so I'm not sure if it even matters what it shows at this point. Whoops. sorry! i checked the past few EPS runs and they have been somewhat more consistent, gives me some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh Lawd, the JMA looks nice at 144hrs! We now have the CMC,NAVGEM, and JMA all showing potential for a widespread snow storm; what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Fwiw the 12z GGEM ensembles are much faster than the OP with the southern stream. Thus leading to a warmer mean solution .The ensembles are as bad as the op runs this year, for whatever reason! I think GFS ensembles were showing snow for the Carolinas , even up to yesterday , for the sb storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS looks lock step with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS looks lock step with the OP. Looks like I spoke to soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS looks lock step with the OP. Yep for the members that have a storm , most are suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EPS looks lock step with the OP. Big shift on the control run. It went from west of an I-95 runner to lock-step with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Much rather have a suppressed system squashed to oblivion at this point....not that it really matters. There will be a storm, and Kentucky up through the NE will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh Lawd, the JMA looks nice at 144hrs! We now have the CMC,NAVGEM, and JMA all showing potential for a widespread snow storm; what could go wrong? Ah a Jan 96 type of setup with the polar energy swinging down from MT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RAH Long range says GFS REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH PRECIP MOVING IN LATER ON WEDNESDAY... 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE LOW OUT TO SEA WITH LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT... AND GFS ENSEMBLE HAS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST... SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW. TIMING WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON PTYPE... WITH ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP POTENTIALLY BRINGING PTYPE ISSUES. AT THIS POINT... WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL TIMING/DEVELOPMENT CAN BE BETTER ASCERTAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Much rather have a suppressed system squashed to oblivion at this point....not that it really matters. There will be a storm, and Kentucky up through the NE will jackpot. Agreed, but it can get NW in a hurry. Look at this Sun/Mon deal, it seems like every 6 hour run the NS energy tries to phase with the baja low a little stronger and thus the low is stronger. This has been happening gradually for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12Z GFS had a good shot of snow for North Georgia around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Blacksburg articulates the situation well... And appears to be consistent with what you good people are saying. WEDNESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM. AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL...THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEAR ANSWERS FOR THIS EVENT EITHER. DISTINCT NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ARE EVIDENT WED...WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CHI-MCI...REASONABLY CONSISTENT AMONG BOTH MODELS. WHAT IS NOT CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...IS A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM RACING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THIS BACK ALONG THE TX COAST. THE ECMWF TRACKS THIS FEATURE WELL SOUTH KEEPING IT ACROSS GA/SC...THEN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS IT PLUNGES AN ARCTIC HIGH SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY...CLEARLY FOCUSING ON THE NORTHERN STREAM. MEANWHILE...THE GFS TRACKS THIS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST AND GENERATES A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC. THE GFS HAS AN EQUIVALENT ARCTIC HIGH...BUT HOLDS IT BACK NORTH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST UNTIL A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ADVERTISED WITH THESE TWO PATTERNS. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW TRACKING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WED NIGHT/THU...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT...FOLLOWED BY TYPICAL UPSLOPE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THU. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW...WHICH GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT...AS OPPOSED TO ANY ONE MODEL. IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT...THERE IS MORE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA...AND AGAIN ISSUES WITH P-TYPE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO AT THIS POINT THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS almost a bomb day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ah a Jan 96 type of setup with the polar energy swinging down from MT? Yea, That 144hr JMA image screams mega-potential to me... The best look we have seen all winter IMO; if we can get it to pan out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS almost a bomb day 6 Just a little too fast...Need it to be a little slower to get the cold air in. Slowing it down has definitely been the trend today. Edit: Oh so close but the track being a little further east helped w/ temps. Still some snow for NC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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