superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow, the GGEM is a legit NC/NW SC crusher. Late-bloomer like last March, but a nice one. Fluffy for us WNC folks, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks nice and 2m temps are COLD. It's down to 20 in Spartanburg by the end of the storm. Clown map actually looks like something that could occur in reality too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow, the GGEM is a legit NC/NW SC crusher. Late-bloomer like last March, but a nice one. Fluffy for us WNC folks, too. Didn't see that coming. Thought it was going stay south put managed to pull it out. The Feb 26-28 storm is still on. Good to see the GFS keeping it there but suppressed for now. If the Euro blows this one up, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GEFS does not support the OP cutting At all...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GEFS does not support the OP cutting At all...... Trending stronger to the Feb 27-28 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well, the Euro is really, really close to a real bomb for NC/upstate SC at D5. Decent track, really, but the precip shield isn't very extensive. Needless to say, a big departure from last run... Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The doc is drunk..nothing to see here. Maybe for W or C NC saturday....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Well, the Euro is really, really close to a real bomb for NC/upstate SC at D5. Decent track, really, but the precip shield isn't very extensive. Needless to say, a big departure from last run... Yeah. Extremely close. Just a tad stronger s/w and that would tip the balance there. Looking at the 500mb map at 120, that would be a potent storm. The HP needs to move in a little faster however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Extremely close. Just a tad stronger s/w and that would tip the balance there. Yep. Looks like it's going to cut with the D8 system. Hope it's off its rocker with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep. Looks like it's going to cut with the D8 system. Hope it's off its rocker with that one. Yeah, but the ULL over the s/w and the big high building over AK looks awesome. The excitement builds into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Definite Miller A signal on the 00z EPS for D5. 1008 mb over the FL panhandle at hr 120 and 1004 mb off of ILM at hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow looking over last night's runs and now 6z day five looks legit. Will not be shocked to see it trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z DGEX only gives us 35-40" on the day 5 event. We toss, nothing short of 40". The day 5 deal is a pure southern h5 low. Since the pac ridge is gone there is nothing to drop down and phase with it, unless the PV drops down, not likely. With that said the h5 low has been trending stronger and stronger, the 6z GFS actually shows a closed low day 4'ish. Just need the h5 low to stay strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z DGEX only gives us 35-40" on the day 5 event. We toss, nothing short of 40". The day 5 deal is a pure southern h5 low. Since the pac ridge is gone there is nothing to drop down and phase with it, unless the PV drops down, not likely. With that said the h5 low has been trending stronger and stronger, the 6z GFS actually shows a closed low day 4'ish. Just need the h5 low to stay strong. It looks like a lot of the Euro ensemble members have a precip field similar to the DGEX, cold air looks marginal though. Hopefully, if the surface low takes a perfect track, we can squeak out enough cold air for a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It looks like a lot of the Euro ensemble members have a precip field similar to the DGEX, cold air looks marginal though. Hopefully, if the surface low takes a perfect track, we can squeak out enough cold air for a snowstorm. So you're saying we're gonna get 40 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z DGEX only gives us 35-40" on the day 5 event. We toss, nothing short of 40". The day 5 deal is a pure southern h5 low. Since the pac ridge is gone there is nothing to drop down and phase with it, unless the PV drops down, not likely. With that said the h5 low has been trending stronger and stronger, the 6z GFS actually shows a closed low day 4'ish. Just need the h5 low to stay strong. Post the map. It's not going to happen, but post it so we can at least dream a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Post the map. It's not going to happen, but post it so we can at least dream a little. Here you go.. Edit: Just noticed, that is 40"+, crap. Guess the bar is now set to 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Awesome, thanks! That is the best Dgex map I have ever seen. You know it's wrong though, since the gradient is not across Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Models still having a hard time resolving various features and timing for the coming week. The potential is definitely still there, best of the winter for us in the South. Don't expect it to be resolved in the short term, will wait and see how it comes together. Fab Feb continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 6z DGEX only gives us 35-40" on the day 5 event. We toss, nothing short of 40". The day 5 deal is a pure southern h5 low. Since the pac ridge is gone there is nothing to drop down and phase with it, unless the PV drops down, not likely. With that said the h5 low has been trending stronger and stronger, the 6z GFS actually shows a closed low day 4'ish. Just need the h5 low to stay strong. That's exactly why I'm so excited about it. Not having to depend on a phase or northern energy, just a straight up vort trucking east. It also gives me hope that the models have often been too quick to sheer out the energy coming east or weaken it to fast. If we can get that baby to pop a closed low possibly two contour 12+ inches would not be out of the question for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow looking over last night's runs and now 6z day five looks legit. Will not be shocked to see it trend in our favor. GFS operational has trended stronger with the Feb 26-27 storm. All of the models have the storm with varying degrees of strength, and thus position. I like the trend. The 500mb map from the DGEX looks very reasonable with a closed off low trekking across the south (ignore its qpf output obviously): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS operational has trended stronger with the Feb 26-27 storm. All of the models have the storm with varying degrees of strength, and thus position. I like the trend. The 500mb map from the DGEX looks very reasonable with a closed off low trekking across the south (ignore its qpf output obviously): So no 50 inches for us? In all seriousness though I really like the look of this on the models. Plus we are now 5 days away so models should start getting a handle on things. If 12z suite has this I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 DGEX has a KCHS snow shield, bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GSP seems very unimpressed with anything between Mon -Wed in their morning discussion, at all! I saw way more mention of rain , than anything else! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GSP seems very unimpressed with anything between Mon -Wed in their morning discussion, at all! I saw way more mention of rain , than anything else! It's next weekends storm or bust for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM shows some Winter weather for NC on Monday Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM for Monday: 850 and 6hr precip at hour 48: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150221+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Simulated radar at hour 48: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150221+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM shows some Winter weather for NC on Monday Sent from my iPhone Yea not far off...not sure what I think about the temp profiles though. I don't really see anything to cool us off to the point of snow unless rates are really heavy. edited -- didn't see that 1044 high dropping down just at the right time. That will need to be watched obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 12z NAM for Monday: 850 and 6hr precip at hour 48: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150221+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Simulated radar at hour 48: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=048ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150221+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Looks good for Boone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase2211 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Burger can you see past hour 60 yet? Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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