DopplerWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Chris, Nice update, as always. Thanks! Board-wide? No. Too late in the year for any chance of even a pellet this far south. But man do I hope ya'all score!!! Best, Phil i always root for you down there in fl! dont give up hope yet, we just need a 1899 redux! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 i always root for you down there in fl! dont give up hope yet, we just need a 1899 redux! I've been tooting 1899 every February since I can remember. Have you read Kocin on it? If not, PM me and I'll send you the PDF. This year for a few runs it almost looked like a maybe 1899 redux. But so much for models and wishing. lol Hope fades down here when March rolls in. And last night our NWS forecast of 18 came in at 24, so trends and climo say we're going up, and not going to get another shot this year. But its damn fun rooting for ya'all!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Chris, Nice update, as always. Thanks! Board-wide? No. Too late in the year for any chance of even a pellet this far south. But man do I hope ya'all score!!! Best, Phil Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We were just anti-NAM'd. The 18z NAM was dry, but set up a nice storm on D5 on the DGEX, though, FWIW. Indeed, and it actually looks rather reasonable. No widespread 30" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I've been tooting 1899 every February since I can remember. Have you read Kocin on it? If not, PM me and I'll send you the PDF. This year for a few runs it almost looked like a maybe 1899 redux. But so much for models and wishing. lol Hope fades down here when March rolls in. And last night our NWS forecast of 18 came in at 24, so trends and climo say we're going up, and not going to get another shot this year. But its damn fun rooting for ya'all!!!! You are a great sport! I often think about how frustrating it is in the upstate when it comes to winter weather but I imagine it must be downright exhausting in Florida, even in the Northern part. Thanks for all your positive contributions to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right now suppression is the word for the 0z gfs. The Thursday storm is still south and east. We'll see how the Saturday storm turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snow or maybe ice (hard to tell w/ the maps I'm looking at) for a good part of Ga and SC at hr 180 and 183. Edit: Definitely ice at hr 186. Wedge is setting up similar to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Right now suppression is the word for the 0z gfs. The Thursday storm is still south and east. We'll see how the Saturday storm turns out. Sat is another huge overrunning event into a cold high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The High over PA is 1044mb+ at hr180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sat is another huge overrunning event into a cold high.So everything supressed until then, or nothing till then? How's the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 There is more energy moving in from the west at 189 but I believe it's going to cut. Going negative too early. Edit: Yep, it cuts and raises temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 So everything supressed until then, or nothing till then? How's the cold? The Wed storm isn't far off, but it's too far south on the GFS. Cold setup is good after that, but GFS is throwing a big overrunning setup at us that warms everything aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS destroys GA *from me north* and the Carolinas with a PERFECT WEDGE and 1045mb high by late next friday and sat...like the 0c line goes down to SOUTH GA for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like the GFS has the DGEX's D4-5 storm. Just wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The Wed storm isn't far off, but it's too far south on the GFS. Cold setup is good after that, but GFS is throwing a big overrunning setup at us that warms everything aloft. We need the ridge further east later in the week w/ all that energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We need the ridge further east later in the week w/ all that energy. Boy we have heard that all winter. Maybe once can we get it to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS appears to be following the pattern of dumping the cold in the west (trough builds down to Mexico) and raising heights in the east. Euro's 12Z run did this and by hour 240, the SE was on fire at 850. I would expect more runs like this. We may see the ice threat diminish as we go through time. There is no snow threat what so ever in the Atlanta areas as modeled by the GFS 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We need the ridge further east later in the week w/ all that energy. Fully agree. It's so far out there in time, so who knows how it will evolve...and it seems like the models always struggle with how they handle the west coast features. This sfc high coming down late week has been consistently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS appears to be following the pattern of dumping the cold in the west (trough builds down to Mexico) and raising heights in the east. Euro's 12Z run did this and by hour 240, the SE was on fire at 850. I would expect more runs like this. We may see the ice threat diminish as we go through time. There is no snow threat what so ever in the Atlanta areas as modeled by the GFS 0z run.Sounds awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know we have time, and I know the pattern is supposed to be good, but still don't see any good specifics showing up on the models yet. Not feeling this one as of right now. Need to start seeing something on the models. Right now it just sounds like good potential, but no results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 00z GGEM has some snow for Atlanta and N GA on D3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The canadian is showing some light snow for Atlanta, Ga. and around Columbia, SC on Tuesday early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know we have time, and I know the pattern is supposed to be good, but still don't see any good specifics showing up on the models yet. Not feeling this one as of right now. Need to start seeing something on the models. Right now it just sounds like good potential, but no results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I think it's a little premature to be cliff diving on a storm that is 8+ days away. There are going to be plenty of changes. We prob won't get a good feel for next weekends potential until sometime next week. Just keep the storm and HP and we can work out the details next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM has a nice storm for Ga., SC, and NC on Friday. Edit: A real nice storm for the eastern half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 00z UKMET still wants to make D3-4 interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I really like the timing on the GGEM and hope that is a trend on other models. I'd much rather see this Friday than late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM has a nice storm for Ga., SC, and NC on Friday. Edit: A real nice storm for the eastern half of NC. How does h5 evolve compared to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 How does h5 evolve compared to GFS? I'm not sure...My h5 maps haven't loaded yet. I only have surface maps. It'll be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM has a nice storm for Ga., SC, and NC on Friday. Edit: A real nice storm for the eastern half of NC. I really like the timing on the GGEM and hope that is a trend on other models. I'd much rather see this Friday than late Saturday. And there you go, something specific showing up on the models. I know it is still a ways out, and things can change, but I just feel better about the chance when the models actually have good results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.