Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 does a wet cad mean cold rain? The event spoken of hits between Saturday-Sunday and it's what saves the "snowfall mean" around here. So it would be Wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 does a wet cad mean cold rain? Yes. Or do we get a lot of winter storms with big SE ridges? That's what the GEFS and EPS show day 9+. The EPS was a step backwards for any day 6-8 potential. It's still showing something off the coast but it's not as good as its previous runs. But the GEFS has been way better this winter for events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes. Or do we get a lot of winter storms with big SE ridges? That's what the GEFS and EPS show day 9+. The EPS was a step backwards for any day 6-8 potential. It's still showing something off the coast but it's not as good as its previous runs. But the GEFS has been way better this winter for events.We know , after 9 days , we jump right to summerI'm going to enjoy my last week of winter ! How many issues have we had with the SE ridge this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 All-in for what the JMA shows D4... The JMA always leads the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 All-in for what the JMA shows D4... The JMA always leads the way! Don't forget the DGEX, showing a great day 6 event. NAVGEM showing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Here's my actual take on the situation. We need the Winter weather to happen between Monday-Saturday. After that, things are going to go down hill quickly to be able to get anything. At this point with the way the GEFS looks (members all over the place.. dry, wet, warm, cold, etc) and the EPS barely being saved on the snowfall map by a CAD event at the very end between Sat-Sunday... I literally call a 50/50 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Don't forget the DGEX, showing a great day 6 event. NAVGEM showing anything? Yep. The 12z NAVGEM also has a nice snowstorm D3-4... N-J Rule FTW... The D5-6 storm on the NAVGEM is a little too far suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 To be honest I've lost confidence in the EPS. There have been several times this winter the Op and EPS have shown a storm or certain setup only to lose it the next day. A good example of this is Tuesday of next week. I really like the pattern for next week and our chances for a storm, especially late week. What the EPS shows or doesn't show doesn't affect my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 In a nutshell, guidance doesn't know which shortwave to key on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 To be honest I've lost confidence in the EPS. There have been several times this winter the Op and EPS have shown a storm or certain setup only to lose it the next day. A good example of this is Tuesday of next week. I really like the pattern for next week and our chances for a storm, especially late week. What the EPS shows or doesn't show doesn't affect my thoughts. 100% agree. I get sick of people worshipping at the altar of the EPS. It has made some monumental shifts, even at short range, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 100% agree. I get sick of people worshipping at the altar of the EPS. It has made some monumental shifts, even at short range, this season. It's no joke but the NAVGEM has been better than the Euro OP and EPS, it's been awful in the short/mid/long range, just awful. Still feel like we will get something days 5-8, it would be unlucky if we didn't. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if suppression is an issue for us on this one though. With this potential we need something strong, the ATL to CAE people may do better with this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 All-in for what the JMA shows D4... The JMA always leads the way! Hey the JMA is beating the top models in d4 verification scores lately. I wouldn't just laugh it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 In a nutshell, guidance doesn't know which shortwave to key on. That is probably the post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 CIP's is a who's who of SE winter storms...79/80/04/85 were all great events, and several other ones in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep. The 12z NAVGEM also has a nice snowstorm D3-4... N-J Rule FTW... The D5-6 storm on the NAVGEM is a little too far suppressed. navgem has been great this year. Ukie shows a little love for Tuesday too. All hail king navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z DGEX has an absolute crush job at the end of it's run... Clown map should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM still shows a good snowstorm next weekend Haven't looked at the Euro and EPS yet, going to do so now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18z still suppresses out thurs storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WTH happened? Did the 18z GFS break AmWx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 WTH happened? Did the 18z GFS break AmWx? 1st Friday in Lent and time to give up something -- but NOT weather lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think the 18z GFS broke the board! It looked nice , multiple wintry threats! GSP even speaks on something wintry off and on , from sun night- Wed, basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think the 18z GFS broke the board! It looked nice , multiple wintry threats! GSP even speaks on something wintry off and on , from sun night- Wed, basically Our firewall decided to randomly block a ton of people, including our security service IP which took it down for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not all of that is snow though. It turns to sleet for the upstate, but this far out who knows really. Still a lot of details to work out if there is a storm. Some areas would get destroyed with freezing rain. CAD is impressive with a 1042 HP in the NE. Take a look at these 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Our firewall decided to randomly block a ton of people, including our security service IP which took it down for everyone. Hey it's up, but on real fast broadband, it's taking a long time to load still. Dial up speed. Not complaining - but ya'all may want to check out your ping or something. Phil Delete - Working great now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Not all of that is snow though. It turns to sleet for the upstate, but this far out who knows really. Still a lot of details to work out if there is a storm. Some areas would get destroyed with freezing rain. CAD is impressive with a 1042 HP in the NE. Take a look at these 2m temps. I want my sleet and temps in the teens! Like NC on Monday , so I like that look, the wedge is probly underestimated, like the last one, and most every one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks good although I'm hoping it'll go back to keying on the prior wave ala the GGEM. We'd have HP cover the entire northern half of the US with way more snow coverage . If this past storm were to tell us something, then I'd think the first wave will the the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks good although I'm hoping it'll go back to keying on the prior wave ala the GGEM. We'd have HP cover the entire northern half of the US with way more snow coverage . Yep, agree, playing with fire after Friday. Interesting GEFS has several members with light overrunning event Monday night. NAVGEM had it. UK hints at it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Recall that the Fab Feb storm last year came with a retreating HP offshore. Of course, we also all changed over to something other than snow until the magical ULL came through on the following day. At least a lot of us didn't change over to plain rain like the DC area did (though they got 12"+ of snow). The bad March ice storm also came with a retreating HP, too, for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yep, agree, playing with fire after Friday. Interesting GEFS has several members with light overrunning event Monday night. NAVGEM had it. UK hints at it too. GSP mentions this in AFD this afternoon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TiltedStorm Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The 28/29 storm looking impressive on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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