SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 EURO shows nothing for next weekend at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm starting to get sick of mid-range Euro fantasy storms that never happen. I don't know if I buy all these southern systems yet though. All year storms either fizzle to nothing or amp up and head north, I see nothing in the atmosphere to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't know if I buy all these southern systems yet though. All year storms either fizzle to nothing or amp up and head north, I see nothing in the atmosphere to change that. Have we had a system all winter that has been that far suppressed and just goes out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 EURO shows nothing for next weekend at all? Oh there is something Sunday...a warm rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have we had a system all winter that has been that far suppressed and just goes out to sea?yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 So just to be clear your saying everything keeps getting pushed back yet your taking a pattern collapse as gospel Ok...... LOL...did I say everything? The pattern breakdown isn't getting pushed back, the models have been showing March 1st give or take for several days now. And no, I didn't say there wouldnt be a winter event in the SE next week, just simply said by next weekend the pattern is breaking down so if something is going to happen it better be before then. Edit: And just like that the euro shows a big cutter next weekend, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Have we had a system all winter that has been that far suppressed and just goes out to sea? Yes. We've had a few...but they are rare. Stop trying to ignore the fact that we might not get a system next week. Odds are more favorable to not get one then to actually get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. Suppressed with a lot of cold high pressure to the north...this isn't PV dropping / arctic outbreak suppression...storm track is in the gulf and off the SE coast on the Euro...not far off...good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 EURO shows nothing for next weekend at all? It's showing the pattern change that most are choosing not to believe. Hello spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes. We've had a few...but they are rare. Stop trying to ignore the fact that we might not get a system next week. Odds are more favorable to not get one then to actually get one. I am not ignoring anything. I was just asking if that has happened. But it seems like a lot of folks think the look for next week is good. For the most part the models have been showing something for next week until that last run of the Euro. But of course, that could change for the worse or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. Suppressed with a lot of cold high pressure to the north...this isn't PV dropping / arctic outbreak suppression...storm track is in the gulf and off the SE coast on the Euro...not far off...good pattern YES exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. Suppressed with a lot of cold high pressure to the north...this isn't PV dropping / arctic outbreak suppression...storm track is in the gulf and off the SE coast on the Euro...not far off...good pattern Doesn't that though make a NW trend less likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. Suppressed with a lot of cold high pressure to the north...this isn't PV dropping / arctic outbreak suppression...storm track is in the gulf and off the SE coast on the Euro...not far off...good pattern Yea plenty of time to head north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It's showing the pattern change that most are choosing not to believe. Hello spring... Well unless you ignore the crazy cold air behind that front and all of those highs behind it. That would be more like hello winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro looks fine to me. Suppressed with a lot of cold high pressure to the north...this isn't PV dropping / arctic outbreak suppression...storm track is in the gulf and off the SE coast on the Euro...not far off...good pattern Doesn't that though make a NW trend less likely? The bolded...it's not super cold, super NW flow, dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The OP run might have sucked, but overall I LOVE the pattern we are looking at for next week. I know most would agree, that if we don't score something in there then its over *at least for the foreseeable future* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dunwoody. I'm glad you're not giving up on a nice sleetstorm for next week! It is quite possible imo. Very cold Feb/Nino combo equals a win usually. Keep hope alive. Why give up? The models have proven year after year, they don't know what's happening most times, outside of a few days, if then, and climo says frozen can happen here up until April something. It's best to just look outside from time to time, as nature has a way of doing what it wants, despite our attempts to corral it...or maybe to spite us, lol. There is always much gnashing of teeth, and rending of garments, but that just leaves you toothless and naked And, I'm past the age where I would have found sledding naked to be appealing, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Canadian looks good for Friday. Looks like it gives 4 to 6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro not picture perfect and people start jumping? Just loop through the 00z and tell me why you don't think we'd pop a good low out of this at some point. This is a great pattern and the fantasy storms throughout the winter that never happened were usually alone and by themselves and it wasn't a surprise to see them disappear. I see a different look here, so many storms that want to tap the gulf and get going. About 3-4 in 10 days on the 00z. You can't jump ship due to one run of the Op but everyone does it and it astounds me every time. We have winter until March at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro not picture perfect and people start jumping? Just loop through the 00z and tell me why you don't think we'd pop a good low out of this at some point. This is a great pattern and the fantasy storms throughout the winter that never happened were usually alone and by themselves and it wasn't a surprise to see them disappear. I see a different look here, so many storms that want to tap the gulf and get going. About 3-4 in 10 days on the 00z. You can't jump ship due to one run of the Op but everyone does it and it astounds me every time. We have winter until March at least. This and the disco that stormsfury posted on the previous page. It's one run...relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I expect the EPS to still look pretty good. I took a look at the individual GEFS members and their snowfall etc. There are all kinds of big storms, no storms, light storms. In other words, we can't even use the GEFS right now because it's members are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This and the disco that stormsfury posted on the previous page. It's one run...relaxI tweeted the same thing not long ago! lol https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/568795623123755009Yep we all need to just take a breather and wait for the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 JMA likes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This and the disco that stormsfury posted on the previous page. It's one run...relax Thanks for the plug. Anyway, everyone just sit back right now. Of course, all winter long there hasn't been an accurate face value depiction of surface features mid and long range (and several short range debacles too). Plenty of time. the guidance appears like it's handling f2f tomorrow's system drastically different than what was showing most this week. BAsically, sit back and relax, maybe xut back on the alcohol when viewing them, because the flip-flopping is dizzying enough. As long the depictions are showing the "key ingredients" for next week, it's still in play so to speak, and we're waiting on the right cook (s-w or s-w's) to make the correct recipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The JMA brings the cutoff or whatever out at 120. Not a bad look with storm track by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Thurs-Fri-Sat....that's the general timing window right now on the models with the good, cold high pressure in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 EPS Mean is going to have something. It might be a bit lighter, but still a look of Winter to an extent. Thursday, the Lows are not too badly apart around the Gulf/Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I expect the EPS to still look pretty good. I took a look at the individual GEFS members and their snowfall etc. There are all kinds of big storms, no storms, light storms. In other words, we can't even use the GEFS right now because it's members are all over the place. Shawn, Good call! The 12Z EPS has not one but two sig. storms: - Miller A 2/25-6 - very wet CAD 2/28-3/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Through day 9 for KCAE area: 19 members with 2" +. Some monsters in there. 39 members with anything Wintry looking at all. These numbers are actually lower than before, but the mean has slightly increased due to a couple big ones. We were at 49/51... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Shawn, Good call! The 12Z EPS has not one but two sig. storms: - Miller A 2/25-6 - very wet CAD 2/28-3/1 does a wet cad mean cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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