Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last Mondays storm says Hello! Went to supression worries , before going up to a WV low, ended up in the middle at the end. Yep, always take suppression over jackpot at this point. A.l.w.a.y.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Last Mondays storm says Hello! Went to supression worries , before going up to a WV low, ended up in the middle at the end. Yep, always take suppression over jackpot at this point. A.l.w.a.y.s. Actually if we were basing it off Monday we'd be taking a cutter to trend towards a suppressed solution. haha. WPC gives us some love for Wed morning though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amazing that anyone can be less excited about next week after 24 hrs lol. You have the GEFS that support a storm in Wed/Thu period and the eps has a few threats. The GFS , GGEM and euro are all wave trains . Best shot we've had all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amazing that anyone can be less excited about next week after 24 hrs lol. You have the GEFS that support a storm in Wed/Thu period and the eps has a few threats. The GFS , GGEM and euro are all wave trains . Best shot we've had all year Agree 100%. I don't know what storm we're talking about above, anyway. I know it's not the Saturday one. Everything I looked at on the GFS looked suppressed for next week, which is exactly where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yep, always take suppression over jackpot at this point. A.l.w.a.y.s. Certainly. Though it's the GEFS ensembles in complete agreement with supression, the southern location of the strong high pressure, and the more southern location of the jet stream (especially for Tuesday system) that has me thinking too suppressed could be on the table. Late next week I still think is a different ball game. We'll see. I hope the EURO finally wins out here. Edit to clarify, yeah...I'm referring more to the early week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Certainly. Though it's the GEFS ensembles in complete agreement with supression, the southern location of the strong high pressure, and the more southern location of the jet stream (especially for Tuesday system) that has me thinking too suppressed could be on the table. Late next week I still think is a different ball game. We'll see. I hope the EURO finally wins out here. Edit to clarify, yeah...I'm referring more to the early week system. It definitely could end up being too suppressed. I don't know what it is about the medium and LR that the models tend to overestimate cold and trough penetration. But that seems to always be the case. It may not end up working in our favor here, but I'll take my chances with a suppressed system at D4 + than one that's perfect or north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Actually if we were basing it off Monday we'd be taking a cutter to trend towards a suppressed solution. haha. WPC gives us some love for Wed morning though Dang! Too fast for me Jon! i deleted my post and defer to your's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 All in for next week! Temps don't look as cold as I would hope, but just cold enough, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ^ I wish that was the map with the counties on it. I love seeing the gradient through Wake. Every map has it in the same place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amazing that anyone can be less excited about next week after 24 hrs lol. You have the GEFS that support a storm in Wed/Thu period and the eps has a few threats. The GFS , GGEM and euro are all wave trains . Best shot we've had all year Agree met. The details are murky about the timing and location of storms, but it's a pretty good pattern. It's never going to be slam dunk easy down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that's a yucky map for Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that's a yucky map for CharlotteEven yuckier for you, you are in the Carrollton snow hole! Zero for you!I'm all in for Tuesday ! Get it over with, see some snow, and not have to sweat the Thursday / Sat timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Even yuckier for you, you are in the Carrollton snow hole! Zero for you! I'm all in for Tuesday ! Get it over with, see some snow, and not have to sweat the Thursday / Sat timeframe waycross gets more snow than me ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Intrigued by what the euro and GEFS is showing for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Intrigued by what the euro and GEFS is showing for early next week. 06z gefs is a thing of beauty for the tue/weds system. cant ask for a better look this far out. 12z is running now, lets see if it holds serve. not sure i want to see it trend nw until sunday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Intrigued by what the euro and GEFS is showing for early next week. 12Z GFS running as we speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You can already see through 72 hours the GFS doesn't dig the northern stream energy as far SW as the Euro does, so it's going to be a miss for the Tues/Wed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 But it's ejecting the SW low quicker, again. It seems like every run it get's a little more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS looks like a whiff. Energy slide offshore from about SAV, shooting ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that map took a significant turn for the worse for SC. Snow chances done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that map took a significant turn for the worse for SC. Snow chances done. lol If the DGEX came close to verifying during winter, I think everybody in the SE would hate snow by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that map took a significant turn for the worse for SC. Snow chances done. Lol. Why would you believe a map that will change multiple times and is far from accurate at this time range? Hell they can't even get the forecast right for today let alone next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is trying but it scoots that energy out west way too fast and kind of just turns it into a positively titled mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS may be setting up better late week...let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It does have another piece of energy screaming out of California that might turn into something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS may be setting up better late week...let's see If that northern energy drops to phase we'll be golden later on in the week. Love how the flow goes supper progressive at the snap of a finger on the GFS (note my sarcasm here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS may be setting up better late week...let's see The GFS and Euro are so different at 72-84 hours. If you blended them with the GFS kicking out the SW low and the Euro digging the northern stream energy further SW at day 4 we might have something for a mid-week deal. As of now, we are waiting on another SW low day 6 to evolve on the GFS>.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The sfc high coming into the northern plains in wed-thurs timeframe has looked the best all along...need to sync a storm with that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 5h looks nice at 147...energy digging into the southwest, big high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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