superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro has the 2/24 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro 2-3" of snow north GA to ATL Tuesday. But they way these models are so different and inconsistent I will believe it when I see it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro 2-3" of snow north GA to ATL Tuesday. But they way these models are so different and inconsistent I will believe it when I see it.... Agreed...EURO has been trying on this one tho...Don't look now, tho here comes the big dawg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Drunk Doc says.....INCOMING!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 oh boy! 2m temps are a smidge warm, but whatever this far out, but it looks like Snow or something wintry from Central MS to Central GA and North by 00z FRI. Again, **LOOKS** close but verbatim might be a smidge warm, but who cares about that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Check PLEASE!!!!! HR 174, looks VERY GOOD!! Again** temps are iffy at 2m or whatever, but I ain't worried about that right now. This setup has super potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 New Euro crushes New England again, so what else is new. Also looking extremely interesting for the SE in 7 days with more snow for north GA. Utterly different than the GFS is all respects. What a horrible pattern for any sort of predictability....luckily I am still on vacation and do not have to deal with it for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like DOC is gonna have another threat D9-10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro's 2/24 storm hammers Boston, so that's probably legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like DOC is gonna have another threat D9-10 as well. Yes, but ice, at least for GA. I will be happy if one of these threats verifies, 3 is too much to hope for. EDIT: wow the fantasy Doc is a crushing ice storm for many. Really hope that is not correct, that would be pretty devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yes, but ice, at least for GA. I will be happy if one of these threats verifies, 3 is too much to hope for. ice in March is about as common as a snowstorm in July. I think the last time ATL had a March ice storm was about 55 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ice in March is about as common as a snowstorm in July. I think the last time ATL had a March ice storm was about 55 years ago. I understand how it's easy to go on the side of History, but analogs and all that good stuff didn't exactly work as planned this year. I think anything is possible. There are multiple threats (waves) back to back etc etc on modeling and has been. Some threats are marginal, but the idea of Winter weather being possible for us is very real. I expect yet another good looking EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro looks like pingermageddon here after some snow to start with temps mostly in the mid-20s. Interesting. Quite the QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ice in March is about as common as a snowstorm in July. I think the last time ATL had a March ice storm was about 55 years ago. True, but anything seems to be possible in this crazy winter- look at New England, BOS is probably going to have their snowiest season on record etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Let's just have at least one of the two snow threats verify before wasting too much bandwidth on day 9-10 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro total snowfall map scares me.. knowing the big ice storm at the end. ;/ IT'S BIG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ice in March is about as common as a snowstorm in July. I think the last time ATL had a March ice storm was about 55 years ago. I don't think anything about the fantasy system the Euro has at D9-10, but ice is also rare in March here, but that didn't stop us from having the worst ice storm (and a ton of sleet) since 2002 IMBY last March 6th-7th (from a Miller A with the HP sliding OTS, no less). History is great, but there are always exceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 what about the Monday Tuesday threat, GSP shows nothing but all the media on tv all channels show the mtns. with snow monday and tuesday. confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ice in March is about as common as a snowstorm in July. I think the last time ATL had a March ice storm was about 55 years ago. That's not true. The last major ATL March ZR storm was 3/25/1971. Yes. 3/25!! That storm produced a huge snow far NE GA into W NC. **Edited for careless error: ATL had 4 major ZR's during March, alone, during the period 1948-71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think these storms would be more likely to be sheered into nothing vs. a giant southern slide that misses most of us. The sliders that have occurred tend to be weak and the low going south of ATL to CAE then off the coast. Climo this year has tended to make storms either a Miller B/Cutter or nothing. I'll be interested to see how Tuesday trends. This year cutoffs have come out faster and stronger than modeled from the west and the PV tends to not be as strong as modeled 5 days out. I don't buy the Euro past 200 hours at all how it drops the PV down and just lets it rot away in the midwest. That hasn't happened all winter and I don't expect it to happen now. Euro does look realistic to me on Tuesday it keeps the low weak and just shifts it out to sea to blow up into a noreaster....though anytime you're depending on northern energy it gets sketchy for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I think these storms would be more likely to be sheered into nothing vs. a giant southern slide that misses most of us. The sliders that have occurred tend to be weak and the low going south of ATL to CAE then off the coast. Climo this year has tended to make storms either a Miller B/Cutter or nothing. I'll be interested to see how Tuesday trends. This year cutoffs have come out faster and stronger than modeled from the west and the PV tends to not be as strong as modeled 5 days out. I don't buy the Euro past 200 hours at all how it drops the PV down and just lets it rot away in the midwest. That hasn't happened all winter and I don't expect it to happen now. Euro does look realistic to me on Tuesday it keeps the low weak and just shifts it out to sea to blow up into a noreaster....though anytime you're depending on northern energy it gets sketchy for the south. Just FYI: All but three of the 32 MAJOR Miller A snows/sleets in Atlanta (32 of 39 from Miller A's) since the late 1800's were produced by a low with a lowest pressure of 1000+ mb while still in the Gulf. Many of them were 1010+ and as high as 1020 while still in the Gulf. Two were 995-999 and then there was the 976ish 1993 Storm of the Century. Generally, a winding up low before leaving the Gulf leads to too much WAA in many cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GSP leaning toward the wetter ECMWF for Tuesday. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HPC GUIDE FOR THIS FCST WHICH FAVORS THE WETTER ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Euro snow map from last night for the day 5 potential. Not surprising with the differences in the models at day 5-7, we have seen it all winter so hard to take this serious. But the EPS again has 2 events showing for wintery weather, this day 5 event and a day 8 or so event. The GEFS memmbers have nothing for day 5, but has several hits between day 6-7, actually several suppressed hits day 6-7. The UK does favor the Euro solution, it does have a light event day 5 and has a weak gulf low day 6 showing. The Euro has gotten it's butt kicked all year with events at this range, I would suspect it probably will again and this day 5 event will evaporate and we will be left to look at what happens when the SW low does come out and if something can phase with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Anyone else see the Euro ensemble means for days 7 to 9? Ridiculous! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just FYI: All but three of the 32 MAJOR Miller A snows/sleets in Atlanta (32 of 39 from Miller A's) since the late 1800's were produced by a low with a lowest pressure of 1000+ mb while still in the Gulf. Many of them were 1010+ and as high as 1020 while still in the Gulf. Two were 995-999 and then there was the 976ish 1993 Storm of the Century. Generally, a winding up low before leaving the Gulf leads to too much WAA in many cases. Yea in reality during winter how often has a storm taken a Miller A track and blown up to that 995 LP? Obviously for ATL it isn't much and it isn't much for the Carolinas. I like the overrunning weak low events much better though for my own selfish interest I kind of don't like them since they usually jackpot folks to my south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Looks like mid-week is 3 to 5 for wake county on the euro and the late week system is sleet to icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RAH disco:ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST BECOMES EXTREMELY LOWCONFIDENCE AS SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY REGARDING A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVECOMING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVING UP THE EASTCOAST...POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE CWA ONTUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE 00ZGFS AND ECMWF PAINT A VERY STARKLY CONTRASTING BEST/WORST (DEPENDINGON YOUR POINT OF VIEW) CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL NC. BECAUSE THEDETAILS ARE SO MURKY AT THIS POINT THE SHORT OF IT IS THAT THE GFSIS COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF HAS A COASTAL LOWBRINGING SNOW TO ALL OF CENTRAL NC TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. DIGGINGINTO THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF THESE TWO MODELS...THE TRUTH LIKELYWILL LAY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AS THE GFS IS A FAR EASTERN OUTLIER(AND THUS DRY)...AND THE ECMWF IS A FAR WESTERN OUTLIER (THUS SNOW).WHAT WE DO KNOW IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IF...DRAMATIC PAUSE...WEWERE TO GET PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF ITWOULD BE SNOW AS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE IS DOWN ALONG THE COAST ANDTHERE IS GOOD SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE. BECAUSE OF THEWIDE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES...WILL COVER IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OFSNOW IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS AND EVERYTHING ELSE WILL DEPEND ON THETRACK OF THE LOW...IF THERE IS ONE...BUT GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE 30SAND LOWS IN THE 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z EPS mean seems to be a bit more suppressed than the 12z from yesterday and the cluster of the lows also more S & E off the coast for the 2/25 system. Not sure if this is where we want to be right now or not...could just end up being an OTS system and the GFS being dry may be right. We'll see. I'm excited about the 10-day pattern though for sure.Edit: typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 00z EPS mean seems to be a bit more suppressed than the 12z from yesterday and the cluster of the lows also more S & E off the coast for the 2/25 system. Not sure if this is where we want to be right now our not...could just end up being an OTS system and the GFS being try may be right. We'll see. I'm excited about the 10-day pattern though for sure. Yeah I agree. Not as excited for next week as yesterday. Things are trending toward supression/poor timing. I don't like the fact that the GEFS is even suppressed for next week. I wouldn't be suprised if the EURO trended more supressed today. I still think late next week is our best/last hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Yeah I agree. Not as excited for next week as yesterday. Things are trending toward supression/poor timing. I don't like the fact that the GEFS is even suppressed for next week. I wouldn't be suprised if the EURO trended more supressed today. I still think late next week is our best/last hope though. Last Mondays storm says Hello! Went to supression worries , before going up to a WV low, ended up in the middle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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