Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

It sounds like there seems to be some overall excitement about next week. But it seems like it sounds as if the models are uncertain. It sounds like we were supposed to be getting more snow next weekend, but it seems like the models are maybe not showing as much anymore. It seems like the models have a hard time keeping the storm but it sounds like there's still a possibility but it's not looking so hot right now, I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It sounds like there seems to be some overall excitement about next week. But it seems like it sounds as if the models are uncertain. It sounds like we were supposed to be getting more snow next weekend, but it seems like the models are maybe not showing as much anymore. It seems like the models have a hard time keeping the storm but it sounds like there's still a possibility but it's not looking so hot right now, I guess.

You are getting wayyyy to good at that    :P    :yikes:  

 

The 18z gfs brings back my sprinkles on Monday   :D 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DGEX clobbers Virginia. Looks good for I-85 north and west in nc and the upstate of sc. Someone should post the clown map for entertainment purposes.

Another biblical storm from the dgex.  A broken clock is right twice a day, right???  Still waiting to see it put lollipops of 100" somewhere.

 

4kCqjB9.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point, certain features can swing hundreds of miles in any direction from run to run.  As long as we see the main elements still in place, we will have a good chance.  

 

It constantly amazes me that, even after just having a storm that clearly demonstrated the above, some people still fixate on details over a week out. If some members of our forum were shepherds, the story of the boy who cried wolf could never have been written.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is the DGEX predisposed towards only showing biblical snowstorms with epic QPF? It seems like it never shows run-of-the-mill winter storms. It's either 20" or nothing.

 

Right, but if it were a normal model it just wouldn't be the dgex.  It's our "special" model.

 

But in all seriousness, is there any value to this model?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like it's going to be too suppressed.

 

It is...Makes the turn but looks to be wide right.  More energy coming in from the west.

 

Edit:  Strange run tonight.  Looks completely different that previous runs.  It could still bring a storm on day 9 but doesn't look right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If next week were to go like the 0z gfs I would pin my hopes on the storm it showed for Thursday.  We have all the energy from the cutoff in that storm.  We also have the PV rotating south and east to supply some cold air.  There ends up being a Saturday storm also w/ a lot of energy that phased together but our HP is sliding off the coast and the PV has rotated further north.  I'm still not sure the GFS is correct w/ it's solution tonight.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If next week were to go like the 0z gfs I would pin my hopes on the storm it showed for Thursday.  We have all the energy from the cutoff in that storm.  We also have the PV rotating south and east to supply some cold air.  There ends up being a Saturday storm also w/ a lot of energy that phased together but our HP is sliding off the coast and the PV has rotated further north.  I'm still not sure the GFS is correct w/ it's solution tonight.  

The perfect world is in between those 2.  The GFS is 1 day too quick with kicking out the southwest low.  It was slower on last night's big 00z run.  Models have been trending quicker with that southwest low, but have been fairly consistent with the timing of the cold high coming down mid-late week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The perfect world is in between those 2.  The GFS is 1 day too quick with kicking out the southwest low.  It was slower on last night's big 00z run.  Models have been trending quicker with that southwest low, but have been fairly consistent with the timing of the cold high coming down mid-late week.

 

I agree Grit...The canadian opens up the Southwest low at hr 123 and starts moving it east.  I like the timing better but we'll see where it goes.  I'm only out to hr 135.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...