burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CMC is VERY close to a BIG hit for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Northern and southern energy phase just a hair too late but still gives a lot of NC a nice dump of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm guessing CMC clown maps will be 3-6 maybe 4-8 for CLT to RDU for the 2/5 - 2/6 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAVGEM is a thing of beauty, It drops the hammer on us at 168hrs.. perfect high pressure position with a strengethening low in the gulf... looks similar to the CMC. I'm starting to get excited about this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm guessing CMC clown maps will be 3-6 maybe 4-8 for CLT to RDU for the 2/5 - 2/6 storm. It would have to be timed just right. But if it was and we don't get snow w/ that setup and track, I give up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the 12z GGEM is close to a foot here. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the 12z GGEM is close to a foot here. LOL. I would guess a lot of what falls verbatim in NC the CMC would be sleet but it's pointless arguing about that now lol....dynamic cooling all that jazz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the 12z GGEM is close to a foot here. LOL. It's a Brick special...I can't believe you guys are getting sucked in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I would guess a lot of what falls verbatim in NC the CMC would be sleet but it's pointless arguing about that now lol....dynamic cooling all that jazz. I dunno. Looking at 1000-500 mb and 850-700 mb thicknesses, they look okay after the changeover to me (at least for N NC). The 1300 thickness line crashes pretty well as does the 540 line. At hr 144 the 1300 line is just NW of GSO and by hr 150 its down past Fayetteville. The 540 line is not as good, but still crashes towards GSO and 543s are down further south (which is often good enough in the South... sometimes even 546). I don't know how good the RaleighWx P-type calculator is, but it has quite a bit of sleet down around Fayetteville, NC and Florence, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a Brick special...I can't believe you guys are getting sucked in on this one. Too bad that isn't 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a Brick special...I can't believe you guys are getting sucked in on this one. I'm in...That's a foot for our backyard pack! C'mon, one more time this winter for old time sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Too bad that isn't 3 days out.Too bad it will change at 18z! And you know winter has been rough when people are bringing up NAVGEM and CMC, next we will be posting DGEX maps, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is taking the CMC seriously. What it does show is the potential for that time period. What can happen if our energy comes together right as well as the cold. That's all we can hope for. Either way ears should be perking at the fact the GFS and CMC both have winter weather in the SE. Hopefully we can just beat the trend once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm in...That's a foot for our backyard pack! C'mon, one more time this winter for old time sake. LOL, I don't think so. Atleast it may be wet, I mean we haven't seen that this winter. On the plus side you have 2 models that generally agree on a winter storm next week in the SE, the bad news is they are the two worst models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, I don't think so. Atleast it may be wet, I mean we haven't seen that this winter. On the plus side you have 2 models that generally agree on a winter storm next week in the SE, the bad news is they are the two worst models. It sounded like the GFS wasn't too far off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is taking the CMC seriously. What it does show is the potential for that time period. What can happen if our energy comes together right as well as the cold. That's all we can hope for. Either way ears should be perking at the fact the GFS and CMC both have winter weather in the SE. Hopefully we can just beat the trend once this winter. Yeah, the main thing is that most of the modeling shows verbatim snow for some in that period... That's more than we can say for anything in the D7 timeframe up to this point in the winter. Before, we were wishcasting storms north/south, saying 850s were too warm, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It sounded like the GFS wasn't too far off, though. The 12z GEFS is much faster with southern wave, no amplification, but there is a low off the coast. The HP hasn't made it yet and thus it's to warm, similar to the Op. Edit: The 6z GEFS had 2 out of 21 members that had snow in the SE, neither looked like the CMC. I haven't looked at the Euro ENS from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't think anyone is taking the CMC seriously. What it does show is the potential for that time period. What can happen if our energy comes together right as well as the cold. That's all we can hope for. Either way ears should be perking at the fact the GFS and CMC both have winter weather in the SE. Hopefully we can just beat the trend once this winter. I agree burger...I'm not really taking the cmc seriously, just kidding around w/ pack. I will say I've been watching this time/system and all have been close but it was nice to finally see a model show an actual storm. The timing is going to have to be perfect though. The good ole threading the needle type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The ukie I posted from last night showed potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 12z GEFS is much faster with southern wave, no amplification, but there is a low off the coast. The HP hasn't made it yet and thus it's to warm, similar to the Op. Edit: The 6z GEFS had 2 out of 21 members that had snow in the SE, neither looked like the CMC. I haven't looked at the Euro ENS from last night. IM more interested in the second vort diving behind the main system on the GFS . Clearly the GFS and GEFS are much faster moving the southern stream along vs the GGEM. But if the vort behind it can god a little more it might be interesting like the GFS showed. There is a LITTLE support for this senario on the 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You're going to see changes on the Euro for 2/5 - 2/6 storm. Much slower with the southern wave at 5h...northern energy looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You're going to see changes on the Euro for 2/5 - 2/6 storm. Much slower with the southern wave at 5h...northern energy looks better.So the cold may get in ahead of the storm , if southern stream is slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro much closer to something big. Cold is chasing out ahead of our vort. We'll see if it can keep moving forward and not get squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Your might make the phase in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So the cold may get in ahead of the storm , if southern stream is slower? Well yes...plus the PV is a lot strong compared to 00z on this run allowing for the colder air to come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 @144 this is close to a perfect setup. Moisture crossing over FL with cold air starting to press down into NC. Not sure if it can turn the corner in time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Energy doesn't hold long enough...storm suppressed. Probably exactly where we want to be right now. This was a big shift in the right direction though from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No storm in the Euro- sorry. Completely suppresed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like the Canadian wasn't off its rocker with the slower system. Unfortunately, the Euro is too much and crushes our storm. Good shift after last night's steamroom storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No storm in the Euro- sorry. Completely suppresedIt won't keep that look, so no worries , it hasn't all winter. Tonight's Euro will probly show an Ohio valley track,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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