dsaur Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:39 AM, DixieBlizzard said: Good point Tony. Greg, I actually think you have a chance to end up with my point forecast, lol. Didn't you get zr and ip this last time? The way that front draped almost parallel to the gulf, meant it'd never get cold here until well past the rain, but you got some of the cad push didn't you? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:58 PM, AirNelson39 said: Can't believe no one is talking about this weekends storm, GFS has nearly 8" in Boone...that'd be the biggest storm of the season by far and even has the foothills in the 2-4" rangeThe chatter will pickup tonight, if the models are still barking. Been an awesome week. Winter storm, record cold and of all things a clipper surviving over the mtns. This is a shot where taking with house money this weekend for a select group of posters. Next week if we can get just a little luck timing wiseTues through Friday could be an awesome going out party as winter gets ready to start closing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:57 AM, NCSNOW said: The chatter will pickup tonight, if the models are still barking. Been an awesome week. Winter storm, record cold and of all things a clipper surviving over the mtns. This is a shot where taking with house money this weekend for a select group of posters. Next week if we can get just a little luck timing wiseTues through Friday could be an awesome going out party as winter gets ready to start closing out. I could go for a chase if my volunteering service get cancelled Saturday. Boone will do much better than Asheville, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:54 AM, dsaur said: Greg, I actually think you have a chance to end up with my point forecast, lol. Didn't you get zr and ip this last time? The way that front draped almost parallel to the gulf, meant it'd never get cold here until well past the rain, but you got some of the cad push didn't you? T Tony, I got nada. When I got home, it was 34F and 38F when I went to bed. I noticed on my drive to work yesterday and today, the icing really began where HWY 20 and 108 intersect in Cherokee Cty. The ridge that the Cherokee Cty Airport sits on got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 well, we got some people some wintry weather, can we spread the wealth now? I really like the potential with the pattern for the next 7-14 days. Next week looks HIGHLY interesting. Take a look at the video. Thanks https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 11:58 PM, AirNelson39 said: Can't believe no one is talking about this weekends storm, GFS has nearly 8" in Boone...that'd be the biggest storm of the season by far and even has the foothills in the 2-4" range Hey AirNelson...This weekends storm has its own thread. Good luck, I hope you get the goods! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45776-february-20th-21st-winter-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 1:18 AM, rduwx said: Hey AirNelson...This weekends storm has its own thread. Good luck, I hope you get the goods! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45776-february-20th-21st-winter-storm-threat/ Must have over looked it thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:53 AM, packbacker said: I counted 18 of 21 GEFS members that had snow in the SE days 6-8. 13 of the 21 were "big" winter storms. Here is the mean and a member of the day... I don't know if that's technically possible anymore....that second map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 12:53 AM, packbacker said: I counted 18 of 21 GEFS members that had snow in the SE days 6-8. 13 of the 21 were "big" winter storms. Here is the mean and a member of the day... Sup, Carolina Crusher? Shall we meet again? It's our 15-year anniversary, baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 1:22 AM, Cold Rain said: I don't know if that's technically possible anymore....that second map. Heck, it could even take a bit of the dreaded NW trend and we'd be good. It's a DGEX wannabee. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Here's a comparison of the big 4 operational models at hr144, next Tues morning (18z GFS at hr138). Key features for a big dog are the PV lobe / cold vortex just NW of the Great Lakes, and the closed low over California / desert southwest. In a perfect world, the cold vortex slowly rotates southeast through the Great Lakes, then over Northern New England and SE Canada...Cold High pressure builds into the Great Lakes behind this feature....Meanwhile, the California low kicks out and spawns a Gulf Low in concert with cold air in place. Obviously, it's a long way out, but the nice thing here is that these are large scale features as currently modeled, and not a setup reliant on less predictable fast moving features in the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:00 AM, griteater said: Here's a comparison of the big 4 operational models at hr144, next Tues morning (18z GFS at hr138). Key features for a big dog are the PV lobe / cold vortex just NW of the Great Lakes, and the closed low over California / desert southwest. In a perfect world, the cold vortex slowly rotates southeast through the Great Lakes, then over Northern New England and SE Canada...Cold High pressure builds into the Great Lakes behind this feature....Meanwhile, the California low kicks out and spawns a Gulf Low in concert with cold air in place. Obviously, it's a long way out, but the nice thing here is that these are large scale features as currently modeled, and not a setup reliant on less predictable fast moving features in the flow. Man at that southern jet! This looks like a real deal big dog! And only 7 days out. That sprawling high in the plains is a real beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Grit, I shared that image elsewhere (with credit to you ofcourse). That is an amazing sight to see for the potential heading into next week. The big 4 globals are matching up, and the UKMET doing pretty well last storm hypes me up agreeing with the other three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 2:19 AM, Shawn said: Grit, I shared that image elsewhere (with credit to you ofcourse). That is an amazing sight to see for the potential heading into next week. The big 4 globals are matching up, and the UKMET doing pretty well last storm hypes me up agreeing with the other three. No problem at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 0z gfs south and east again w/ the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 4:13 AM, rduwx said: 0z gfs south and east again w/ the Tuesday storm.Really good look, fresh cold air in front ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think the gfs is setting up the day 9 storm. We'll see where it goes but we have energy dropping from the northern stream and a piece of energy that split off the baja low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I think Tuesday still has a good look for us, even squashed as it looks on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 4:29 AM, mackerel_sky said: I think Tuesday still has a good look for us, even squashed as it looks on 0z I like the look better now the GL low is further north up in Oh Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looks like the GFS is about to go WOOF for D9. 9 days away. All-in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 4:27 AM, rduwx said: I think the gfs is setting up the day 9 storm. We'll see where it goes but we have energy dropping from the northern stream and a piece of energy that split off the baja low. Nevermind...It's bringing out the whole baja low at 207. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That's a big dog staring us down at 216. I like the looks of this one. Big 50/50 low setting up with HP all over the top. At 225 you've got it snowing from the panhandle of OK to the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 4:40 AM, Wow said: That's a big dog staring us down at 216. I like the looks of this one. Big 50/50 low setting up with HP all over the top. Yeah, it's about all we could ask for w/ the exception of it being 24 hours away instead of 216...LOL Atlanta big dawg incoming in at 225. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Looking at the 500mb maps, this is the perfect setup for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The GFS and GGEM look like a classic AL and GA snow event at 108-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Atlanta folks gotta love the look of this! Unfortunately entertainment only at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 wow, that's a beautiful, slowly rotating PV low that setups that beautiful sfc high....da-um Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 On 2/19/2015 at 4:40 AM, Wow said: That's a big dog staring us down at 216. I like the looks of this one. Big 50/50 low setting up with HP all over the top. At 225 you've got it snowing from the panhandle of OK to the NC coast. Not that it really matters, but it's ridiculously cold, too. The NC Piedmont is in the teens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Good god Atlanta is getting plastered. What I wouldn't give to see that look 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Been awhile since ive seen a control run like that. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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