mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:02 PM, MariettaWx said: It's time for a thread on the Friday-Saturday storm when the NWS starts talking dirty like this. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 240 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LATE WEEK WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET EARLY FRIDAY AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS CONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FOR NOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS TRANSITION OF P-TYPES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA. THIS TRANSITION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SATURDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT ERODES...ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 0.5-1 INCH ACROSS THE ATL METRO AREA...AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND 2-4 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL/ICE AMOUNTS. Wow ! That is bold! 1 inch for ATL , that's almost 100% of climo! Snowstorm11 won't have to chase a u turn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:05 PM, mackerel_sky said: Wow ! That is bold! 1 inch for ATL , that's almost 100% of climo! Snowstorm11 won't have to chase a u turn!lol.. has he posted in awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:05 PM, mackerel_sky said: Wow ! That is bold! 1 inch for ATL , that's almost 100% of climo! Snowstorm11 won't have to chase a u turn!And being in the upstate we love to hear Ga start talking like this especially us in the western upstate! Im getting more excited about this weekends threat that I did with this one. Its sure looking like we could get snow out of this weekends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Here are the ens forecasts. This is not going to be the same system as the one we just had Canadian: GFS Euro still hasnt come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:09 PM, Bsudweather said: And being in the upstate we love to hear Ga start talking like this especially us in the western upstate! Im getting more excited about this weekends threat that I did with this one. Its sure looking like we could get snow out of this weekends.Meh, this is a weird trajectory and I'm gonna wait till Friday and see what shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Again the 12z EPS is very bullish on a day 7-8 coastal, has 2-6" on the across most of NC, NW SC, and N-GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:02 PM, MariettaWx said: It's time for a thread on the Friday-Saturday storm when the NWS starts talking dirty like this. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 240 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LATE WEEK WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET EARLY FRIDAY AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THIS CONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. FOR NOW...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SNOW AT THE ONSET ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO HIGHLIGHT THIS TRANSITION OF P-TYPES AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA. THIS TRANSITION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE SATURDAY AND HOW QUICKLY IT ERODES...ALLOWING FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 0.5-1 INCH ACROSS THE ATL METRO AREA...AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND 2-4 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL/ICE AMOUNTS. Couple of camps on this one, will it evolve better for snow lovers or worse. Could FFC be going all in because of yesterday. Couple of days of model runs to sort through, the positive is the much stronger and real CAD as previously mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Euro ensemble mean puts down 2" to roughly i-20 in Georgia and 85 in the upstate. 4-6 for wnc mtns. This is for the Friday/Saturday deal. Control is even more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 But why would you want 1 to 3 inches if it just going to rain and wash it all way??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:18 PM, WXinCanton said: But why would you want 1 to 3 inches if it just going to rain and wash it all way??? I just shoveled my driveway, I would love if it rained tonight and washed it all away. Someone needs to create a separate thread for this Friday/Sat deal, every model has it for N-GA, NW-SC and western-NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:16 PM, franklin NCwx said: Euro ensemble mean puts down 2" to roughly i-20 in Georgia and 85 in the upstate. 4-6 for wnc mtns. This is for the Friday/Saturday deal. Control is even more bullish. I'll be in CLT Fro/Sat! GSP will probably get 2-3 inches! Seems like the closer to GA you are for this weekend , the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:14 PM, packbacker said: Again the 12z EPS is very bullish on a day 7-8 coastal, has 2-6" on the across most of NC, NW SC, and N-GA. So has the threat been pushed back to Tues and Wed next week? I thought at one time there was a threat for Monday. With so many things showing up in the next 7 days it is hard to keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 FWIW, the Euro control is a little better and more east with the snow Saturday. Also, there are a few pretty good EPS members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Big differences will be much colder air, likely the coldest maybe in 30 years is coming in plus more solid wedging this go around. Look what the in-situ cold air did to the storm track with this previous system. Going to be an interesting time before this winter season concludes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:05 PM, mackerel_sky said: Wow ! That is bold! 1 inch for ATL , that's almost 100% of climo! Snowstorm11 won't have to chase a u turn! I was about to ask why everyone keeps trolling him but then I realized he keeps taking the bait. I will believe the models when I actually see snow falling from the sky. With this one, if nothing else, everything will stick since Thursday and Friday will be below freezing with possible lows in the single digits. It always worries me to see snow have to cross Lookout Mountain since it gobbles up the moisture. It has happened before but it is usually 1-1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:28 PM, Brick Tamland said: So has the threat been pushed back to Tues and Wed next week? I thought at one time there was a threat for Monday. With so many things showing up in the next 7 days it is hard to keep up. We have the Wednesday Whimper, the Friday Failstorm, and the Monday Misser. That help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:29 PM, msuwx said: FWIW, the Euro control is a little better and more east with the snow Saturday. Also, there are a few pretty good EPS members in there. How Far East Matt? Do they still have moisture in Mtns and N. Foothills? I'm on my phone can't pull models up to see, not good enough signal. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:29 PM, msuwx said: FWIW, the Euro control is a little better and more east with the snow Saturday. Also, there are a few pretty good EPS members in there. Yeah, looks like the control sneaks some wintry weather into the northern Piedmont and foothills. Even the EPS mean gets the 2" line to INT or GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:28 PM, Brick Tamland said: So has the threat been pushed back to Tues and Wed next week? I thought at one time there was a threat for Monday. With so many things showing up in the next 7 days it is hard to keep up. No, it's always been Tues-Wed potential. It's been consistently showing on the mean for several runs now...keep in mind this includes the Friday/Sat deal for w-NC, GA, SC, TN...for places east of GSO what is showing is just be all for the day 7-8 deal. Looks to be 4-5" for RDU at day 7 is impressive for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:33 PM, Cold Rain said: We have the Wednesday Whimper, the Friday Failstorm, and the Monday Misser. That help? I don't know what people see in the forecast for this weekend honestly. Gonna be Snow -> Sleet -> Freezing Rain -> Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:38 PM, packbacker said: No, it's always been Tues-Wed potential. It's been consistently showing on the mean for several runs now...keep in mind this includes the Friday/Sat deal for w-NC, GA, SC, TN...for places east of GSO what is showing is just be all for the day 7-8 deal. Looks to be 4-5" for RDU at day 7 is impressive for a mean. Don't get Brick's hopes up with images like that unless, wait, is there blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:40 PM, mp184qcr said: I don't know what people see in the forecast for this weekend honestly. Gonna be Snow -> Sleet -> Freezing Rain -> Rain While that is probably correct why diminish the fact some places in the mountains may receive their heaviest snowfall of the season? Maybe the sun wont be strong enough to fuel the precip and it will diminish with nightfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:40 PM, mp184qcr said: I don't know what people see in the forecast for this weekend honestly. Gonna be Snow -> Sleet -> Freezing Rain -> Rain snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:36 PM, BIG FROSTY said: How Far East Matt? Do they still have moisture in Mtns and N. Foothills? I'm on my phone can't pull models up to see, not good enough signal. TIA Yes, your area does pretty well. To me, this is a weird setup for Saturday..... tough to get a good feel on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 This is NOT the banter thread.....keep it on topic Now back to your regular scheduled program...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:40 PM, mp184qcr said: I don't know what people see in the forecast for this weekend honestly. Gonna be Snow -> Sleet -> Freezing Rain -> Rain And that is exactly what they see: It will be snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain (maybe). If you already know what they see, then why did you ask the question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:41 PM, Cold Rain said: Don't get Brick's hopes up with images like that unless, wait, is there blocking? No blocking, but storm track is pressed south. Looks pretty good if it can hold. These are 6-11 day average maps on Euro Ensemble Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:49 PM, calculus1 said: And that is exactly what they see: It will be snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain (maybe). If you already know what they see, then why did you ask the question? lol was about to say the exact same thing. Isn't this what we have been wishing for? Real actual threats of winter weather. I'll happily take an inch or two of snow switching to sleet to ZR than to rain...will be fun at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:52 PM, mp184qcr said: This is so accurate it's the first time I'm seeing it this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 8:40 PM, mp184qcr said: I don't know what people see in the forecast for this weekend honestly. Gonna be Snow -> Sleet -> Freezing Rain -> Rain Lets hope there is a screw up in the initialization and that track can move about 2-300 miles south. It will be coming on the heels of a record cold air mass, should allow for more variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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