Upstate Tiger Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 KGSP increasing confidence for the weekend event. I think we stick with the hot hand and let Burger start the thread again. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECWMF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON MANY OF THE DETAILS OF THE WX PATTERN ACRS THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. THEY ARE TRENDING MORE UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE ACTIVE...WITH A SERIES OF WAVES PROMOTING PERIODS OF PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. POPS LOOK TO RAMP UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST...AND STRONG LLVL WAA OUT OF THE SW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE ATOP A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON ANOTHER WINTRY PRECIP EVENT TO START THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We still have a shot at a little snow in NC tomorrow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 1:57 PM, Brick Tamland said: We still have a shot at a little snow in NC tomorrow first. Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:03 PM, Isopycnic said: Flurries. RAH seems on board with a shot at some nice rates. WITH A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION... EXPECT TO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVIER RATES... AND WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS LATE WED INTO EARLY WED EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:16 PM, DopplerWx said: RAH seems on board with a shot at some nice rates. WITH A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION... EXPECT TO SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVIER RATES... AND WOULDN`T BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IN SOME SPOTS LATE WED INTO EARLY WED EVENING. We didn't get a flake at our house out of the last system so this would be nice even though it's only minimal amounts. However I'm much more excited for the potential we have in the next week or so but without a -NAO it's going to be a coin toss again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 4km NAM is very aggressive with snow for GSO to Roxboro to Henderson, nice 2-3" it looks like. This occurs hours 33-39. Flurries for northern Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:45 PM, packbacker said: 4km NAM is very aggressive with snow for GSO to Roxboro to Henderson, nice 2-3" it looks like. This occurs hours 33-39. Flurries for northern Wake. Looks like the 4km is suggesting convective snow bands. That could be pretty interesting. Thunder snow anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 So tired of clicking on the CPC site and seeing this each morning. Been Groundhog day since December. Fortunately, it's not the sole influence on our winter weather.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 About the arctic blast coming up, are the models taking in acct snow/sleet cover? Or is there a chance these crazy lows could be even crazier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:49 PM, Hvward said: Looks like the 4km is suggesting convective snow bands. That could be pretty interesting. Thunder snow anyone? GSP mentioned Feb 2013 as a possible analog..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:55 PM, mackerel_sky said: About the arctic blast coming up, are the models taking in acct snow/sleet cover? Or is there a chance these crazy lows could be even crazier? yeah they take it into account from what I understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 1:47 PM, Upstate Tiger said: AND STRONG LLVL WAA OUT OF THE SW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE ATOP A COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS. SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON ANOTHER WINTRY PRECIP EVENT TO START THE WEEKEND. Another possibility of the dreaded warm nose. I'd love to see some snow, some of the GFS runs have shown the finger of precip streaking east on Friday when it's still quite cold, but after last night, I can do without another ice storm. It's a real mess here NE of Atlanta. - Buck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 2:45 PM, packbacker said: 4km NAM is very aggressive with snow for GSO to Roxboro to Henderson, nice 2-3" it looks like. This occurs hours 33-39. Flurries for northern Wake. NAM Composite Radar for tomorrow. Hour 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I Don't want to sound too much like a weenie... but the 84hr NAM appears to be setting up very nice for a Saturday morning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:31 PM, burrel2 said: I Don't want to sound too much like a weenie... but the 84hr NAM appears to be setting up very nice for a Saturday morning event. Man, I'm pulling for the Canadian. A foot of snow followed by almost 3" of IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 06z gfs has northern wake county at -5 fri morn. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:33 PM, Queencitywx said: Man, I'm pulling for the Canadian. A foot of snow followed by almost 3" of IP. Yea, lots of potential here. The Ukmet/Euro are not breaking out any precip east into our area, but this looks like the type setup to me where you can get a band of overrunning that shoots out farther than what the models are projecting. If you look at the 700mb RH field you can get a sense of this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:33 PM, Queencitywx said: Man, I'm pulling for the Canadian. A foot of snow followed by almost 3" of IP. Me too...Sn/ip/zr from hr 108 to 207. That would be crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:31 PM, burrel2 said: I Don't want to sound too much like a weenie... but the 84hr NAM appears to be setting up very nice for a Saturday morning event. I don't know. Looks like it would want to cut straight up(cutter). The high is moving out and that will direct it north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:39 PM, rduwx said: Me too...Sn/ip/zr from hr 108 to 207. That would be crazy! Lol nearly 100 hours of frozen precip. Riiiiight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:41 PM, Cold Rain said: Lol nearly 100 hours of frozen precip. Riiiiight. What? It could happen...Really it could... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 new gfs still shows the snow potential for tomorrow. gonna come down to who gets under those convective bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 3:40 PM, FallsLake said: I don't know. Looks like it would want to cut straight up(cutter). The high is moving out and that will direct it north. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150217+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model In all likelihood it is going to cut north of us. I'm more concerned with getting in on the overrunning precip out ahead of the low before this happens. This appears to be a stretch for eastern sections of NC, but western NC, North GA, etc are very much in the game for the overrunning precip on friday night/saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 gfs looks to be a nice hit for north ga at hr 84, western nc at hr 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looks like the 12z hi-res nam gives Greensboro over 2 inches tomorrow! Most models have a little something. Maybe a 1/2 would be a reasonable hope. More than likely flurries or a dusting in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 GA centric : 12Z GFS is a front end thump of snow to freezing rain. This would be a big deal Friday night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 12z GFS is interesting. Tries to keep a circle of sub freezing temps in CAD areas of NC this weekend with the storm. I think it is severely underplaying the cold air left over in the region. I would suspect we have a repeat from last night on Saturday maybe with more snow associated at the front end and a little less moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Burger had the hot hand. Start a thread for tomorrow and one for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 4:15 PM, Brick Tamland said: Burger had the hot hand. Start a thread for tomorrow and one for this weekend. Not starting one for this weekend yet...I started one for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I guess it is better to give it one more day for the weekend. That would be inside 3 days. Man, exciting times ahead with all these chances popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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