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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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  On 2/12/2015 at 10:26 PM, farleydawg79 said:

Agreed....much too warm based on sfc temps.  May have snow to start, change over to IP/ZR, then rain, then back to snow as the model is showing...looking forward to the ensembles.

 

ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at.  Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA

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  On 2/12/2015 at 10:34 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at.  Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA

How has the new GFS been at day 4-5 for winter events. We haven't had anything close to track so have no clue what its bias are.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 10:34 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

ATL is 30/8 at 12Z at 90 hours when precip moves in from the west..it would take awhile to saturate based on that sounding I'm looking at.  Yeah, by 102 the GFS wants to warm the surface but I doubt it would actually happen based on everything I'm seeing, it looks mostly PL for ATL initially then FZRA

Agreed!  I actually think we are in the "funky" time period for the GFS...Look for some crazy A** solutions for the next few days.  I actually think we could see that back end vort pop something further south since the first piece should suppress the 2nd.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 11:29 PM, Wow said:

While I'm waiting on the 18z panels to come out, here was the best weenie snow map from the 12z GEFS individual panels. :D

 

For the 12 members on ewall (no idea why they only have 12 of the 21)...a couple miss to the south, a few are amped and warmer, and several are good hits

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  On 2/12/2015 at 11:24 PM, griteater said:

Come on James, tell me you are kidding right?  Suppression concerns, this winter?  :)

 

The absolute last thing we should be worried about is a miss SE.  Let's not forget the Euro/EPS tracks this right up our fannies.  Same for the GEM/ENS.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 11:43 PM, packbacker said:

The absolute last thing we should be worried about is a miss SE. Let's not forget the Euro/EPS tracks this right up our fannies. Same for the GEM/ENS.

Not gonna happen...not with that air mass, unless the low bombs out over AL. Not worried about suppression. At. All.

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this is from a well respected poster in the Northeast from another board. Don't like what he has to say at all.

 

A couple things. 1.If the storm takes an 18z GFS track, it will NOT give big snows to GA/NC and Southeast Virginia. Not in a progressive pattern, and we all have seen cold snaps be unimpressive compared to modeled. Eastern and Northern New England into Nova Scotia would do good though. 2.This could still trend back to NW solutions easily. 3. The NW QPF shield would be way better with HP. Could be another synoptic/localized event. The trend is clear right now though.    

 

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  On 2/12/2015 at 11:48 PM, Chattownsnow said:

this is from a well respected poster in the Northeast from another board. Don't like what he has to say at all.

 

A couple things. 1.If the storm takes an 18z GFS track, it will NOT give big snows to GA/NC and Southeast Virginia. Not in a progressive pattern, and we all have seen cold snaps be unimpressive compared to modeled. Eastern and Northern New England into Nova Scotia would do good though. 2.This could still trend back to NW solutions easily. 3. The NW QPF shield would be way better with HP. Could be another synoptic/localized event. The trend is clear right now though.    

 

lol sounds like a wishcast to me, 18z track with that hp gives us all wintry wx every day of the week and twice on sunday.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 11:50 PM, kvegas-wx said:

But sleet on the bottom is best! Not seeing that for NNC though. Gonna have to come back way north to bring ice into the disco around here.

I think there's plenty of time for the NW trend. We WILL see that before this is all said and done. But, I hope we see see mostly snow. Gonna take some work to get that around here though.

  On 2/12/2015 at 11:49 PM, Stovepipe said:

I need Tony to weigh in on this matter. :guitar:

How's it been going man? You had any snow yet over there?

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