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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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  On 2/12/2015 at 4:15 AM, NCSNOW said:

Here comes the ice

 

Looks like we probably start out with some accumulating snow, then go over to some ice, then rain, per the 00z GFS.

 

At this point, I'd take it...  I hate seeing rain fall on snow, but we can't be picky this winter.

 

It seems a bit peculiar that the GFS drives the LP right into the wedge.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 4:17 AM, superjames1992 said:

Looks like we probably start out with some accumulating snow, then go over to some ice, then rain, per the 00z GFS.

 

At this point, I'd take it...  I hate seeing rain fall on snow, but we can't be picky this winter.

 

I think taking a blend of all the models from today so far, for those west of 77 in NC its snow to sleet/fzra.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 4:18 AM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I think taking a blend of all the models from today so far, for those west of 77 in NC its snow to sleet/fzra.

 

It looks like every model has us in the NW Piedmont and foothills going over to rain at some point (sans the Ukie).  I just hope for some front-end winnage.  Then again, I guess we can hug the UKMET and it's uber-cold solution at the surface.

 

All four major models have significant storms at the moment (though the GFS' event being significant might be a stretch, but it's a good .2" of frozen precip at least).

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  On 2/12/2015 at 4:21 AM, NCSNOW said:

Get the worst runs from the gfs and it's still warning criteria. No way switch to rain in th as t scenerio, dps are below 0 when moisture and wetbulb in begins. Monumental mountain to climb to get above freezing. But we can discuss that in a few day if neccesary provided the gfs is correct, which it aint.

 

I agree with all of this.

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  On 2/12/2015 at 4:56 AM, CaryWx said:

More sleet your way james?

 

The Model Center's P-type algorithm spits out 1-2" of snow, 0.25-0.5" of sleet, and 0.5-0.75" of ZR. :yikes: We're still barely holding onto 31ish degree temps at hr 144 (as far as I have), so it will probably go over to rain afterwards.

 

EDIT: Actually, the wedge goes into beast-mode and we mostly hold onto sub-freezing temps through hr 150, with 0.75-1" of ZR falling.  Portions of NW SC are the bullseye with ~1.25" of ZR.  I-85 is a warzone.  Big ZR storm basically from Chapel Hill to CLT N/W into NW SC.  The foothills look to have more sleet.

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Well damn, my #s will be off. More ZR on the way on further frames. I'm sure someone will get that posted up for you guys.

 

The big 1.25 ZR # has shifted to the upstate though.  KCAE with a glaze mainly.

Upstate sees no snow per say, but sleet & ZR.

 

NE GA, W NC/Central, Upstate SC bullseye for the ice storm part.

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