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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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  On 2/1/2015 at 3:25 PM, Shawn said:

When you come around and post, it's a legitimate threat I've learned over the years. Right now, its a whole Hell of a lot of sleet down your way, but that can change for the better or worse.

I'm sure we'll see many different scenarios painted between now and game time so to speak. In a nutshell, this will be my test of how the new GFS performs WRT this one and how it ultimately plays out. The Euro has been really waffling this year and probably has done the worst I've ever seen but that should be expected in the Racer X flow scheme this winter.

Fortunately, the current GFS depiction on 6z isn't a ZR setup and the upper trough associated with this has a decent cold core region which would make sense with the snow and large sleet area. This will be fun to watch.

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  On 2/1/2015 at 3:38 PM, Stormsfury said:

I'm sure we'll see many different scenarios painted between now and game time so to speak. In a nutshell, this will be my test of how the new GFS performs WRT this one and how it ultimately plays out. The Euro has been really waffling this year and probably has done the worst I've ever seen but that should be expected in the Racer X flow scheme this winter.

Fortunately, the current GFS depiction on 6z isn't a ZR setup and the upper trough associated with this has a decent cold core region which would make sense with the snow and large sleet area. This will be fun to watch.

Thats a GREAT post, Mike....The euro has not done the greatest this year for a very simple and basic flaw it has.......its not as good *at times* with this VERY FAST flow, and northern stream dominated winter.  GFS *and sometimes the crazy uncle (CMC)* do the BEST with fast and progressive flows.  I mentioned earlier that I think the GFS could be the leader on this one because of it. PLUS, since this is  northern stream/flow vs a southern branch/stream piece, it could be close to right since they have been OVER performing this year.  Unlike the crappy southern stream vorts. 

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:02 PM, Shawn said:

12z GFS will not be close to the 06z solution.

 

LOL, yeah it's essentially a cold front, so much for the north trend.  Changes were evident fairly early on too, hour 72 or so it's not like we are using the it's still 5 days away excuse.

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:04 PM, packbacker said:

LOL, yeah it's essentially a cold front, so much for the north trend. Changes were evident fairly early on too, hour 72 or so it's not like we are using the it's still 5 days away excuse.

This is normal, GFS loses storms at 5 days out, if the Euro still has it,ride it
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I don't know if I buy what the southern wave is doing on the GFS. It kind of stretches it out then spins off a piece of energy off of it and then just kind of dissipates. Will have to see other models come on board with that before I believe it. Then to add insult to injury that backside energy just doesn't have much juice with it. 

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:17 PM, Smoked said:

Still got a shot. 12z Nam looked more promising and we always knew we were threading the needle. Slight changes in speed & amplitude of the mid level energy will mean everything.

 

Do you think the NAM hate is blown out of proportion?  Has it been doing okay in your eyes for the majority of this season down here?

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:12 PM, Shawn said:

Figured there were going to be large changes. Wait it out until day 2. Are we ready for a thread for this system yet or too far out? Not sure if the mods are going by 5 days or 3 now.

No. Not yet. I wouldn't bother starting one until about 48 hours out.

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:18 PM, Shawn said:

Do you think the NAM hate is blown out of proportion? Has it been doing okay in your eyes for the majority of this season down here?

I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours.

I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy.

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:24 PM, Stormsfury said:

I think the NS s/w in question is not on the data network right now.

Nope....not yet....it's still hangin out in the gulf of alaska   ;)

 

  On 2/1/2015 at 4:24 PM, Smoked said:

I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours.

I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy.

Agree.....until then.....all solutions will be on the table   :D

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  On 2/1/2015 at 4:24 PM, Smoked said:

I think it is blown out of proportion. I think the Nam has a decent track record out to about 60 hours.

I believe the short and medium range models will be important in determining how the Rockies impact the structure and movement of the northern stream energy.

it's way up north and you are correct. Sit tight the big boys are fixing to run, ukie euro and jma, along with crazy uncle

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