OBS/Disco: A bit of snow Thursday night/Friday morning (1/29-30/2015)

[KamuSnow]

I did the golf course thing and probably could have killed myself. A bunch of us would run and start and try to take out "the other guy" as we approached mid way down. Super nuts...how I never broke a bone is beyond me. Also did crazy shiet on a BMX bike in the snow...

 

Funny to think of some of the stuff we did and it's funny cuz we survived it, lol.

Speaking of bikes, when I was 7 or 8 we got bikes for Christmas, and my youngest brother who was 4 or 5 got a tricycle. It started snowing early Christmas morning, and we were outside riding our bikes in the snow. The youngest wasn't having much luck on the tricycle, so we nailed a bunch of nails into the front wheel all the way around for better traction. Kind of a rough ride, but I guess we were ahead of our time, lol.

[The Iceman]

i think this one mostly breaks apart before getting here, coating at most for much of the area. maybe 1-2" for NW areas.

[KamuSnow]

i think this one mostly breaks apart before getting here, coating at most for much of the area. maybe 1-2" for NW areas.

 

Expectations here are pretty low - Good opportunity for an upsize surprise ( ).

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not expecting much tonight anyway....maybe up to an inch, but the nam hires is a train wreck with just a flurry or a passing snow shower.

On to Sunday night/Monday...

[Harbourton]

12Z GFS is still advertising 1-2 inches

[RedSky]

GFS looks good 1-2" some base builder

[TheManWithNoFace]

Radar trends appear to confirm the GFS/RGEM QPF placement better than that of the NAM, to my eye. I would favor the wetter solutions at this point. RH is decent (~50%) across the Philly area into NJ. 

 

Also- pretty neat- temps have risen 20 degrees in 3 hours at some southern NJ stations.

[RedSky]

Hurricane is discounting today's event for the majority of us, .3" Allentown going dry interesting. With our cold ground 1-2" will create travel problems.

[TheManWithNoFace]

It's a funky deal, isn't it? We're on the southern side of the surface low, vortmax passes overhead west to east, and there is anafrontal nature to the cold front that crosses NJ with it. Schwartz is probably sniffing past the models and he'll probably be right.

[RedSky]

It's a funky deal, isn't it? We're on the southern side of the surface low, vortmax passes overhead west to east, and there is anafrontal nature to the cold front that crosses NJ with it. Schwartz is probably sniffing past the models and he'll probably be right.

Yes it is. Yet I can't remember the last time the GFS was too wet for anything.

[TheManWithNoFace]

Found something curious. Dunno if this link will work but take a look at how the GFS is initializing the 250/300mb RH fields against the NAM. Soundings and the RAP support the NAM. It's a big diffference. Granted we are arguing about a tenth of an inch liquid here, but the GFS seems to recognize a much deeper layer of moist air than the rest do.

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=12&fhour=03&parameter=RH&level=250&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

[famartin]

NAM QPF:

ABE 0.16

RDG 0.14

TTN 0.11

PHL 0.06

ILG 0.04

ACY 0.06

 

GFS QPF:

ABE 0.22

RDG 0.20

TTN 0.13

PHL 0.16

ILG 0.16

ACY 0.08

 

Southern areas need to watch for potential of mixing.

[RedSky]

12z RGEM supports 1" north of Philly. Mini model battles for the evening rush should be fun.

[The Iceman]

I know you can sometimes get high ratio's with clippers but with the low going north of us, will that limit our ratio's to 10:1?

[KamuSnow]

Must be a lot of virga with this one, some radars show a large area of precipitation over the western 2/3 of PA, others show practically nada over the same area. Webcams don't show much, but there are some reports of precipitation in western PA.

[RedSky]

28F and overcast

[The Iceman]

31 and overcast. There's definitely going to be a lot of virga, dew points are in the low teens across the area.

[famartin]

I know you can sometimes get high ratio's with clippers but with the low going north of us, will that limit our ratio's to 10:1?

I think so, the atmosphere is not very cold.

[penndotguy]

Cloudy looks more like snow now than it did Monday

temp 30

dp  7 thats some dry air

hum. 38%

[famartin]

Easy forecast for me, coating to 2" for Trenton

 

Now that I've said that, they'll either get nothing, or 3"

[KamuSnow]

Easy forecast for me, coating to 2" for Trenton

 

Now that I've said that, they'll either get nothing, or 3"

 

Easy peasy, lol.

 

http://www.statecollege.com/allen-street-cam/

 

Btw, for the first time today there are reflections on the nexrad radars on the COD Met. site - on the last couple of frames. Anyone else experience this today?

[famartin]

Easy peasy, lol.

 

http://www.statecollege.com/allen-street-cam/

 

Btw, for the first time today there are reflections on the nexrad radars on the COD Met. site - on the last couple of frames. Anyone else experience this today?

Yeah, same issue for me.  Looks like they were not receiving data for ~5 hours.

[KamuSnow]

Yeah, same issue for me.  Looks like they were not receiving data for ~5 hours.

 

lol, I thought the air must be really dry out there.

[The Iceman]

Easy forecast for me, coating to 2" for Trenton

 

Now that I've said that, they'll either get nothing, or 3"

I was going to say way to jinx it

[TheManWithNoFace]

18z NAM keeps southern NJ dry, as well as VA and NC. Only problem is that there is currently a line of storms in MD, VA, NC 3 hours after hr0. Miserable machine.

[Fields27]

Cloudy looks more like snow now than it did Monday

temp 30

dp  7 thats some dry air

hum. 38%

 

Agreed Sir. And it won't take very much to eclipse Monday's total for us tonight either lol. Currently 28f , 12dp, 50% humidity, virga overhead. 

[Harbourton]

Cloudy looks more like snow now than it did Monday

temp 30

dp  7 thats some dry air

hum. 38%

It will eat up any moisture like the old Pac Man

[White_Mtn_Wx]

Heavy snow in West Caln

[RevWarReenactor]

Don't expect much Philly.

 

Heavy Band over me. I think I saw a couple of flurries pass by.

 

Virga should be Ending soon.

[penndotguy]

Steady light snow

temp 30

dp 10