Heisy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 GFS close to blowing up an epic Miller B @ 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I don't post much on the New England subforum, but I just can't help thinking that New England is in a remarkable pattern. It even makes me think of the intro to "Northeast Snowstorms," Kocin and Uccellini, which mentions the Great Snow of 1717, when 3-4 ft of snow covered southern New England in just 9 days and was remembered for generations. The Blizzard of January 26-27 2015 had some similarity to Feb 22-28 1969, at least in the snow distribution. That was one of the few maps where Kocin and Uccellini had to use a yellow color for 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I don't post much on the New England subforum, but I just can't help thinking that New England is in a remarkable pattern. It even makes me think of the intro to "Northeast Snowstorms," Kocin and Uccellini, which mentions the Great Snow of 1717, when 3-4 ft of snow covered southern New England in just 9 days and was remembered for generations. The Blizzard of January 26-27 2015 had some similarity to Feb 22-28 1969, at least in the snow distribution. That was one of the few maps where Kocin and Uccellini had to use a yellow color for 40". Most certainly does, pretty epic up here and looks to continue. The stories and accounts of 1717 were real hard to believe by some here in this forum but they were real and the same disbelievers are getting a taste of that kind of stretch. If this Friday storm blows up with brutal cold and blizzard winds on the coast some areas in NE Ma will have 4 feet otg. We have had some pretty amazing storms since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not entirely sure what all the indicies are currently other than a +PNA and -EPO, but whatever is in place to have what has been and is happening and what looks to continue .. We need to study this and see just how this all came about and if there are any analogs? Or are we just in uncharted waters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hey, just wanted to drop in from the lakes sub forum and say congrats on your unreal winter. I just wanted to ask: in terms of snow, could this winter rank up with the famed "winter of the big snows" in 1717? I've read about that event and this sounds similar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Hey, just wanted to drop in from the lakes sub forum and say congrats on your unreal winter. I just wanted to ask: in terms of snow, could this winter rank up with the famed "winter of the big snows" in 1717? I've read about that event and this sounds similar! I think if we got 3-4 feet on top of this it might, I seem to remember reading they had 5 feet on the ground then got a 3 foot blizzard on top of that. Single family homes were buried so I assume they had some good winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think if we got 3-4 feet on top of this it might, I seem to remember reading they had 5 feet on the ground then got a 3 foot blizzard on top of that. Single family homes were buried so I assume they had some good winds. LOL..you wonder how accurate those stories are though. I mean if it was that deep ..it was over the heads of most people since everyone back then was like 4'6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 LOL..you wonder how accurate those stories are though. I mean if it was that deep ..it was over the heads of most people since everyone back then was like 4'6" Except Thomas Jefferson. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hey, just wanted to drop in from the lakes sub forum and say congrats on your unreal winter. I just wanted to ask: in terms of snow, could this winter rank up with the famed "winter of the big snows" in 1717? I've read about that event and this sounds similar! Seems similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The daily mean temp has exceeded 32F only four times this year at BDL. Last time was January 24th. Nine days at this point last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 BOS is -10.2 for the first 9 days of February. The next 9 appear equally cold. These departures are flying under the radar with all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 BOS is -10.2 for the first 9 days of February. The next 9 appear equally cold. These departures are flying under the radar with all the snow. posted that, all time record average in ORH is 19.1 set in the 1800's now that would be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 LOL..you wonder how accurate those stories are though. I mean if it was that deep ..it was over the heads of most people since everyone back then was like 4'6" don't know where you got that but here are the documented accounts http://books.google.com/books?id=1w-CLumC_3IC&printsec=titlepage#v=onepage&q&f=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well weenies shouldn't worry about the next two if the models are right. Hits keep coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well weenies shouldn't worry about the next two if the models are right. Hits keep coming. Yeah, just posted this in the sunday thread but the rhythm actually looks a little better AFTER Sunday from what I'm seeing on the last couple GFS runs. That's not to say Sunday is totally out, but if it can't get to us, there're chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 posted that, all time record average in ORH is 19.1 set in the 1800's now that would be epic Feb 1934 was 14.4 average at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah, just posted this in the sunday thread but the rhythm actually looks a little better AFTER Sunday from what I'm seeing on the last couple GFS runs. That's not to say Sunday is totally out, but if it can't get to us, there're chances. I think people sometimes get a little greedy. We won't win them all, but the overall pattern is not changing for the next two weeks or so. There are signs the PNA ridging retros a bit. This may means colder air into the central US and perhaps trough axis shifted west a bit from the East. It means more action, but it's also a pattern that introduces a SWFE look too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think people sometimes get a little greedy. We won't win them all, but the overall pattern is not changing for the next two weeks or so. There are signs the PNA ridging retros a bit. This may means colder air into the central US and perhaps trough axis shifted west a bit from the East. It means more action, but it's also a pattern that introduces a SWFE look too. Yeah we elevate the risk of cutters again. The trough axis being almost over us or barely west has meant cutters have been unlikely...even without the ATL blocking. The pattern a couple weeks from now might be a bit more like last February...still active but some closer tracks could happen and possibly a cutter. Though last Feb we avoided cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah we elevate the risk of cutters again. The trough axis being almost over us or barely west has meant cutters have been unlikely...even without the ATL blocking. The pattern a couple weeks from now might be a bit more like last February...still active but some closer tracks could happen and possibly a cutter. Though last Feb we avoided cutters. Yeah higher risk/reward. It's still a cold look..in fact that's how the Plains and GL region got so frigid. This is if it all goes like this, but fwiw..the weeklies held firm too. Looks similar to EC ensembles. Pretty well locked in for more cold and action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well weenies shouldn't worry about the next two if the models are right. Hits keep coming. Who is worried? They're both going to drop at least several inches on everyone..So I really hope folks aren't upset they aren't going to be big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Who is worried? They're both going to drop at least several inches on everyone..So I really hope folks aren't upset they aren't going to be big hits Anybody living in this region worried about future systems should be shot. You have weenies jumping left and right in the other forums and people here are gonna be worried after getting feet of snow in a few weeks. Really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Anybody living in this region worried about future systems should be shot. You have weenies jumping left and right in the other forums and people here are gonna be worried after getting feet of snow in a few weeks. Really! I agree..It's pretty sad if folks are getting upset, pissed off or worried they're "only" getting 2-4 or 3-6 Thursday and again Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I agree..It's pretty sad if folks are getting upset, pissed off or worried they're "only" getting 2-4 or 3-6 Thursday and again Sunday 3-6 a month ago would have been considered a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Say more old man. I thnk we rock on right through March but the 12+ systems will be less plentiful after 2/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I thnk we rock on right through March but the 12+ systems will be less plentiful after 2/18. Well, I would think so Like i said to Steve, we probably aren't going to see 150" Get one more of them and beating '96 is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I posted that saying to myself "this will set the alarm off on Steve's desk" ...and sure enough. Why do you have to twist anything and everything that can be remotely perceived as not pro snow and cold? I mean, it's not as though I implied that winter is over, or has been a dissapointment.Since we are never going to get 200" of snow in a season, we were due for some of this potential to go unrealized. Regardless of what time of year it is, but since you brought it up, we just passed the peak of sne snowfall climo......first week of Feb. BTW, Happy Birthday, king weenie. Thanks, I am not alone it appears in not understanding what exactly you mean about constraints of climo. South of Pike peak snow is Feb 6 to Feb 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am at 68 probably end up like 11 mid 80s if constraints of climo kick in. This pattern I bet mid 90 s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am at 68 probably end up like 11 mid 80s if constraints of climo kick in. This pattern I bet mid 90 s It's pretty crazy that less than 3 weeks ago I was telling my girlfriend we weren't going to be winning the GYX snow pool this year (with guesses of 92 and 98 inches). Now I'm going to end up being right, but that will be because we blow by both numbers before Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't know Ray. Even if we "slow down" I don't see anything to change our run. Next week could really be interesting. Perhaps you mean our run of 18+ events every 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Also "The streak" implies we haven't missed threats yet...we did. The eastern MA winter storm warning 3 days after the blizzard was a coating to 2 inches...bust. Easy to forget those busts though when you get 15"+ 3-4 days later. We also missed a chance last Thursday...got a nice little fronto band, but don't forget that it looked like a warning event at one time too. But the best recipe for amnesia is getting another 15-25" 3 days later once again. I do agree with Ray's general thinking that you eventually run into resistance...it's hard to break 100 inches and even harder to get 125"+...in some places in this forum it has never happened. But on the other hand, there is a reason we are having such a ridiculous number of threats...because the pattern is awesome right now. That awesome pattern doesn't look to be changing much, so there is no real reason to expect anything drastically different going into a threat on model guidance. There is variance of course, and sometimes you miss them like we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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