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February pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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All the ensembles guidance is supporting a rebuild of the EPO ridge after a brief breakdown next week...however, in our area, we are shielded from the warmth of the central CONUS as a PV lobe holds strong initially in Quebec and then we also pop a western ridge to funnel in additional cold before the PAC reloads.

 

 

It really doesn't look like we are getting out of the cold pattern anytime soon. The pattern should remain active as well.

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All the ensembles guidance is supporting a rebuild of the EPO ridge after a brief breakdown next week...however, in our area, we are shielded from the warmth of the central CONUS as a PV lobe holds strong initially in Quebec and then we also pop a western ridge to funnel in additional cold before the PAC reloads.

 

 

It really doesn't look like we are getting out of the cold pattern anytime soon. The pattern should remain active as well.

for the ages Will, for the ages

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All the ensembles guidance is supporting a rebuild of the EPO ridge after a brief breakdown next week...however, in our area, we are shielded from the warmth of the central CONUS as a PV lobe holds strong initially in Quebec and then we also pop a western ridge to funnel in additional cold before the PAC reloads.

 

 

It really doesn't look like we are getting out of the cold pattern anytime soon. The pattern should remain active as well.

Sounds awesome....sounds like a chance to get some while it's going, when it's coming and while its here!  Helluva pattern, in which I expect continuing pulses of high precip events.  Dendrite MPM and I would appreciate an opportunity to jp at some point.

 

Any sign of an NAO?

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This is what will eventually compensate for lagging behind 2011 as far as WE in the snowpack.

2011 Just died at this point....got much milder, and I only had one additional event of 6"+..6.5"

 near the end of Feb.

 

 

We actually had a pretty cold month in Feb 2011...not super cold, but below average...however, we had that big 3 day torch in the middle and mixed in a couple moderate rain/taint events too that month...so the net snowpack just kept dwindling. The end of the month made a bit of a recovery but we then had the monster 2-3 inch rainstorm a week into March to stick the daggar in winter's brief comeback attempt...that was the event where powderfreak was posting to himself about getting 25" of snow while anyone east of Montpelier was raining.

 

But obviously a totally different setup this month...pretty classic El Nino pacific.

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We actually had a pretty cold month in Feb 2011...not super cold, but below average...however, we had that big 3 day torch in the middle and mixed in a couple moderate rain/taint events too that month...so the net snowpack just kept dwindling. The end of the month made a bit of a recovery but we then had the monster 2-3 inch rainstorm a week into March to stick the daggar in winter's brief comeback attempt...that was the event where powderfreak was posting to himself about getting 25" of snow while anyone east of Montpelier was raining.

 

But obviously a totally different setup this month...pretty classic El Nino pacific.

We also had a period in which were about to go super epic in the first half of Feb, but then it turned and we got a cutter and then not one more big storm.  Although Jan was so epic.

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This is what will eventually compensate for lagging behind 2011 as far as WE in the snowpack.

2011 Just died at this point....got much milder, and I only had one additional event of 6"+..6.5"

near the end of Feb.

This winter reminds me of that winter up here...it was just steady consistent cold and snow all winter. From mid-Novie onward it's just been snow on the ground and regular refreshes between larger storms. Then a period in mid-winter where SNE gets clobbered for a few weeks, while we just continue to get these 4-8" on the outskirts of the SNE blizzards. Later in the season it then lifts north again and we get clobbered late in Feb and March. We capped off 2011 with a 27" on 3" of QPF storm in March to get to 40"+ snow depth...I could see something similar happening.

This winter has been very stormy all winter (even if it was paste here and rain SE) and it doesn't show signs of stopping. That's kinda how 2010-2011 rolled at least up here.

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This winter reminds me of that winter up here...it was just steady consistent cold and snow all winter. From mid-Novie onward it's just been snow on the ground and regular refreshes between larger storms. Then a period in mid-winter where SNE gets clobbered for a few weeks, while we just continue to get these 4-8" on the outskirts of the SNE blizzards. Later in the season it then lifts north again and we get clobbered late in Feb and March. We capped off 2011 with a 27" on 3" of QPF storm in March to get to 40"+ snow depth...I could see something similar happening.

This winter has been very stormy all winter (even if it was paste here and rain SE) and it doesn't show signs of stopping. That's kinda how 2010-2011 rolled at least up here.

Ecept this year it doesn't just lift north and out..but is stays down here thru March

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We actually had a pretty cold month in Feb 2011...not super cold, but below average...The end of the month made a bit of a recovery but we then had the monster 2-3 inch rainstorm a week into March to stick the daggar in winter's brief comeback attempt...that was the event where powderfreak was posting to himself about getting 25" of snow while anyone east of Montpelier was raining.

Feb 2011 was my last Thundersnow...we had some 7-10" wet paste event that was just ripping .2" QPF per hour wet snow with thunder and lightning, though I forget the date.

And yeah that March event snuck up on us that year...just kept tickling SE to get us in the heavy snow. 20-30" up here with 27" in my yard. BTV's storm summary says it was in the 50s at ORH while it was 2-3"/hr up here to illustrate how right that thermal boundary was.

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The teleconnectors from the GEFS -derived are flagging deep blue winter. Luckily ... this will likely go far toward significantly amending seasonal snowfall totals upward for the snow-starved SNE region...

 

The PNA arcs boldly to > +1SD at one agency, and over 2.5 at the other.  While that is happening, the EPO domain struggles to meet with the longer term negative correlation by rising, only to crash negative at the same time the PNA stays positive.

 

That latter tandem phase state is the less likely concurrency.  It would likely manifest in the dailies as a cross polar flow at some point beyond D7 - 15.  There's that, but the PNAP (north American longer term resting state pattern) remains rather positive, finally having the +PNA ridge not along 130 W, but pushed inland over western north America ...pulsing between 110 and 120W.   

 

The +PNA appears to be the resting phase state for the next 40 days, ...if most probably anchored by the AA Pacific being in "constructive" interference with ENSO. While that is the case ... at any time, Pac or Alaskan sector ejected S/W can short-lead time ignite interesting events in the E.  These intermediary scaled wave features, ...sneak, for lack of better word, inside the signals of the bigger mass-field changes.   The last storm was just such an event... It took almost to 48 hour prior, and the advent of denser sounding intake over B.C. Canada before it became clear that a major winter storm would take place from MW-GL-NE regions.   And, ...is why this little critter tomorrow needed to be watched..

 

Anyway, the bigger signal I was discussing near the beginning of the thread was the Sun-Wed period... It's not surprising that there is ...somewhat more interest coming in that time frame but the GEFs... Don't know if it will come to fruition, but that period is still interesting... As is the following weekend... 

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That map was from 12z Jan 27th through Feb 4th...12z Jan 27th was already more than halfway through the blizzard, so it's not counting all the blizzard snow.

 

It's a poor starting point. Better would have been 12z on the 26th as the starting point.

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Even Debbie's Up

 

Ryan Hanrahan ‏@ryanhanrahan  7m

This is just an epic winter pattern. Deep cold and snow as far as the eye can see. People are going to get really crabby (not me!)

 

While some people (like you) call bad patterns great patterns. When the potential is real the "debbies" get stoked.

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