CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I give the Euro credit for being the first to catch onto the large scale blizzard that ended up happening. But it did fail pretty hard on the placement of max qpf to the west in the very short term. It had similar issues in the Feb 2013 blizzard, though it wasnt as adamant in how west it pushed things within 24 hrs if i recall correctly. The nam was just as atrocious in the short term as it was in the feb 2013 storm. I hate that thing Thoughts on weeklies? It's almost like the same overall theme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What has changed in the pattern to take us from cold and dry to cold and snowy? I mean there really haven't been any large scale changes. Maybe PNA spikes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What has changed in the pattern to take us from cold and dry to cold and snowy? I mean there really haven't been any large scale changes. Maybe PNA spikes? Don't you remember us saying 3 weeks ago that this probably would not be dry? It's not terribly surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Full snow moon goon week incoming, heavy snow brutal cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the Euro weeklies are right we are going to see lots of men never mind boys crying for their Mommas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What has changed in the pattern to take us from cold and dry to cold and snowy? I mean there really haven't been any large scale changes. Maybe PNA spikes? Perhaps having the stratosphere vortex displaced over in siberia of late has supported a wavier jet stream on this side of the globe alongside the favorable pacific setup...back earlier in the month through that first big cold wave, the stratosphere was split with a lobe in canada, which I think inhibited the waviness/storminess. Thats one hypothesis anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thoughts on weeklies? It's almost like the same overall theme. Yeah i mean I cant see what would break this pattern we have entered that is well supported by the strong +PDO regime..It looks PNA dominated and the occasional pac jet extentions modulating the EPO (which otherwise looks negative by default going forward)...The nao is dissapointing but we've proven recently and last year that it is not necessary, especially for you guys...I have no problem with the recent runs of the weeklies which have locked in this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah i mean I cant see what would break this pattern we have entered that is well supported by the strong +PDO regime..It looks PNA dominated and the occasional pac jet extentions modulating the EPO (which otherwise looks negative by default going forward)...The nao is dissapointing but we've proven recently and last year that it is not necessary, especially for you guys...I have no problem with the recent runs of the weeklies which have locked in this lookbrutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 well it was more than Mass centric, you forgot about 40 mile East Of NYC in LI http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/hydrometDisplay.php?event=stormTotalv3_48&element=snow¢eron=BOX OT...but that map is off back this way. I don't think I saw a single report of 20"+ west of the CT River(maybe Old Saybrook right on the river)...but it shows 20-25" shading back almost to HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT...but that map is off back this way. I don't think I saw a single report of 20"+ west of the CT River(maybe Old Saybrook right on the river)...but it shows 20-25" shading back almost to HVN.Yeah, it had some inaccuracies. No way I got 8". More like 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro is a meso. And now far west is NYC to BOS? Better yet, how far is NYC to the big totals. On LI. Not far is the answer. You what I meant by meso...RGEM, RPM etc. I agree RE Long island....brain cramp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 This may be under-the-radar but I noticed actually the NAVGEM was the first to hone in on the blizzard with consistency, run to run... out pacing the other guidance by almost a full day's worth of runs before they started converge on a similar solution. Euro was next to do so...then the GFS and others nodded. Sometimes the sun shines on a dog's arse... Since no one really uses the model ...save for mid afternoon boredom and nothing else to click... it's probable that no one really noticed that. Even I dismissed it... I saw the model rotating the trough from positive to neutral ...negative across 18 hours and then stem-winding a coastal low and thought -- really. Sure enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How does the end of week storm look? Is it like a clipper or is it squashed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 whats cool is I have been alive for 14/15 of these Jerry all 15 Once again, here is the list of storms total over 20 inches here at Blue Hill Observatory's history dating back to 1885, with the new storm update: 1) 38.7 on 24-28 Feb, 1969 2) 30.8 on 26-28 Jan, 2015 3) 30.3 on 3-5 Mar, 1960 4) 30.1 on 6-7 Feb, 1978 5) 30.0 on 31 Mar - 1 Apr, 1997 6) 29.8 on 6-8 Mar, 2013 7) 26.6 on 8-9 Feb, 2013 8) 24.7 on 17-18 Feb, 2003 9) 24.3 on 5-7 Dec, 2003 10) 23.0 on 5-7 Mar, 2001 11) 22.2 on 16-17 Feb, 1958 12) 21.0 on 9-10 Feb, 1969 13) 20.5 on 22-23 Jan, 2005 14) 20.3 on 12 Dec, 1960 15) 20.0 on 31 Jan - 1 Feb, 1898 I only was around for 12 of the 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I only was around for 12 of the 15. It's interesting that 7 out of those 15 occurred since 2000, whereas (and probably more important..) the total spread is over a century's worth of years. Seems odd to have so much noise packed in to the last 15 years. It may be that you just get episodes like this; between 55 and 70 there was a packing of events, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No one answered so I'll ask a different way. How are we looking for the end of week snow? Light- mod clipper snow, or still chance of a deeper solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 No one answered so I'll ask a different way. How are we looking for the end of week snow? Light- mod clipper snow, or still chance of a deeper solution? The base-line pattern remains active post Monday's ordeal. Smaller disturbances that fit inside of less than larger mass-field signals can take place from time to time, but I mentioned at the thread start that there was a more interesting signal nearing the end of the first week of Feb, more specifically ... I think that is still on the table as the next more viable potential... The 12z Euro had an echo of the potential out in la-la land, though it's absurd to think it would verify per se. It is in fact rare to get a 30" storm, that is encased inside a massive area of 15 to 20" like that, then put up a warning for another 9-14" just four days later. I think folks should remember that if they are turning into the weather for entertainment. May have to wait a bit longer next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The ggem is showin a coastal Thu/Fri. The gfs is more like a frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The ggem is showin a coastal Thu/Fri. The gfs is more like a frontal passage Euro's more of just light 1-3 snows with clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2/9-2/12 should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah could be a refresher again this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 tim kelly just said february warm up second half of month, no one mentioned that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 tim kelly just said february warm up second half of month, no one mentioned that here I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Maybe a relax and reload mid late month? The only thing that really ends winter would seem to be the loss of the epo? tim kelly just said february warm up second half of month, no one mentioned that here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the other day he said they get their guidence from some special kind of modeling....do they have their own programs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the other day he said they get their guidence from some special kind of modeling....do they have their own programs? With that guy, who knows what he means..lol. There will always be relaxing and reloading, but per weeklies...I don't see any change really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i have it on a lot when im doing other things, have twc on a lot too.....ot but they had supernatural tornado specials on last night.....boy theyve really jumped the shark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We in deep winter, possibly memorable for some locals in the eastern areas. if we warm up, it's a quick day or two. All vision, no science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 tim kelly just said february warm up second half of month, no one mentioned that here Dude has gone off deep end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 With that guy, who knows what he means..lol. There will always be relaxing and reloading, but per weeklies...I don't see any change really. Warm up doesn't have to mean bad...I'd gladly warm up to 20-25F high temps, lol. That'd be like a 10-15F mean temp rise from what we've been dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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