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February pattern discussion

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Also -- keep in mind ... as the last event demonstrated, -NAO isn't a prerequisite.   Most are aware of this, and the index (structure of synoptic features notwithstanding) can certainly help (or hurt). 

 

As Scott has alluded and I agree, you can make do pretty well with a Pac/EPO based winter... 

 

Btw, I mentioned this yesterday... There continues to be stochastic returns from the runs re the relay off the Pac, which goes onto be Monday's possible system along the MA/NE coasts.   NCEP is still mentioning the sampling issue with the dynamics for that in their discussion:

 

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN DESIRED FOR THE ERN SYSTEM SUN-MON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPR SUPPORT... WEAK NERN PAC ENERGY AND SHEARED ENERGY OVER ALASKA... FINALLY REACH WRN CANADA BY SAT. THE SMALL SCALE NATURE OF BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FCST DIFFICULTY.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Posted

Also -- keep in mind ... as the last event demonstrated, -NAO isn't a prerequisite.   Most are aware of this, and the index (structure of synoptic features notwithstanding) can certainly help (or hurt). 

 

As Scott has alluded and I agree, you can make do pretty well with a Pac/EPO based winter... 

 

Btw, I mentioned this yesterday... There continues to be stochastic returns from the runs re the relay off the Pac, which goes onto be Monday's possible system along the MA/NE coasts.   NCEP is still mentioning the sampling issue with the dynamics for that in their discussion:

 

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN DESIRED FOR THE ERN SYSTEM SUN-MON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPR SUPPORT... WEAK NERN PAC ENERGY AND SHEARED ENERGY OVER ALASKA... FINALLY REACH WRN CANADA BY SAT. THE SMALL SCALE NATURE OF BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FCST DIFFICULTY.

I learn something new every year, and what I have learned this season is that the misconception regarding the need for a neg NAO to get a blockbuster is just that...as misconception.

I have tended to broadbrush -EPO/+NAO as more of a SWFE pattern, so I continue to hone my skill each and every year.

The NAO simply allows for more margin for error, but the absence of it is, in fact, not prohibitive to the penning of a new case or three in the Kocin book.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I learn something new every year, and what I have learned this season is that the misconception regarding the need for a neg NAO to get a blockbuster is just that...as misconception.

I have tended to broadbrush -EPO/+NAO as more of a SWFE pattern, so I continue to hone my skill each and every year.

The NAO simply allows for more margin for error, but the absence of it is not prohibitive to penning a new case or three in the Kocin book.

 

 

It was definitely lucky for us to see the size of system we did without a NAO block...this thing closed off and got captured at the perfect moment for us.

 

But yeah, that's what it takes...perfect luck and timing for storm of that magnitude without downstream blocking...so not impossible, but you need some extra breaks. We did have a tiny bit of a pseudo block from the Saturday system that helped us to a degree, but the pattern overall was still a bit progressive than is typical for a high end KU...which likely cost NYC a historic blizzard and a major storm all the way back to PHL.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

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Also -- keep in mind ... as the last event demonstrated, -NAO isn't a prerequisite.   Most are aware of this, and the index (structure of synoptic features notwithstanding) can certainly help (or hurt). 

 

As Scott has alluded and I agree, you can make do pretty well with a Pac/EPO based winter... 

 

Btw, I mentioned this yesterday... There continues to be stochastic returns from the runs re the relay off the Pac, which goes onto be Monday's possible system along the MA/NE coasts.   NCEP is still mentioning the sampling issue with the dynamics for that in their discussion:

 

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN DESIRED FOR THE ERN SYSTEM SUN-MON. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPR SUPPORT... WEAK NERN PAC ENERGY AND SHEARED ENERGY OVER ALASKA... FINALLY REACH WRN CANADA BY SAT. THE SMALL SCALE NATURE OF BOTH PIECES OF ENERGY IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FCST DIFFICULTY.

I've been reading with interest the talk up on this forum. 

 

I'm in Atlanta, and for us down here, a -NAO is almost necessary for us to get anything of any consequence. 

I guess I need to move up there... :-)

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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It was definitely lucky for us to see the size of system we did without a NAO block...this thing closed off and got captured at the perfect moment for us.

 

But yeah, that's what it takes...perfect luck and timing for storm of that magnitude without downstream blocking...so not impossible, but you need some extra breaks. We did have a tiny bit of a pseudo block from the Saturday system that helped us to a degree, but the pattern overall was still a bit progressive than is typical for a high end KU...which likely cost NYC a historic blizzard and a major storm all the wya back to PHL.

We actually availed of that because otherwise, our 2-3' record-breaking blizzard would have been a 1-2', "predestrian KU",  and James would have tied an anchor to his shoe and plunged into Cape Cod, MA Bay.

The progressivity it what ascended this from major to epic in ene.

Karma evens out.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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We actually availed of that because otherwise, our 2-3' record-breaking blizzard would have been a 1-2', "predestrian KU",  and James would have tied an anchor to his shoe and plunged into Cape Cod, MA Bay.

The progressivity it what ascended this from major to epic in ene.

Karma evens out.

Feb 13 was the same and I could argue a bunch more. I have always liked transient blocks in an -EPO state, seems to be a great foretelling of potential, add in some Atlantic Gulf moisture and rock on.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Feb 13 was the same and I could argue a bunch more. I have always liked transient blocks in an -EPO state, seems to be a great foretelling of potential, add in some Atlantic Gulf moisture and rock on.

I'm always trying to figure out the best pattern up here, though it must be close to what you guys need in SNE. Just slightly different, lol....probably don't need too much of a -EPO as it's cold enough as is in January, but without it I wonder if we'd be just seeing cutters right now.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'm always trying to figure out the best pattern up here, though it must be close to what you guys need in SNE. Just slightly different, lol....probably don't need too much of a -EPO as it's cold enough as is in January, but without it I wonder if we'd be just seeing cutters right now.

there are so many ways your climo maximizes potential I would look for the things that don"t allow snow for you as that list is way smaller.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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whats cool is I have been alive for 14/15 of these Jerry all 15

 

Once again, here is the list of storms total over 20 inches
here at Blue Hill Observatory's history dating back to 1885,
with the new storm update:
 
1) 38.7 on 24-28 Feb, 1969
2) 30.8 on 26-28 Jan, 2015
3) 30.3 on 3-5 Mar, 1960
4) 30.1 on 6-7 Feb, 1978
5) 30.0 on 31 Mar - 1 Apr, 1997
6) 29.8 on 6-8 Mar, 2013
7) 26.6 on 8-9 Feb, 2013
8) 24.7 on 17-18 Feb, 2003
9) 24.3 on 5-7 Dec, 2003
10) 23.0 on 5-7 Mar, 2001
11) 22.2 on 16-17 Feb, 1958
12) 21.0 on 9-10 Feb, 1969
13) 20.5 on 22-23 Jan, 2005
14) 20.3 on 12 Dec, 1960
15) 20.0 on 31 Jan - 1 Feb, 1898
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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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We wouldn't have noticed the euro being off by 50 miles if there weren't 20 million people who missed a blizzard that was forecasted. With eps having a better solution vs the op Monday it's a flag. I doubt it misses.

It was off by more than that...the deformation-jack that was over metro NYC ended up over metro Boston, and e-central MA.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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whats cool is I have been alive for 14/15 of these Jerry all 15

Once again, here is the list of storms total over 20 inches

here at Blue Hill Observatory's history dating back to 1885,

with the new storm update:

1) 38.7 on 24-28 Feb, 1969

2) 30.8 on 26-28 Jan, 2015

3) 30.3 on 3-5 Mar, 1960

4) 30.1 on 6-7 Feb, 1978

5) 30.0 on 31 Mar - 1 Apr, 1997

6) 29.8 on 6-8 Mar, 2013

7) 26.6 on 8-9 Feb, 2013

8) 24.7 on 17-18 Feb, 2003

9) 24.3 on 5-7 Dec, 2003

10) 23.0 on 5-7 Mar, 2001

11) 22.2 on 16-17 Feb, 1958

12) 21.0 on 9-10 Feb, 1969

13) 20.5 on 22-23 Jan, 2005

14) 20.3 on 12 Dec, 1960

15) 20.0 on 31 Jan - 1 Feb, 1898

7 have come since the turn of the century. Either we are due for regression or this is the new normal, big storms.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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well it was more than Mass centric, you forgot about 40 mile East Of NYC in LI

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/hydrometDisplay.php?event=stormTotalv3_48&element=snow&centeron=BOX

Yeah, the part that hit BOS and coastal plain was supposed to hit say Dendrite or western Mass (west of ORH). Not far away from eastern Mass. The EURO busted hard for a large population segment but in the grand scheme of things, it's still the King. BOS area was always forecast to get crushed, so no surprise there.
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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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I give the Euro credit for being the first to catch onto the large scale blizzard that ended up happening. But it did fail pretty hard on the placement of max qpf to the west in the very short term. It had similar issues in the Feb 2013 blizzard, though it wasnt as adamant in how west it pushed things within 24 hrs if i recall correctly. The nam was just as atrocious in the short term as it was in the feb 2013 storm. I hate that thing

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