Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 He knows his stuff, but he is also known in the field as someone who hypes and has blown a lot of calls because of it. But don't all mets blow calls and forecasts? It's just part of the field. He is partnered up with 2 of the best in the field in Maue and D'aleo. He's known to everyone in the field, he's on national cable news networks..He's extreme,,but it works..and he's made a living off of it. People know him, and he's good enough that people will pay for his services. I love his style. I just gravitate towards that type of personality..I understand it's not for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 But don't all mets blow calls and forecasts? It's just part of the field. He is partnered up with 2 of the best in the field in Maue and D'aleo. He's known to everyone in the field, he's on national cable news networks..He's extreme,,but it works..and he's made a living off of it. People know him, and he's good enough that people will pay for his services. I love his style. I just gravitate towards that type of personality..I understand it's not for everyone He sucks in people like you. Traders like him even if he blows calls...he can move markets. However, that doesn't mean it gives him a right to hype stuff up about the pattern and global warming. He knows his stuff and knows what he is doing, but there is a reason why many people roll their eyes when he calls for cold and snow every season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 He sucks in people like you. Traders like him even if he blows calls...he can move markets. However, that doesn't mean it gives him a right to hype stuff up about the pattern and global warming. He knows his stuff and knows what he is doing, but there is a reason why many people roll their eyes when he calls for cold and snow every season.Do you think he cares? He's making a living for his family. He's doing it his way and it works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Do you think he cares? He's making a living for his family. He's doing it his way and it works Well that has nothing to do with credibility. Some make a great living being more realistic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 coldest and snowiest month EVER, nuff said, Feb 15 is the new standard Looking back at the stats for Central Park/KNYC, February was incredibly impressive especially considering the warmer modern climate and the two frigid months that surrounded it (-3 in Jan and -5 in March). -Monthly departure was -11.4F -7 nights in the single digits -Winter low of 2F on 2/20 -17 double digit negative daily departures, 5 daily departures of -20 or greater -13.6" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Does JB have bad credibility? In the eyes of other Mets? Certainly. Even the educated public knows it's more for show than anything. I know some folks who got sucked in, but they have a similar personality as you do, haha. Weather is only fun when it's hyped. They are snow plow drivers who want to hear the hype days in advance even if it doesn't work out. They actually prefer that to a more correct forecast that's dull. It keeps them checking back. It has nothing to do with credibility but more to do with business and marketing. The plow drivers I know that pay for his columns and stuff look at it more as entertainment than true forecasting. They can get that from the NWS. And I'm sure JB's forecasts for pay are more toned down than his free products and tweets...which he is using to suck people in. The man is a very smart business guy, he knows what works to bring in the dollars. Just like I've noticed you tend to tone down what you write on here for your forecasts on Facebook. You put stuff out here sometimes that makes it seem like you are oblivious to models that are showing less impact, and you'll still be posting "it's coming and it's going to be big." Then on FB you'll put something out much more conservative, like we need to wait and see, some models are backing off, etc. JB does the same thing, hype it up in some circles but when the forecast is on the line for customers, tone it down to match reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 he's a BS artist and there are a lot of suckers who fall for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 One thing for sure the other extremists, the climate alarmists hate him passionately. Whatever happened to the middle of the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 One thing for sure the other extremists, the climate alarmists hate him passionately. Whatever happened to the middle of the road. I don't like his overwhelming arrogance, his propensity to look for conflict and to make everything personal, and his unwillingness to admit when he's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Codfishsnowman was very impressed with Feb. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Do you think he cares? He's making a living for his family. He's doing it his way and it works So do the guys running narcotic mills. Financial worth isn't the be all end all measure of success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 In all honesty, I never thought a February could possibly ever be colder than Jan. with the increased sun angle, etc. In my mind, February was always a weaker month with wetter/heavier snows and lots of melting afterwards, and with winter winding down late in the month. I never even imagined this. Still shocked. I guess winter really isn't over on Feb. 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 In all honesty, I never thought a February could possibly ever be colder than Jan. with the increased sun angle, etc. In my mind, February was always a weaker month with wetter/heavier snows and lots of melting afterwards, and with winter winding down late in the month. I never even imagined this. Still shocked. I guess winter really isn't over on Feb. 1st. February had consistently been one of the warmer months in recent years, really only February 2003 and 2007 would be considered cold Februarys since 2000...so I suppose you could say we were due for a correction (even taking into context overall backround warming)....we got a minor correction in 2014 and then of course, this year was just obscene: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 February had consistently been one of the warmer months in recent years, really only February 2003 and 2007 would be considered cold Februarys since 2000...so I suppose you could say we were due for a correction (even taking into context overall backround warming)....we got a minor correction in 2014 and then of course, this year was just obscene: Yeah, lol at the graph for 2015. Looks like Feb. '79 was the last brutally cold Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 22, 2015 Share Posted May 22, 2015 Back when my weather interest began to include statistics, I received for several years the "Uncle Wethbee Weather Almanac", which included the daily norms for NYC temps. My initial issue showed the norms for 1921-1950, and for that period at least, Jan in NYC averaged only a fraction of a degree lower than Feb. The daily mean temp slowly decreased from 34 to 32 thru Jan, then a few days into Feb it bottomed out at 31 for nearly a week, then began climbing and reached 36 by month's end. The 31-60 means had no such Feb cold-pit, but slid to 33 about a week into Jan and remained stuck there thru about Feb 14. Since the brutal Feb of 1934, NYC's coldest month on record by nearly 2F, was included in both 30-yr period, it may be that a heavier regression was applied to the 31-60 numbers. In any case, that one month with temps running 13-14F below normal certainly bent the 30-yr norms appreciably. Also, it may be the case that with a warming climate, the shoulder seasons' anomalies will appear stronger than the mid-season trends. (Note: 2015 appears to be NYC's 3rd coldest February, coldest month since Jan 1977, and 9th coldest for any month.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 24, 2015 Author Share Posted May 24, 2015 Back when my weather interest began to include statistics, I received for several years the "Uncle Wethbee Weather Almanac", which included the daily norms for NYC temps. My initial issue showed the norms for 1921-1950, and for that period at least, Jan in NYC averaged only a fraction of a degree lower than Feb. The daily mean temp slowly decreased from 34 to 32 thru Jan, then a few days into Feb it bottomed out at 31 for nearly a week, then began climbing and reached 36 by month's end. The 31-60 means had no such Feb cold-pit, but slid to 33 about a week into Jan and remained stuck there thru about Feb 14. Since the brutal Feb of 1934, NYC's coldest month on record by nearly 2F, was included in both 30-yr period, it may be that a heavier regression was applied to the 31-60 numbers. In any case, that one month with temps running 13-14F below normal certainly bent the 30-yr norms appreciably. Also, it may be the case that with a warming climate, the shoulder seasons' anomalies will appear stronger than the mid-season trends. (Note: 2015 appears to be NYC's 3rd coldest February, coldest month since Jan 1977, and 9th coldest for any month.) You might be surprised but ...no. It'll be totally absorbed in the din of 360 n-average worth of data. Think of it this way, March of 2012 was 10 to 15 above normal region wide... (March 2012 + February 2015)/ 2 = ~ 0 gain or loss. ..and there are lots and lots and lots of other months above and below to play absorption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 You might be surprised but ...no. It'll be totally absorbed in the din of 360 n-average worth of data. Think of it this way, March of 2012 was 10 to 15 above normal region wide... (March 2012 + February 2015)/ 2 = ~ 0 gain or loss. ..and there are lots and lots and lots of other months above and below to play absorption. John, purely from statistics the mean is most vulnerable to extremes on either end. Eg: Ages of your sample run mostly in the 50s/60s but you have no one under 40 and 3 over 95. Median would correct for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Ok. Boston is not going to get greater than 120" of snow. I promise you. Write it down, record it, throw on yoga pants and choreograph some slick moves to the beat of it. Do whatever the hell you wish.couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 You might be surprised but ...no. It'll be totally absorbed in the din of 360 n-average worth of data. Think of it this way, March of 2012 was 10 to 15 above normal region wide... (March 2012 + February 2015)/ 2 = ~ 0 gain or loss. ..and there are lots and lots and lots of other months above and below to play absorption. Sorry for the much-delayed response - we left for SNJ the day before you posted this, and when we returned 9 days later all discussion was on sub-50 maxima in June. I can fully understand the effect of March 2012 against Feb 2015 in the 30-yr means. However, I cannot see how each of the 360 months in those means would affect Feb 2015 or vice versa. If the regression is such that a warm July can mediate a cold Feb, then I admit to having no idea how that works. I would think that the regression for any portion of a year could not extend all that far before/after the subject period without "over-regressing" (doubt that term exists) the data into a flat line. Of course, I'm demonstrating my statistical ignorance with this post. Trivial FYI: Feb 2015 was 10-13F below the 81-10 avg here, but March 2012 was "only" 7-8F above avg in central/northern Maine. March 2010 actually was milder, the 2012 heatwave more than countered by the near-absolute absence of cold in the earlier March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.