CT Valley Snowman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's some pretty frikin awesome CAA tommorrow, dropping all day with a late FEB sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's some pretty frikin awesome CAA tommorrow, dropping all day with a late FEB sun angle.Models have struggled with similar setups this month. Still cold, but I expect models to be at least a couple of degrees too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Long Island area: I looked at the GFS and GEFS through their entire runs and they keep it frigid through 3/7-3/10. Don't think our next 32 degree crack is due to us around the ides of March. The EPO will keep it frigid through mid-March. I like the depiction of early next week major snow fall to moderate ice storm on the 6Z GFS, looks about right too. Don't buy the warm cutter one bit on the Euro, we know that is 100% wrong in the pattern. My take on 2/23-3/15: 18 inches of snow, and only one day above freezing for the high. I am 65-70 % confident of this verifying, and let's see how I do once it is 3/15/2015. I bet some of you agree that this could be right too. For you New Englanders I think you have 3-4 weeks of true winter still ahead before any thaws come. The leftovers of February and first half of March looks frigid and snowy and or icy. The second half of March looks like the end and probably closer to normal temps. Don't think above normal yet with frigid ocean temps and all the snow cover to eventually melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Long Island area: I looked at the GFS and GEFS through their entire runs and they keep it frigid through 3/7-3/10. Don't think our next 32 degree crack is due to us around the ides of March. The EPO will keep it frigid through mid-March. I like the depiction of early next week major snow fall to moderate ice storm on the 6Z GFS, looks about right too. Don't buy the warm cutter one bit on the Euro, we know that is 100% wrong in the pattern. My take on 2/23-3/15: 18 inches of snow, and only one day above freezing for the high. I am 65-70 % confident of this verifying, and let's see how I do once it is 3/15/2015. I bet some of you agree that this could be right too. For you New Englanders I think you have 3-4 weeks of true winter still ahead before any thaws come. The leftovers of February and first half of March looks frigid and snowy and or icy. The second half of March looks like the end and probably closer to normal temps. Don't think above normal yet with frigid ocean temps and all the snow cover to eventually melt.should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Models have struggled with similar setups this month. Still cold, but I expect models to be at least a couple of degrees too low. Not with CAA . It will drop all day with sun. They struggle this time of year on cold sunny days with no wind.. being too low. Like Tuesday at first look you'd go low teens..but adjust for warm sun angle gets you 18-19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not to be a debbie downer and bring up the end of winter days here, but, wondering if things finally go full on unfavorable for conus cold by mid-march...we lose the PNA by march 1 of course, but the wpo/epo hangs on. Seems like there is a risk we lose the epo at least though with further retrogression afterwards. i see very little hope for a -nao/ao developing in the next few weeks so im assuming thats status quo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not to be a debbie downer and bring up the end of winter days here, but, wondering if things finally go full on unfavorable for conus cold by mid-march...we lose the PNA by march 1 of course, but the wpo/epo hangs on. Seems like there is a risk we lose the epo at least though with further retrogression afterwards. i see very little hope for a -nao/ao developing in the next few weeks so im assuming thats status quo here.nobody is being a Debbie if they see spring coming,lol winter will end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 nobody is being a Debbie if they see spring coming,lol winter will end Lol I never know who I'm going to piss off in here talking about warm ups. Either way, I'm open to the pattern discussion if anyone has thoughts/ideas..That's sort of where my head is wandering towards as March progresses, but I'm still skiddish with such an impressive Pacific setup that would want to favor the pattern weve seen so prevalent of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Fire up the Morch talk here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45834-march-into-not-a-morch-pattern-discussion/?view=getnewpost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not with CAA . It will drop all day with sun. They struggle this time of year on cold sunny days with no wind.. being too low. Like Tuesday at first look you'd go low teens..but adjust for warm sun angle gets you 18-19 BDL, MMK, DXR and IJD all up one degree last hour. BDR and HVN up two degrees. Models FTL. It's almost Morch, I mean, March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 BDL, MMK, DXR and IJD all up one degree last hour. BDR and HVN up two degrees. Models FTL. It's almost Morch, I mean, March.Eill fall mid- late afternoon as Caa increases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not to be a debbie downer and bring up the end of winter days here, but, wondering if things finally go full on unfavorable for conus cold by mid-march...we lose the PNA by march 1 of course, but the wpo/epo hangs on. Seems like there is a risk we lose the epo at least though with further retrogression afterwards. i see very little hope for a -nao/ao developing in the next few weeks so im assuming thats status quo here. Cohen's research took a collosal dump this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Lol I never know who I'm going to piss off in here talking about warm ups. Either way, I'm open to the pattern discussion if anyone has thoughts/ideas..That's sort of where my head is wandering towards as March progresses, but I'm still skiddish with such an impressive Pacific setup that would want to favor the pattern weve seen so prevalent of late I guess those w coast temps and the feedback mechanism argue for some sort of ridging to want to sustain itself there, (it has) what I'm saying is would any +EPO tend to be transient given those w coast + sst's and/ or just keep getting pushed back as we get close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Lol I never know who I'm going to piss off in here talking about warm ups. Either way, I'm open to the pattern discussion if anyone has thoughts/ideas..That's sort of where my head is wandering towards as March progresses, but I'm still skiddish with such an impressive Pacific setup that would want to favor the pattern weve seen so prevalent of late Talk about at +PDO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 BDL, MMK, DXR and IJD all up one degree last hour. BDR and HVN up two degrees. Models FTL. It's almost Morch, I mean, March. yup, BDR made it up to 25 and BDL up to 20 today despite forecasts for steady or slowly falling temps all day. Took till late PM for temps to really dive. It's definitely not January anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Yeah. I still want to see some sort of a -NAO before disrobing. Maybe somehow we run the table with a good Pacific, but it's a gamble. We gamble, we won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago US model CFSV2 continues hinting at the almost unthinkable for the NE: A challenge to FEb 1934. Amazing JB did get one of his extreme predictions right. Still can't believe the cold we had. Just relentless cold. The absolute peak outbreaks weren't obscene by our standards, but it was just relentless how many nights in the single digits and below 0F with highs in the teens and low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 My "mildest" daily minimum that month was 5, 2nd was 4, 3rd/4th tied with 1. Jan. 2009 had a mildest minimum of 12, Feb. 2007 had it at 14. Jan. 2001 (18) is the only other month without a minimum 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 JB did get one of his extreme predictions right. Still can't believe the cold we had. Just relentless cold. The absolute peak outbreaks weren't obscene by our standards, but it was just relentless how many nights in the single digits and below 0F with highs in the teens and low 20s. Average temperature of 4F for the month of February pretty much sums it up. Almost equal time spent below zero as time spend above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 JB did get one of his extreme predictions right. Still can't believe the cold we had. Just relentless cold. The absolute peak outbreaks weren't obscene by our standards, but it was just relentless how many nights in the single digits and below 0F with highs in the teens and low 20s. coldest and snowiest month EVER, nuff said, Feb 15 is the new standard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2015 Share Posted May 15, 2015 coldest and snowiest month EVER, nuff said, Feb 15 is the new standard I really wish we could say that up here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 coldest and snowiest month EVER, nuff said, Feb 15 is the new standard One the cool statistics about this February is that the big blizzard didn't occur in that month. You would think that in the winter of 2014-2015, the snowiest month would have included the HECS blizzard. But it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Codfishsnowman was very impressed with Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Extremeism is the way to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Extremeism is the way to forecast If your goal is to rapidly reduce your credibility...agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 If your goal is to rapidly reduce your credibility...agreed. Does JB have bad credibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Does JB have bad credibility? Well, kind of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Well, kind of. Has he done very well for himself, made himself known, established a solid clientele base? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Has he done very well for himself, made himself known, established a solid clientele base? He knows his stuff, but he is also known in the field as someone who hypes and has blown a lot of calls because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 Does JB have bad credibility?I think it's not good in the public eye of meteorologists. But you have to realize that clients who pay JB do get a slightly different take than what you see on your twitter feed. He is more realistic and a bit less speculative. At least he was when I saw his pay stuff years ago while he was hyping in public. JB is also a very intelligent meteorologist when it comes to large scale weather patterns so he can back up a lot of his stuff with reasonable arguments even if you don't agree with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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