Quincy Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Highly doubtful any of that transpires until the EPO changes. Wake us when it does In meteorology we toss. Nice drip, drip, drip up here. Feels like a late March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Highly doubtful any of that transpires until the EPO changes. Wake us when it does Yeah, objectively ...I'd like to see the EPO actually succeed in flipping signs, too -- and said as much in caveat emptor. There are reasons to question/suspect that... I also get the feeling that NCEP looks over more types of data then we think. Then in these discussion types, ...they don't elucidate what all those are. Especially not Cisco; he's the one paragraph wonder when it comes to writing those discussions. Back in the big season of 1995-1996, I remember reading those discussions while an undergrad at UML, and they were always far more detailed ... going into the tedious relationship between teleconnector domain spaces and so forth.. Then afterward, wrap ups like 'how it effects the dailies.' We don't get that effort anymore. Just "PATTERN CHANGE" - three sentences - "ONE LAST ARCTIC" ...done. There are others that give more, but still not nearly enough 'reasoning' is supplied. One of the reasons why I developed my own skill to read these teleconnectors, and visualize how the weather patterns may modulate out in time, was because I used to read those longer detailed discussions, then experiment how it reflected in the pattern verifications and so forth. I don't think the new comer can benefit nearly as much from what NCEP currently provides in that regard. There's too much one dimension analysis when it comes to -NAO, or +EPO, where the user's interpretation stops at the basic definition of what those mean, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 In meteorology we toss. Nice drip, drip, drip up here. Feels like a late March storm. It really does. That's what happens with the sun angle the same as October 19th and the sun shining. Enjoy it. The cool weather will return in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well it was a good run. Onto Nape season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yeah, objectively ...I'd like to see the EPO actually succeed in flipping signs, too -- and said as much in caveat emptor. There are reasons to question/suspect that... I also get the feeling that NCEP looks over more types of data then we think. Then in these discussion types, ...they don't elucidate what all those are. Especially not Cisco; he's the one paragraph wonder when it comes to writing those discussions. Back in the big season of 1995-1996, I remember reading those discussions while an undergrad at UML, and they were always far more detailed ... going into the tedious relationship between teleconnector domain spaces and so forth.. Then afterward, wrap ups like 'how it effects the dailies.' We don't get that effort anymore. Just "PATTERN CHANGE" - three sentences - "ONE LAST ARCTIC" ...done. There are others that give more, but still not nearly enough 'reasoning' is supplied. One of the reasons why I developed my own skill to read these teleconnectors, and visualize how the weather patterns may modulate out in time, was because I used to read those longer detailed discussions, then experiment how it reflected in the pattern verifications and so forth. I don't think the new comer can benefit nearly as much from what NCEP currently provides in that regard. There's too much one dimension analysis when it comes to -NAO, or +EPO, where the user's interpretation stops at the basic definition of what those mean, for example. That's probably never changing either. Too much effort is being put into graphics now, because people would rather look at an image than read why something is supposed to happen. Down at the local level, all our text products are dying breeds really. The ZFP is pretty much a useless product now when you can get the forecast for your 2.5 km grid (regardless of what you may think of the wording of the point and click). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Without fail. I can always tell when a model run is boring during the winter because you focus on the cold. I do? I actually am more interested in the historic nature of all aspects of this winter,snow is a part not the machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Without fail. I can always tell when a model run is boring during the winter because you focus on the cold. I do? I actually am more interested in the historic nature of all aspects of this winter,snow is a part not the machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's probably never changing either. Too much effort is being put into graphics now, because people would rather look at an image than read why something is supposed to happen. Down at the local level, all our text products are dying breeds really. The ZFP is pretty much a useless product now when you can get the forecast for your 2.5 km grid (regardless of what you may think of the wording of the point and click). Shame shame shame... And, in an indirect way, another example of how technology (quite ironically) dumbs down the same society smart enough to invent it in the first place. What are your personal feelings on that? Is it the demands of the consumers driving that modus operandi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Shame shame shame... And, in an indirect way, another example of how technology (quite ironically) dumbs down the same society smart enough to invent it in the first place. What are your personal feelings on that? Is it the demands of the consumers driving that modus operandi? That's pretty much it. AFDs used to contain serious technical discussion, but the comments from the general public have morphed it into a product where we have to explain things in simplified terms without diving too deep into the weeds. It would be hard for me to muse about the long term today, because we'd get complaints that people don't know what the EPO is, for instance. I almost think we've swung too far to that side honestly. That we're so concerned with nice, clean graphics that we're forgetting to focus on the impacts of the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 That's pretty much it. AFDs used to contain serious technical discussion, but the comments from the general public have morphed it into a product where we have to explain things in simplified terms without diving too deep into the weeds. It would be hard for me to muse about the long term today, because we'd get complaints that people don't know what the EPO is, for instance. I almost think we've swung too far to that side honestly. That we're so concerned with nice, clean graphics that we're forgetting to focus on the impacts of the actual event. I figured it was demand. It always is in such matters. I suppose our field/industry is subjected to the same short sighted nonsense that pervades the "idiocrasy." Heck, one day we may actually try and convict people for being smart You know, it's like people sitting in SUV dense traffic, pumping out industrial farts, ...on their way to some environmental activist think tank charged with strategizing the education of the common consumer ... not to use fossil fuels, lest serve climate doom unto the planet. It's always up to J.Q. Public. It's not really the Government anything. It's not the big corporations that sponsor oil, or rely upon it, either (regardless of moments of indirection). It's all about demand demand demand demand. Cut off the demand, toxic industries disappear immediately. Not to sound like 'one of those' but seriously... this business with apathy and laziness (let's call a rose a rose for a moment...), which is what it is when people don't care to learn the Meteorology, it's a lack of virtue that almost approaches an immorality in a lot of ways. It's entirely possible that technology will one day experience some sort of set back on a global scale; it would catapult everyone's SOL (..standard of living, but ironically, they would be sh!t outta luck!) back to something more primal. The purest among us that care to know how things work, those are the ones who will survive such a scenario - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I figured it was demand. It always is in such matters. I suppose our field/industry is subjected to the same short sighted nonsense that pervades the "idiocrasy." Heck, one day we may actually try and convict people for being smart You know, it's like people sitting in SUV dense traffic, pumping out industrial farts, ...on their way to some environmental activist think tank charged with strategizing the education of the common consumer ... not to use fossil fuels, lest serve climate doom unto the planet. It's always up to J.Q. Public. It's not really the Government anything. It's not the big corporations that sponsor oil, or rely upon it, either (regardless of moments of indirection). It's all about demand demand demand demand. Cut off the demand, toxic industries disappear immediately. Not to sound like 'one of those' but seriously... this business with apathy and laziness (let's call a rose a rose for a moment...), which is what it is when people don't care to learn the Meteorology, it's a lack of virtue that almost approaches an immorality in a lot of ways. It's entirely possible that technology will one day experience some sort of set back on a global scale; it would catapult everyone's SOL (..standard of living, but ironically, they would be sh!t outta luck!) back to something more primal. The purest among us that care to know how things work, those are the ones who will survive such a scenario - I couldn't agree with you more. Not to be hypocritical because I, too have been guilty of it since I left college. Technology has made life too easy and convenient. Society has grown lazier, more impulsive and dangerously predisposed to instant gratification. There is s point of diminishing returns, and I think we are there. Cognitive skills are on the decline. Smartphones are the largest culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I figured it was demand. It always is in such matters. I suppose our field/industry is subjected to the same short sighted nonsense that pervades the "idiocrasy." Heck, one day we may actually try and convict people for being smart You know, it's like people sitting in SUV dense traffic, pumping out industrial farts, ...on their way to some environmental activist think tank charged with strategizing the education of the common consumer ... not to use fossil fuels, lest serve climate doom unto the planet. It's always up to J.Q. Public. It's not really the Government anything. It's not the big corporations that sponsor oil, or rely upon it, either (regardless of moments of indirection). It's all about demand demand demand demand. Cut off the demand, toxic industries disappear immediately. Not to sound like 'one of those' but seriously... this business with apathy and laziness (let's call a rose a rose for a moment...), which is what it is when people don't care to learn the Meteorology, it's a lack of virtue that almost approaches an immorality in a lot of ways. It's entirely possible that technology will one day experience some sort of set back on a global scale; it would catapult everyone's SOL (..standard of living, but ironically, they would be sh!t outta luck!) back to something more primal. The purest among us that care to know how things work, those are the ones who will survive such a scenario - Two words: Carrington Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Snow chances are certainly dwindling moving forward, hopefully we can fart our way 7.8 more inches at BOS for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 I couldn't agree with you more. Not to be hypocritical because I, too have been guilty of it since I left college. Technology has made life too easy and convenient. Society has grown lazier, more impulsive and dangerously predisposed to instant gratification. There is s point of diminishing returns, and I think we are there. Cognitive skills are on the decline. Smartphones are the largest culprit. It is a paradox should humanity's evolutionary course end because the ability to invent means to improve survival prospects led directly to our demise. I'll keep this philosophical sojourn brief, but it will be perhaps humanity's greatest accomplishment, should we survive this technological infancy. I once heard a scientist argue for the uniqueness of our existence by asking, "if the universe is teaming with intelligent life, where are they?" Maybe none of them passed that test? At least none in electromagnetic shouting distance... Anyway, to be clear: between now and ~ March 7, your winter game is still on. If you are of the ilk that can't find happiness/worth to life without the prospect of dystopian snow depths and unthinkable cold, you are going to be challenged to hold it together -- either way -- as there is some truth to the calendar argument/solar insolation gradually eroding the atmosphere's ability to bring the goods. But, technically that shouldn't really become hugely factorable until our latitude reaches past the ides of March. Until then, don't fret and kvetch merely because there is no storm to actually follow in the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 Did Boston (Logan) ever officially go below zero yet this season? Most most has that location -1 ... -3 or thereabouts come Tuesday morning. Wow either way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Did Boston (Logan) ever officially go below zero yet this season? Most most has that location -1 ... -3 or thereabouts come Tuesday morning. Wow either way - BOS has 3 lows below 0 thus far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 what snoozer on the 18Z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 what snoozer on the 18Z gfs not much to look forward too. Thought next weekend had potential but that now looks grinded. Maybe something pops in the med range out of nowhere, who knows. But it is Certainly a boring transition for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Couple of threats on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Couple of threats on there. like Fri which is currently ots? Seems uneventful to me but that's why you make the big money, I'm obv wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 like Fri which is currently ots? Seems uneventful to me but that's why you make the big money, I'm obv wrong. Mar 2nd and Mar 5th look semi interesting...it doesn't have to show a fantasy blizzard in clown range to be considered a threat. A shortwave with some impulse along it at that lead time is perfectly adequate to be considered a threat. This week looks toast, though can't rule out something small near week's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 like Fri which is currently ots? Seems uneventful to me but that's why you make the big money, I'm obv wrong. Well I would say March 5th was something despite QPF output..March 8th and other events that aren't pretty verbatim..but it's active. You know how it goes though..every run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well I would say March 5th was something despite QPF output..March 8th and other events that aren't pretty verbatim..but it's active. You know how it goes though..every run will be different. Oh you're thinking like way out there. I'm not good enough to do that. I'm looking inside 180hr and don't see much. I like early next week though, at least I did but looks warm atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Oh you're thinking like way out there. I'm not good enough to do that. I'm looking inside 180hr and don't see much. I like early next week though, at least I did but looks warm atm. Oh yeah sorry...I thought you meant the run itself. Anyways yeah early next week is probably the more legit deal..but could be milder too. Late this week is a stretch, but I suppose something like isn't unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I would say so far , we are somewhat lucky that we haven't had a gigantic qpf producer on top of the stresses infrastructure Does any know if the models were accurate with their qpf printouts for HFD ,ORH, BED, BOS,PYM I think an area like BED-BVY probably was lucky if they saw .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Weha had .62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Your area was modeled to do well, i figured you were above .50 with 7 or 8 inches that fell for you. I just was thinking that for all the posts that go into talking about models and even QPF before an event, i rarely see posts on how things turned out. I wonder if any model was not too dry for my general area (from Bos to BVY to BED). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Your area was modeled to do well, i figured you were above .50 with 7 or 8 inches that fell for you. I just was thinking that for all the posts that go into taking about models and even QPF before an event, i rarely see posts on how things turned out. I wonder if any model was not too dry for my general area (from Bos to BVY to BED) seemed like most model s,leading up had that max in swct to Kevin then tapered NE. The SVT stuff was there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 seemed like most model s,leading up had that max in swct to Kevin then tapered NE. The SVT stuff was there too.Yup sw ct to Tolland area was highlighted very consistently on the models i looked at. I didnt even look toward S VT but judging by radar and a few on the ground posts during storm N berks to S VT had a solid 8-12" (i would think) at elevation. I saw Mt Snow reported a solid foot . "Sneaky" Big pack out there in parts of S VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Swfe time now. That's the predominant signal. They can be fun but some are painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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