Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 There's going to be discord and arguments ... and resentments .. leveled as the general tenner going forward. There are going to be knee jerk reactionary rebuttals before reading the whole thing. There's going to be those that try and read in and ferret out intent/motives when it is really their problem, not that of the poster. Such is life on a public forum, when the winds of change threaten to bring in farts of discontent. Particularly because despite the Mets trying to thump down/suppress the notion of winter ending... heh, both CDC and CPC teleconnectos end winter abruptly in the first week of March. Sorry, that is just black and white what the American -derived spread has it as of late. It may be that you folks are discussing the nearer term, as in the last 10 days of Feb? Sure, there's room to hold onto winter. After that, PNA plummets; NAO stays positive; WPO and EPO (so the NP in general) flips signs positive 10 days from now, and the AO is in orbit... There's nothing left there in the conservation of mass field argument to prevent a paradigm shift. That said, I have no idea what the Euro -based/derived tele's are indicating, so it is what it is ... Perhaps if that source oppose, then there is a argument - sure. These tele's are also not fixed; they just don't change as fast as the dailies, or the individual model trends. But the CPC/CDC has been flagging/hinting in this paradigm shift/breakdown of current for more than a couple of nightly derivatives at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The euro suite is directly opposite to the gefs.For whatever that's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 PNA turns negative, but it's a Nina like dateline ridge too. That helps the nrn tier while the MA on south wear shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Another tickle down at BDL for February. 16.1. Even if they somehow snuck up to 30 today, the -6 low this morning will lock in another drop in the monthly mean temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 There's going to be discord and arguments ... and resentments .. leveled as the general tenner going forward. There are going to be knee jerk reactionary rebuttals before reading the whole thing. There's going to be those that try and read in and ferret out intent/motives when it is really their problem, not that of the poster. Such is life on a public forum, when the winds of change threaten to bring in farts of discontent. Particularly because despite the Mets trying to thump down/suppress the notion of winter ending... heh, both CDC and CPC teleconnectos end winter abruptly in the first week of March. Sorry, that is just black and white what the American -derived spread has it as of late. It may be that you folks are discussing the nearer term, as in the last 10 days of Feb? Sure, there's room to hold onto winter. After that, PNA plummets; NAO stays positive; WPO and EPO (so the NP in general) flips signs positive 10 days from now, and the AO is in orbit... There's nothing left there in the conservation of mass field argument to prevent a paradigm shift. That said, I have no idea what the Euro -based/derived tele's are indicating, so it is what it is ... Perhaps if that source oppose, then there is a argument - sure. These tele's are also not fixed; they just don't change as fast as the dailies, or the individual model trends. But the CPC/CDC has been flagging/hinting in this paradigm shift/breakdown of current for more than a couple of nightly derivatives at this point. Its usually the same posts that do the "ill turn this non bullish" winter pattern post into "are u over-reacting and ending winter , i dont know why" response. Which post really is over-reacting and reaching. *Seems a clever way to not discuss things turning sour for a bit. Teleconnectors go in toilet , that is gaining traction. Growing liklihood for a big thaw end of month/early March SNE (AN) .Who cares, bound to happen . Sure we maybe ,having our "chances" . Thou that line can be stated for almost any "future" pattern at this point (and is a given) , and can be a way of saying nothing in particular. I hope we cash in next ten days. Then we thaw, we were bound to, could be a big thaw, again we will survive and see where we go after that, all options on table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think you are overstating warmth over the next two weeks, unless you are protecting afterwards? Not clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I am currently thinking ahead to March , number 1 analog is March 1967, locally 20-30 inches of snow with temps -5 to -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Its usually the same posts that do the "ill turn this non bullish" winter pattern post into "are u over-reacting and ending winter , i dont know why" response. Which post really is over-reacting and reaching. *Seems a clever way to not discuss things turning sour for a bit. Teleconnectors go in toilet , that is gaining traction. Growing liklihood for a big thaw end of month/early March SNE (AN) .Who cares, bound to happen . Sure we maybe ,having our "chances" . Thou that line can be stated for almost any "future" pattern at this point (and is a given) , and can be a way of saying nothing in particular. I hope we cash in next ten days. Then we thaw, we were bound to, could be a big thaw, again we will survive and see where we go after that, all options on table. there are only 9 days left in the month, guarantee no big thaw by the end of this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I feel like things may be turning a bit towards more seasonal. Average March en route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah, should things break toward the warmer paradigm suggested by the American cluster -derived tele's ...again, first week of March. That doesn't have to mean March 1, per se. Also, yesterday I suggested that so long as the EPO stayed negative, which it was progged to do so at that time (albeit alleviated some), then winter would be protracted. It's just that as of last night's run, both the WPO and EPO are flipping signs, while the PNA crashes. That doesn't leave much conservation of mass argument for continuing cold. However, since the onset of positive derivatives is so new, the next run could also collapse again... We are battling the calendar, though. That actually (for me) begins around Feb 11 over every year ... (and this is for Kevin), at which time a parked car on a sunny day heats. Prior to that date, ..every year I notice the same thing. Certainly it's a later date in Caribou Maine, and an Earlier one in DCA... All that silliness is intended to convey is that we're gaining insolation per diem, so eventually, it has to get harder. I'm actually wondering about hydro season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Winter is far, far from over. Day 8-10 means: image.jpg Quincy these are from ewall right? Where do you get the ECMWF ENS? I can only find the link to the GFS ENS under MREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 No comments on what the 12z Euro showed for the potentially wet/tainted weekend system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 No comments on what the 12z Euro showed for the potentially wet/tainted weekend system? Probably not here because there is a thread already devoted to that event ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Whoops - sorry, didn't see it. I guess I was overly focused on the pinned topics. Carry on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Quincy these are from ewall right? Where do you get the ECMWF ENS? I can only find the link to the GFS ENS under MREF.It's just the operational run with the mean 500mb heights for days 8-10. Go to the top left and click on "8-10NEW".Have to use WeatherBELL or StormVista for ECMWF ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I doubt we'll beat 1934. A top 5 February looks likely though. Climo is like 20/40 now so we'll start putting a dent in 16.2 degrees. A top 3 appears very likely and #2 is within reach. Using 20/10 today, MEX days 2-8 and climo (41/21) for Feb. 27-28, they'd go 17.9F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Speaking with regard to pure stats, Hasn't Don S posted Stats that without a PNA ridge or Blocking, that Boston has been very unlikely to see a 6" + snowfall in a single storm. I know people act like Ridge Retro isn't a "pattern change" especially by arguing the non argued point, "it isn't the end of winter" (no kidding) and that this retro isn't the ugliest scenario by any means, but historically Boston needs a PNA ridge or a -NAO to have a real shot at 6" plus events.(if I recall reading Don S's fantastic statistical posts i think somewhere in the neighborhood of only 10% of Boston Snow events over 6" have occured in a non PNA+ or -NAO environment) now I understand how stats can be hyperfocused on and that a warning event can happen but It just seems unlikely. Is that not a fair assessment until the Ridge undergoes a more favorable alignment for East coast cyclogenesis. Also lets not exaggerate this last point, and say ya coastals won't be forming every 4 days, I mean given back drop of Don S's PNA/NAO Boston stats, that it's unlikely for any coastal to give us 6"+ until the ridge has a more favorable alignment. (I think 6"+ will be more realistic in deep interior, finally ) The reason I mention this is because I would tend to be a bit more skeptical on any medium to long range threats that show "Warning snowfall events in BOS" given the lack of either PNA ridge or -NAO blocking. Can we try not to knee jerk response this post, and just discuss it on its merits or lack there of for the sake of some trying to identify ways to quantify likelihood of significant snow storms under certain set ups. (I'm not trying to steal anyone's "snow joy". I love snow and I really shouldn't have to put these qualifiers ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I dont think there's any question now. Coldest winter month in history for HFD and ORH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Take em down down down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Talk about gouging your eyes out. I bet flowers are up out there. @ericfisher: While Boston hasn't seen temps hit 40F since all this snow began January 23rd, Salt Lake City, UT hasn't had a high *below* 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Talk about gouging your eyes out. I bet flowers are up out there. @ericfisher: While Boston hasn't seen temps hit 40F since all this snow began January 23rd, Salt Lake City, UT hasn't had a high *below* 40F. SLC is pretty far south compared to New England. But they could get 2 feet in mid may also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Although it has been very good but not epic for snow out here I will certainly remember this winter for the cold. I've had 17 mornings aob 0F since Dec. 1st. Parts of the CT River are frozen for the first time in my 7 years out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It is not every winter when one sees deer walking across a frozen CT River in Middletown, CT like I did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 SLC is pretty far south compared to New England. But they could get 2 feet in mid may also. A 2' snowstorm for SLC would be very rare (at least at the airport). The "benches" at the base of the mountains get more snow. I believe even 12" is uncommon, especially in May. It's not like Denver. The surrounding mountains can snow almost any month, but the valley primarily gets it Dec - early March... and usually in nickel-dime increments. The warm temperatures out there are more a function of the persistent high pressure ridge than the latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I've been looking at the CFS runs on Tropical Tidbits and it looks like a gradual return to normal by mid March, on the 2m anomaly maps. Seems reasonable to me. This ridiculous cold has to end at some point. Models are sniffing out one last big storm on 2/28-3/1 before we start to return to normal? We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I've been looking at the CFS runs on Tropical Tidbits and it looks like a gradual return to normal by mid March, on the 2m anomaly maps. Seems reasonable to me. This ridiculous cold has to end at some point. Models are sniffing out one last big storm on 2/28-3/1 before we start to return to normal? We shall see... I see advisory more likely than warning in this pattern unless your money pit mike or cne/nne , taint as well. But we sure can get bitter cold in between systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't where to put this, but here. The models are retrograding the ridge like we spoke about eventually to near the dateline give or take. However, it is still in a position to give cross polar flow as the PNA drops a bit. Also, some subtle signs that ridging may try to push west or at least knock the PV a bit SW towards NE Canada which helps confluence to our north. Bottom line is that although chances for some messy storms may increase, it seems like the pattern is rather active with multiple threats. It also could be great times for NNE too. March could be fun if we can get tropical convection to migrate back east a bit to the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 My sense is thy we get a big storm for at very end of feb and then borderline events which are. Great for nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't where to put this, but here. The models are retrograding the ridge like we spoke about eventually to near the dateline give or take. However, it is still in a position to give cross polar flow as the PNA drops a bit. Also, some subtle signs that ridging may try to push west or at least knock the PV a bit SW towards NE Canada which helps confluence to our north. Bottom line is that although chances for some messy storms may increase, it seems like the pattern is rather active with multiple threats. It also could be great times for NNE too. March could be fun if we can get tropical convection to migrate back east a bit to the WPAC. Scott, Question. Sorry if it was obvious but , Are you referring to N Atlantic Ridging pushing West to knock the Polar Vortex a bit SW or that Ridging would be pushing West from Dateline to do this, or Just the initial ridge shift to dateline could dislodge the Polar Vort SW . Sounds like this is a decent pattern for sump pump sales and NNE snowfall, as well as active enough to get Bos to break snowfall record eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I meant some weak ridging helping to distort the PV and push it SW into NE Canada. My fault for not being clear. It's a gradient like pattern so we all know the caveats , but could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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