40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 you did tell me twice Jan 05 was not walking in the door. I saw that analog 11 times in 7 days. Can't stress enough how much that means something is going to pop.Might not mean an exact replica but then again maybe.... I also said "heil futility", at one point...as Scott so gleefully recalled. Like I said, if we're bantering in a thread, I'll speak out of frustration....if I didn't alter the outlook, it didn't happen. I said I expected at least two KUs this season, and that at least one would be Miller B east. Don S made a post in the general forum referencing something about Jan '05 along about mid month...I remember because i was going to quote in our thread, but I was tired because it was late. i figured that I'd post it when I woke up, but Jay had beaten me to it by that point. I endorsed the idea. This is why I took the time to draft that prolix this season....because I wanted my thoughts right there in plain english. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well in your winter poem.. What date did you list for a massive kU? You never answered meyes I did what fin poem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 yes I did what fin poem?Your annual winter forecast poem that you issue. What was the date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Your annual winter forecast poem that you issue. What was the date?Kevin I never made a poem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah. I still want to see some sort of a -NAO before disrobing. Maybe somehow we run the table with a good Pacific, but it's a gamble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Kevin I never made a poem Swing and a miss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Yeah. I still want to see some sort of a -NAO before disrobing. Maybe somehow we run the table with a good Pacific, but it's a gamble.Euro Ens look promising if you need a NAO in your hood to get a good snowstorm. I know how much you miss those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any sense of where we are headed late Feb into March? Morch or do we continue building our snowpack in March this year?All anybody can say going forward is that the pattern doesn't look good to support snow in Savannah . J/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro Ens look promising if you need a NAO in your hood to get a good snowstorm. I know how much you miss those. A lot of fails prior. I see his point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A lot of fails prior. I see his point.majority of our blockbusters are the result of transient blocks. Just get me -EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS just a bit east..see if this trends west over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS just a bit east..see if this trends west over the next few days. I'm at 105 on NCEP...looks like it trended way better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS gives me like a half foot on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm at 105 on NCEP...looks like it trended way better. yes, trended better from 18z.. but still east.. maybe another 2-4" even verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS gives me like a half foot on Monday maybe 3-5" right now..at least what I can see with my old eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 maybe 3-5" right now..at least what I can see with my old eyes Yeah it's probably like a 3-6 hit around the pike, more on the south coast. Definitely a progressive system so I wouldn't expect a monster out of this, but a bit NW and we challenge depth records in BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow I would hit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS gives me like a half foot on Monday Pedestrian these days lol Progressive flow would keep this from being something bigger, but we know how things can change 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Pedestrian these days lol Progressive flow would keep this from being something bigger, but we know how things can change 5+ days out. wut that progressive flow is spitting out 14 inches just south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro is a miss GGEM and GFS big hits for Monday. Wonder if Euro starts to come north at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro is a miss GGEM and GFS big hits for Monday. Wonder if Euro starts to come north at 12z? Despite this weeks struggles, I wouldn't bet against the Euro if it's a miss again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 i wouldnt bet against it just yet either and its usually better with southern stream action, those bitter cold temps have me worried about supression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We wouldn't have noticed the euro being off by 50 miles if there weren't 20 million people who missed a blizzard that was forecasted. With eps having a better solution vs the op Monday it's a flag. I doubt it misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We wouldn't have noticed the euro being off by 50 miles if there weren't 20 million people who missed a blizzard that was forecasted. With eps having a better solution vs the op Monday it's a flag. I doubt it misses. Yup, 50mi is usually nothing in a storm that size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Since we are talking long range here, if we step back there are 4 main features so far this winter from my perspective: a prominent -EPO and good PNA spikes a progressive pattern a decent southern stream a positive NAO As we look further into February and into March, do we think these features stay the same or will some change? The biggest case for change might be weak Nino climo which should give us some -NAO. But we have gotten on that horse before and been thrown off. I could see 3 scenarios: The EPO finally turns positive and we flood warm and its spring We get some NAO blocking and everybody happy, me happy too More of the same, with some big misses and some decent hits. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Since we are talking long range here, if we step back there are 4 main features so far this winter from my perspective: a prominent -EPO and good PNA spikes a progressive pattern a decent southern stream a positive NAO As we look further into February and into March, do we think these features stay the same or will some change? The biggest case for change might be weak Nino climo which should give us some -NAO. But we have gotten on that horse before and been thrown off. I could see 3 scenarios: The EPO finally turns positive and we flood warm and its spring We get some NAO blocking and everybody happy, me happy too More of the same, with some big misses and some decent hits. What do you think? Bullet 1 is not likely IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I feel growing confidence the -NAO ain't happening in a steady fashion. I see no signs. But, Pacific looks decent and we can work with transient or east based -NAO setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I feel growing confidence the -NAO ain't happening in a steady fashion. I see no signs. But, Pacific looks have decent and we can work with transient or east based -NAO setups. At least we are getting some NAO pulses showing up. The mean definitely still looks positives but the transient pulses can amplify our storm chances with the PAC setup we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At least we are getting some NAO pulses showing up. The mean definitely still looks positives but the transient pulses can amplify our storm chances with the PAC setup we have. Yeah no issues with that. That works well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 At least we are getting some NAO pulses showing up. The mean definitely still looks positives but the transient pulses can amplify our storm chances with the PAC setup we have. That is something that has changed recently. Maybe that is what continues. But I would suspect that we get a period of -NAO. I just hope it doesn't ruin spring. The reason I say that is because it usually happens in weak Nino's right? Maybe not until later February though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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