CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I think what it comes down to is that they get lax with terminology when addressing the public....like during the blizzard they were attributing the heavy band n and w of Boston to the cf, despite it being along he immediate coast. It was due to the deformation band, but they just generalize and do not pay attention to detail. It doesn't matter to anyone but us. Yeah, I'm not trying to get psychotic with this , my opinion is that the wording was pretty bad. General public definitely has a different interpretation than a knowledgeable person like yourself. Anyways, regardless of relaxation, it's still a BN and active look to me through the next 2 weeks. Maybe a cutter sneaks in, but it doesn't change my opinion. March also looks wintry, but that's an early guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Still a dumb comment. Why not just say it looks like it will relax and we may be done with getting 30" every week. That's an awful statement to make to the public. As someone who has to communicate to the public, it's a horrible statement. That is exactly what he said lol If you look back at my comment , he said "no more 1' + nor'easters in *pipeline *not for winter, not sure how that is continually misquoted unless i missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That is exactly what he said lol If you look back at my comment , he said "no more 1' + nor'easters in *pipeline *not for winter, not sure how that is continually misquoted unless i missed something. I think we're all on the same page. They are pretty lax with terminology and the articulation of their conceptualizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If we get 11" from a SWFE doe anyone give a rats azz that the longwave pattern shifted slightly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That is exactly what he said lol If you look back at my comment , he said "no more 1' + nor'easters in *pipeline *not for winter, not sure how that is continually misquoted unless i missed something. That's stil dumb. How can anyone say that? Nobody can say that for sure unless it's a haphazard guess. See, that's a classic I don't give a fook comment. Irresponsible regardless of right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If we get 11" from a SWFE doe anyone give a rats azz that the longwave pattern shifted slightly? Right. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Firstly, (I think..) what Bouchard was likely intimating was not too dissimilar to the point I tried to make (Ray seemed to get it...): In the absence of AA N. Pacific circulation type, there's no teleconnector mode/modality the would allow it to stay cold and stormy. I don't know the man, and by that I don't normally consume his on-air product and so forth. So I am less familiar with his tenor and styling ... and don't know how to "read in," as it were. I have no reason to defend or spurn his efforts. However, if he's gambling that the EPO breaks down, and it did, then I don't have a problem with a profound pattern change ... most likely to a much warmer one at that. Having said that, I agree with Scott that removing the EPO entirely is the lesser likelihood ...perhaps through the first week of March. It goes against longer term persistence (spanning since last winter at that!) for blocking in the NE Pacific region. Persistence does at some point or another, break down ... I don't see enough evidence now is one of those times. What I was saying by "long wave storm," is more philosophical in nature. Scott, you may have missed my discussing this before, but I was anecdotal wrt to a synoptic lecture given by Dr. Frank Colby a couple of weeks ago. I was an undergrad up at UML, and we were all in the groove of the moment, heads nodding by peripheral vision in a chorus of discordinant "Mm hmm", barely audible "yeah"s, and "right"s, and it all made so much sense in the moment. He spoke of one of his own professors when at M.I.T., and how on a lot of fundamental levels, when a L/W comes in, parks for a while, and regularly spins out storms ... however long that L/W does that, then decays ...modulates toward a new pattern, that time-span is the same storm, with pauses and weaker interludes. I think if we are open minded and can think outside the box here ... 24 days ago, something clicked and we were locked into a favorable L/W that played out with very similar characteristics. I was referring back to that whole conceptualization when I said the long wave storm has ended. We could certainly cash in and still get stuffed with winter events; and truth be told, no one outside this geeky circuit, or outside any annulled lecture by Dr. Frank Colby would ever give a raccoon's whisker ... even if they could muster the intellect to understand what we mean in the first place. To them, if it snows one way, or snows another, it's snowing the whole time. But that is the distinction for us in the forum and/or the lecture halls ... It's not coming from the same set-up. To that I think we can all agree. To make this whole idea even more confusing, you can get massive events that are not really of that ensemble line ilk, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If we get 11" from a SWFE doe anyone give a rats azz that the longwave pattern shifted slightly? I won't care. I look forward to the next SWFE for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Right I agree Tip, but to Will's point, if the pattern goes from storms of 18-24" to ones of quick hitting high impact 8-10" deals, are people really going to run to the heavens and yell "the pattern finally changed!" Just talking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In need some SWFEs to catch up to Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Also our indices that are heavily touted here from CPC are GEFS derived. There are two other sets of guidance that don't always agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 In need some SWFEs to catch up to Scooter Those are kind here. You need a couple of those Feb storms last year that screwed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Right I agree Tip, but to Will's point, if the pattern goes from storms of 18-24" to ones of quick hitting high impact 8-10" deals, are people really going to run to the heavens and yell "the pattern finally changed!" Just talking out loud here. Short answer? No -- like I said, no one outside the circuit of weather-related forums and enthusiast cares. If it snows one way, or another way, it's just snowing the whole time. We definitely are at a breaking point. I think missing tomorrow's event, amid sub-Saharan dry air at that ...will sublimation this some and help. But I don't think the eastern zones including Worcester and Middlesex Co.s' and RI can really handle another 15" at this point without some form of much more pervasive coordination with external help to recover. Maybe the Euro's -- ha ha -- is just dialed into the desperation and is sending some alleviation our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Short answer? No -- like I said, no one outside the circuit of weather-related forums and enthusiast cares. If it snows one way, or another way, it's just snowing the whole time. We definitely are at a breaking point. I think missing tomorrow's event, amid sub-Saharan dry air at that ...will sublimation this some and help. But I don't think the eastern zones including Worcester and Middlesex Co.s' and RI can really handle another 15" at this point without some form of much more pervasive coordination with external help to recover. Maybe the Euro's -- ha ha -- is just dialed into the desperation and is sending some alleviation our way. The euro would be an epic disaster here. Snow to rain which will load up roofs and flood roads, and then ice up immediately after fropa. That just caps off a day after tomorrow scenario. That is the worst possible outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If we get 11" from a SWFE doe anyone give a rats azz that the longwave pattern shifted slightly?I don't care in the least.. some are losing their minds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A cutter ia alleviation? Couldn't be more of the opposite. Say bye to your roofs, thanks euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 A cutter ia alleviation? Couldn't be more of the opposite. Say bye to your roofs, thanks euro! The Euro solution is buyable as much as many are discounting it, highs have been weaker and not dug as far south this year as modeled...so if either the high over North Carolina or the next one coming down from the Dakotas are weaker this could easily feather its way as a cutter between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's the 500 look. Euro loves to dig in that day 6 timeframe only to ease off a bit. It could happen, but we've seen that story before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's the 500 look. Euro loves to dig in that day 6 timeframe only to ease off a bit. It could happen, but we've seen that story before. The entire setup down there is odd, the GFS/GGEM depiction of a NW-SE diving wave giving AL and GA a blizzard is odd but the Euro's intial deal over NC/TN isn't exactly any less bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It's the 500 look. Euro loves to dig in that day 6 timeframe only to ease off a bit. It could happen, but we've seen that story before. Boston snowstorm is the most likely solution . Boston, MA the new Pittsburgh, NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Short answer? No -- like I said, no one outside the circuit of weather-related forums and enthusiast cares. If it snows one way, or another way, it's just snowing the whole time. We definitely are at a breaking point. I think missing tomorrow's event, amid sub-Saharan dry air at that ...will sublimation this some and help. But I don't think the eastern zones including Worcester and Middlesex Co.s' and RI can really handle another 15" at this point without some form of much more pervasive coordination with external help to recover. Maybe the Euro's -- ha ha -- is just dialed into the desperation and is sending some alleviation our way. this snow is beyond sublimation stage, it's wind packed hard, I walked on it today with minimal sinkage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 The euro would be an epic disaster here. Snow to rain which will load up roofs and flood roads, and then ice up immediately after fropa. That just caps off a day after tomorrow scenario. That is the worst possible outcome. That's certainly a good point too - Did the run come with a lot of rain, though? I thought it was just a weak inland runner that swathed a brief warm sector thru, almost uneventfully. That's what it looked like to me given the schit versions of the products I am allowed to see... But at D5 the Euro has a long fetch SW flow setting that extends from the Arklotex to New England, with a clear baroclinic axis NW of us... It just doesn't press that arm of high pressure E across Ontario in time to force said impulse on a farther south trajectory. I could care less about flooded roads, but roof is another matter entirely. I suppose what that means is that the region has a 3 or 4 days to clear their roofs else they play with that risk. I can't imagine raining on them would be good in any sense ...no. There's been multiple structural failures already even with just 30 -40" of pow pow. I tell you what though...as awesome as that spectacle is out of doors, that snow is powder almost down to the base. I checked in my own pack. There's just not been enough warm air or liquid intervention into this inside three weeks to have that be other types (save for ocean tainting..). One 55 F DP event with rain will mash that sucker down to 18" with certain rapidity - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The euro would be an epic disaster here. Snow to rain which will load up roofs and flood roads, and then ice up immediately after fropa. That just caps off a day after tomorrow scenario. That is the worst possible outcome.exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's certainly a good point too - Did the run come with a lot of rain, though? I thought it was just a weak inland runner that swathed a brief warm sector thru, almost uneventfully. That's what it looked like to me given the schit versions of the products I am allowed to see... But at D4 the Euro has a long fetch SW flow setting that extends from the Arklotex to New England, with a clear baroclinic axis NW of us... It just doesn't press that arm of high pressure E across Ontario in time to force said impulse on a farther south trajectory. I could care less about flooded roads, but roof is another matter entirely. I suppose what that means is that the region has a 3 or 4 days to clear their roofs else they play with that risk. I can't imagine raining on them would be good in any sense ...no. There's been multiple structural failures already even with just 30 -40" of pow pow. I tell you what though...as awesome as that spectacle is out of doors, that snow is powder almost down to the base. I checked in my own pack. There's just not been enough warm air or liquid intervention into this inside three weeks to have that be other types (save for ocean tainting..). One 55 F DP event with rain will mash that sucker down to 18" with certain rapidity - nice sleet layer here with a touch of freezing rain,my core is 5.7 w-e, NOHRSC shows 5-9 across eastern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 If we get 11" from a SWFE doe anyone give a rats azz that the longwave pattern shifted slightly?If that happens, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Boston snowstorm is the most likely solution . Boston, MA the new Pittsburgh, NH. No, I don't mean that. But in the face of the other data...I'm not sold on it. It could easily be a mixed mess too and congrats VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 nice sleet layer here with s touch of freezing rain,my core is 5.7 w-e, NOHRSC shows 5-9 across eastern New England Yeah, there's definitely some type discrepancies across the area. For much of ORH and Middlesex up my way, it's powder right down the frozen grass-blades. I think it's that way - base on general reporting - mashed pretty tight into Boston proper, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 That's certainly a good point too - Did the run come with a lot of rain, though? I thought it was just a weak inland runner that swathed a brief warm sector thru, almost uneventfully. That's what it looked like to me given the schit versions of the products I am allowed to see... But at D5 the Euro has a long fetch SW flow setting that extends from the Arklotex to New England, with a clear baroclinic axis NW of us... It just doesn't press that arm of high pressure E across Ontario in time to force said impulse on a farther south trajectory. I could care less about flooded roads, but roof is another matter entirely. I suppose what that means is that the region has a 3 or 4 days to clear their roofs else they play with that risk. I can't imagine raining on them would be good in any sense ...no. There's been multiple structural failures already even with just 30 -40" of pow pow. I tell you what though...as awesome as that spectacle is out of doors, that snow is powder almost down to the base. I checked in my own pack. There's just not been enough warm air or liquid intervention into this inside three weeks to have that be other types (save for ocean tainting..). One 55 F DP event with rain will mash that sucker down to 18" with certain rapidity - It wasn't a lot of rain, but those temps argue good melting verbatim. The thing is, water has nowhere to go. Everything clogged with snow and ice. Ground is Frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, there's definitely some type discrepancies across the area. For much of ORH and Middlesex up my way, it's powder right down the frozen grass-blades. I think it's that way - base on general reporting - mashed pretty tight into Boston proper, too. Bottom 4" cement . Then pow pow with a 2" layer of 27-28 snow under the last 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The euro would be an epic disaster here. Snow to rain which will load up roofs and flood roads, and then ice up immediately after fropa. That just caps off a day after tomorrow scenario. That is the worst possible outcome. The worst possible outcome is what you described followed by a foot plus of wind swept powder on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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