40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, we'll see what happens. Pattern is awesome, ripe with chances. Good convo, but sry for derailing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You're missing the point. There is a limit......the luck will run out. I'm sure there are winters 200+ in what is now Boston recorded on some old birch scroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm sure there are winters 200+ in what is now Boston recorded on some old birch scroll.In Mooseup, CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We've also gotten lucky in this pattern...you can't expect that a pattern like this would be giving Boston 70" of snow in 2 weeks if it happened again. You still need the exact shortwave details to come together to give multiple 12"+ snowstorms including 20"+ events. The next time it happens, BOS could get 33" in two weeks...still pretty awesome right? But far from historic material. So regression to the mean is still applicable within a good pattern too. zero to do with climo though, climo doesn't change patterns, it doesn't determine whether a pattern continues to produce or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 powderfreak, on 10 Feb 2015 - 9:22 PM, said: C'mon Bday boy, you are the sultan of winter. You often contend negative posts about cold and snow. It's not a bad thing. I wish I had your optimism all the time. I really truly do. Not saying that to be a db. cool but I contend people melting down when on the cusp of great runs, same ole she it 2010 2013 2014 2015. Not you but I already see some panic posts, it's obscenely funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 zero to do with climo though, climo doesn't change patterns, it doesn't determine whether a pattern continues to produce or not. Bingo. The argument is set up to fail because we did get exceedingly lucky to hit what we've got so far, but epicosity very possibly continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 In Mooseup, CTits Moosup and I doubt it, probably South shore epic OES while you smoked exhaust again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 zero to do with climo though, climo doesn't change patterns, it doesn't determine whether a pattern continues to produce or not. Yes, climo is a composite of different patterns. So climo itself isn't an argument straight-up. But climo includes past patterns that were similar, so we can look at those past similar patterns and conclude that the luck is unlikely to continue at this level. Certainly doesn't mean we don't break records though. Even another 15-20" the rest of this month is pretty damned good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 zero to do with climo though, climo doesn't change patterns, it doesn't determine whether a pattern continues to produce or not.Which area do you think finishes with more snow this season, Boston, or Powderfreak's hood up in Stowe Village? They are running neck and neck. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 its Moosup and I doubt it, probably South shore epic OES while you smoked exhaust againNot as much as you smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Our luck could run out and we still get 15+ inches over the next 2-3 weeks with this constant barrage of currently modeled near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Which area do you think finishes with more snow this season, Boston, or Powderfreak's hood up in Stowe Village? They are running neck and neck. ... I'm rooting for Boston. If they are ever going to do it it's this year. We have had a very consistent winter though up here since mid-November onward. I always rib Ginxy for wire to wire comments in the fall but this one really has been up here. Only thaw was really Grinch storm. We will have the length of the season though...deeper into April to sneak it out. And I do think with this consistent parade of systems (even back to Nov/Dec they were coming often), that as the seasonal jet lifts we stand a decent chance to reap in March. Especially if the ridge out west retrogrades a bit and the trough here moves west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Which area do you think finishes with more snow this season, Boston, or Powderfreak's hood up in Stowe Village? They are running neck and neck. ...changing the narrative, your narrative change is like the GW alarmists who five years ago said my grandkids wouldn't see snow who now say well GW causes more snow. Now let's just take that question for the next two weeks which is the pattern limit I can see. I say yea Boston stays neck and neck with PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I will say Rays seasonal deformation comment was pretty spot on from a couple weeks ago...even with a punted first half of winter Boston has certainly earned it lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not as much as you smoked.I smoked 20 inches less you 15 meh difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The luck factor evens out...we've seen plenty of patterns in the past that long range mets say looks awesome, and it ends up looking awesome but doesn't produce anything and folks are left saying "that wasn't an awesome pattern."luck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Luck within the constraints of an inherently 'lucky' pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 luck? Natural variation or variance if you want to use more scientific terms. Another name for "chaos"...the same longwave pattern would not produce the same results every time due to these small nuances within the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 changing the narrative, your narrative change is like the GW alarmists who five years ago said my grandkids wouldn't see snow who now say well GW causes more snow. Now let's just take that question for the next two weeks which is the pattern limit I can see. I say yea Boston stays neck and neck with PFChanging what narrative? I'm making a germaine point. You ramble on in these incoherent tirades. I'm not talking the next two weeks, there you go, changing the narrative. I'm talking the rest of the season....hey, maybe the pattern will go til April, who knows...maybe it will never end and we'll have a white memorial day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Tell your this and this is climo influence due to the big orange blob and not luck we won't average 15 degrees the rest of the month but we will probably be a top ten below normal month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I smoked 20 inches less you 15 meh difference? You type like a caveman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We certainly had some luck though. No question. I agree with Will in that the same overall long wave pattern could and very well likely would not be as prolific. This is all with a +NAO you too. If you told me this would happen with a +NAO, I'd say you'd be crazy, but the Pacific has been a pants tent over the west coast. Just placed perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 luck? Something like that, maybe it wasn't the right word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We certainly had some luck though. No question. I agree with Will in that the same overall long wave pattern could and very well likely would not be as prolific. This is all with a +NAO you too. If you told me this would happen with a +NAO, I'd say you'd be crazy, but the Pacific has been a pants tent over the west coast. Just placed perfectly. New sig?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Natural variation or variance if you want to use more scientific terms. Another name for "chaos"...the same longwave pattern would not produce the same results every time due to these small nuances within the longwave pattern. Yes that's it in a more articulate way. Chaos.It takes some "luck" to go 1717 style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Natural variation or variance if you want to use more scientific terms. Another name for "chaos"...the same longwave pattern would not produce the same results every time due to these small nuances within the longwave pattern. yes variance is a term I agree fits better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, we'll see what happens. Pattern is awesome, ripe with chances. Good convo, but sry for derailing lol I agree pattern is great , if it sticks for another 2 weeks I like us scoring another 15-25" inches of snow (assuming next 2 threats don't get more than 5" combined. . If Ridge Retrogrades we are out of the sweet spot, if Ridge Retrogrades and we have no blocking.....get ready to resume cutter season. Yes our luck would probably be better than the first 7 weeks of MET winter when everything was a cutter but I would bet if 2 weeks from now we re-enter the early Jan like pattern we will be lucky to get 8" from Feb 24 to End of March. So let's say that gives us 26" additional from now. Obviously blindly pinning the tail on the donkey guesstimates but let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes that's it in a more articulate way. Chaos. It takes some "luck" to go 1717 style. That sort of luck would be like Thursday night whiffing but Boston scoring 6.5" on INV.T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I dont really think because folks have seen 60-70" of snow over the last 20 days that we are now going to Start seeing fails. We've maximized the chances over the last few weeks, thats for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 BOS at 78 now. It would appear the record of 107.6 is within reach given how early it is and the stability of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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