HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think I see Rays point as far as the streak ending. We have gone 5 for 5 in the last month. We miss a couple, trade for a linebacker off the scrap heap who turns out just to need motivation. Next thing you know we are winning the AFC and on to the SB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I got 8" last Thursday. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Isn't ORH already at 90+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think I see Rays point as far as the streak ending. We have gone 5 for 5 in the last month. We miss a couple, trade for a linebacker off the scrap heap who turns out just to need motivation. Next thing you know we are winning the AFC and on to the SB That's the thing though...we haven't. We missed a couple. Those 15-30" storms make up for a lot of sins though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Over the last month or so the bar was raised quite high on these events, First it started up here and recently in SNE but now they have to be lowered back to reasonable levels as it is tough to sustain these high end events over the long haul and eventually, All good tings will come to an end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's the thing though...we haven't. We missed a couple. Those 15-30" storms make up for a lot of sins though. I forgot about that 2" event. I think the others were pretty solid...Have there Ben 5 events since that Saturday storm before the blizzard? 6? I have lost count So 4/5 or 5/6. Nice streak in my book I would like a 20"er since my biggest has been "only" 14.5. That has been a tough nut to crack here. The Octobomb has been my only one in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah I guess I look at it in the same way Will describes. The actual pattern itself hasn't changed, but it's possible we may not get these ridiculous events with such frequency. That said, pattern still is sweet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Any sign of a -NAO/AO on the Euro or GFS ensembles? edit: I see the GEFS doesn't show any sign of it and it also says party is over after 2/25 or so. Not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah I guess I look at it in the same way Will describes. The actual pattern itself hasn't changed, but it's possible we may not get these ridiculous events with such frequency. That said, pattern still is sweet looking. yep, much better than 11 going into Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good call, Will...forgot about that. Glad you could see what I was getting at because it went right over birthday boy's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah I guess I look at it in the same way Will describes. The actual pattern itself hasn't changed, but it's possible we may not get these ridiculous events with such frequency. That said, pattern still is sweet looking. Man, I'll never question you when you say that ever again. I remember a month ago when you and Will we're blowing the trumpet and banging the drum about a sweet pattern coming and many of us were like yeah right uh huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yep, much better than 11 going into FebAbsolutely. I mentioned that last week. 2011 was about over by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm not at all down on the pattern....quite the contrary. Just has to slow down a bit is all I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good call, Will...forgot about that. Glad you could see what I was getting at because it went right over birthday boy's head.has zero to do with climo. You are backtracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 has zero to do with climo. You are backtrackingWhat in the world are you talking about? If you can't grasp the fact that we aren't going to make 150-200" in Boston because of climo, then I don't think I can help you lol Pretty simple...nothing to backtrack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm not at all down on the pattern....quite the contrary. Just has to slow down a bit is all I mean.why? I mean it's the same pattern. And don't go throwing out any time people post negative about snow I respond BS. It doesn't HAVE to slow down, it can though but I see the same pattern, missing by a couple of degrees of latitude is not it slowing down, I see Miller B bombs continuing, hopefully we cash in on the existing stable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's the thing though...we haven't. We missed a couple. Those 15-30" storms make up for a lot of sins though. Yeah they do...those storms make up for Dec 1 through Jan 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What in the world are you talking about? If you can't grasp the fact that we aren't going to make 150-200" in Boston because of climo, then I don't think I can help you lol Pretty simple...nothing to backtrack why? I mean it's the same pattern. And don't go throwing out any time people post negative about snow I respond BS. It doesn't HAVE to slow down, it can though but I see the same pattern, missing by a couple of degrees of latitude is not it slowing down, I see Miller B bombs continuing, hopefully we cash in on the existing stable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What in the world are you talking about? If you can't grasp the fact that we aren't going to make 150-200" in Boston because of climo, then I don't think I can help you lol Pretty simple...nothing to backtrackif that is what you originally said I would agree but a bunch of people posted why you were wrong but you said we all lacked reading comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well, the streak had to end sometime.....two huge whiffs. Time for the constraints of climo intervene a bit. 1717 remains unchallenged, perhaps...climo doesn't determine existing patterns,climo has zero to do with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Regression to climo only really matters when determining pattern imo. Now that we're locked in an exceedingly rare pattern, several SD above normal, I don't think that argument works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 why? I mean it's the same pattern. And don't go throwing out any time people post negative about snow I respond BS. It doesn't HAVE to slow down, it can though but I see the same pattern, missing by a couple of degrees of latitude is not it slowing down, I see Miller B bombs continuing, hopefully we cash in on the existing stable pattern. C'mon Bday boy, you are the sultan of winter. You often contend negative posts about cold and snow. It's not a bad thing. I wish I had your optimism all the time. I really truly do. Not saying that to be a db. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 if that is what you originally said I would agree but a bunch of people posted why you were wrong but you said we all lacked reading comprehension.That is what I said. The people who implied I gave up on Sunday ignored the fact that I said "perhaps". Last I checked, that is not an absolute term. Was I a little disappointed,with trends today? Sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 climo doesn't determine existing patterns,climo has zero to do with this Regression to climo only really matters when determining pattern imo. Now that we're locked in an exceedingly rare pattern, several SD above normal, I don't think that argument works. Ok. Boston is not going to get greater than 120" of snow. I promise you. Write it down, record it, throw on yoga pants and choreograph some slick moves to the beat of it. Do whatever the hell you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Regression to climo only really matters when determining pattern imo. Now that we're locked in an exceedingly rare pattern, several SD above normal, I don't think that argument works. We've also gotten lucky in this pattern...you can't expect that a pattern like this would be giving Boston 70" of snow in 2 weeks if it happened again. You still need the exact shortwave details to come together to give multiple 12"+ snowstorms including 20"+ events. The next time it happens, BOS could get 33" in two weeks...still pretty awesome right? But far from historic material. So regression to the mean is still applicable within a good pattern too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ok. Boston is not going to get greater than 120" of snow. I promise you. Write it down, record it, throw on yoga pants and choreograph some slick moves to the beat of it. Do whatever the hell you wish. If it ends up with 120, that's well above the previous record which def isn't climo slowing this thing down between now and then. That would be prolific for the rest of FEB/MAR. The only ceiling is how long/stable this pattern remains with a bit of variance depending on exact tracks etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We've also gotten lucky in this pattern...you can't expect that a pattern like this would be giving Boston 70" of snow in 2 weeks if it happened again. You still need the exact shortwave details to come together to give multiple 12"+ snowstorms including 20"+ events. The next time it happens, BOS could get 33" in two weeks...still pretty awesome right? But far from historic material. So regression to the mean is still applicable within a good pattern too. Oh, I don't expect this again in my lifetime. Still ridiculous, but it's definitely a prolific pattern that could produce the snowiest winter with any stroke of positive variance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 We've also gotten lucky in this pattern...you can't expect that a pattern like this would be giving Boston 70" of snow in 2 weeks if it happened again. You still need the exact shortwave details to come together to give multiple 12"+ snowstorms including 20"+ events. The next time it happens, BOS could get 33" in two weeks...still pretty awesome right? But far from historic material. So regression to the mean is still applicable within a good pattern too. The luck factor evens out...we've seen plenty of patterns in the past that long range mets say looks awesome, and it ends up looking awesome but doesn't produce anything and folks are left saying "that wasn't an awesome pattern." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If it ends up with 120, that's well above the previous record which def isn't climo slowing this thing down between now and then. That would be prolific for the rest of FEB/MAR. The only ceiling is how long/stable this pattern remains with a bit of variance depending on exact tracks etc.You're missing the point. There is a limit......the luck will run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The luck factor evens out...we've seen plenty of patterns in the past that long range mets say looks awesome, and it ends up looking awesome but doesn't produce anything and folks are left saying "that wasn't an awesome pattern." But it depends what scale we use... Another 2-3 weeks of prolific events is really a microcosm in the grand scheme of things. I just don't think climo is a valid excuse for a tapering of these last few weeks. To get 70 again over the next few weeks won't happen, but epicosity can continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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