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January 29/30 Clipper


HoarfrostHubb

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I thought this morning you were all about this trending into warning criteria?

 

At any rate, there's still some uncertainty with that back end stuff in E and NE MA that could produce.

Right...this morning.

But my optimism waned throughout the day.

By the time BOX issued the warning, I perplexed.

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Man, this is really a waste of a very vigorous shortwave...this would be a classic mini-nuke of like 8-12" if it had just a bit more room to work with. Only Maine gets the big benefit this time around.

And eastern Maine at that.

 

GFS looks weaker. These late bloomers can produce up here and points downeast, but we're now on the western fringe and this is not trending our way. Probably still a decent event for Dryslot.

 

There was a lot of talk this afternoon about possible pre-emptive school closings for Friday based on what appeared to be a sure-bet 8-10" on top of the 27" we just got, but it's now looking less impressive. With a "meh" front-end and marginal temps, I could see much of the day being pretty dull until things start to wrap up.

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GFS at 24 hours is so darn close for SE areas as it starts to blow up.  That band that develops later in the day really has to be watched.

 

This is a painfully close call as Will says, the 0z is actually a closer call for SE/E Ma.  If the GFS has any clue - and that's always debatable Ginxy is right, really just have to watch it develop.  The banding that develops will be pretty impressive in terms of the hook even overnight Friday pulling SSW from the GOM.   20 mile difference on this model is a couple of inches or a PITA.

 

FWIW...Harv believes it does make it back into EMA Friday night.

 

gfs_namer_048_precip_p48.gif

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