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January 29/30 Clipper


HoarfrostHubb

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Oe of the best on the AFD..so you've got to believe it. May even have to shift west

 

AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE FRI

AND THEN EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED MID LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS STRONG FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN PARENT LOW OVER NY STATE
FADING/FILLING AND GIVING WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST FRI. THIS ROBUST MID/UPPER TROUGH RESULTS
IN SECONDARY LOW PRES DEEPENING TO ABOUT 985 MB OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MAINE 12Z SAT. IN ADDITION THE MID/UPPER LOW CAPTURES THE
SURFACE CYCLONE AND PULLS IT BACK BRIEFLY TOWARD EASTERN MA
COASTLINE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS SLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN AND
RESULTS IN A ROBUST COMMA-HEAD DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST
MA POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY.

AS MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS FROM AN OPEN WAVE TO A CLOSED
CIRCULATION FRI NIGHT OVER EASTERN MA A MODEST SNOW BAND WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SETUP AND
INTENSITY. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS QPF YIELDS 0.5-0.6 INCHES OVER
NORTHEAST MA...POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY. THEREFORE
HAVE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ESSEX AND MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXPAND THE WARNING WESTWARD INTO
WORCESTER COUNTY PENDING 00Z MODEL TRENDS. GIVEN THE BANDING
SIGNATURE AND MODEL CONSENSUS QPF EXPANDED ADVISORIES INTO SOUTHERN
WORCESTER/NORTHEAST CT/NORTHERN RI INTO NORTHERN BRISTOL COUNTY OF
MA FOR 2-4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THOUGHT PROCESS WAS SNOWFALL MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF WARNING AND/OR
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT REALIZING ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC REGARDING SNOW REMOVAL ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED 30+ EARLIER THIS WEEK. ALSO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL MAY
RESULT IN SNOW LOAD/STRESS TO ROOFS. THEREFORE OUR WARNINGS AND
ADVISORIES ARE SOMEWHAT BASED ON IMPACTS TOO.

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May not be the type of system that falls in the wheelhouse of the rgem. My biggest concern isn't qpf I just think we may be too warm here. It actually looks really good to me overnight tomorrow

 

How would this be different than the one we just saw?  It seems a stretch to say the last system was a RGEM type system and this one may not be in its wheelhouse.  Its the same deal of how quickly the low gets going once it gets out over the ocean.

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Well it's impact based too I guess. Might not normally issue one. Peabody on NE is probably in a decent spot.  It wouldn't shock me if you grabbed 6.

 

Is the impact because of the snow on the ground?  I'm not sure how this system is impact based.  Everyone just got out of a blizzard, they can deal with a few inches of snow.  Its not like its November and they play the "impact" card of people aren't used to snow yet.

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Is the impact because of the snow on the ground?  I'm not sure how this system is impact based.  Everyone just got out of a blizzard, they can deal with a few inches of snow.  Its not like its November and they play the "impact" card of people aren't used to snow yet.

Because 4" of snow would currently strain infrastructure more, since it coming on the heels of a blizzard.

Large urban areas are clogged with snow...this isn't ski resorts and picnic tables.

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