Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 EURO looks more progressive, this looks like it is going to be a nice run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 euro looks great through 72, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 57hr snow starts, snowing through 78hr, no temp issues on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Bullet dodged this ECM run, heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 euro for the win but can we trust it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks like ~30 hrs of all snow on euro. colder than gfs. both are hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BIG hit on the EURO, the 500mb s/w gets a little neg tilted after 81 hours so there could be some deformation bands of snow. This is a foot plus for most north of turn pike and 6-10" around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 euro for the win but can we trust it? This year might be its worst verification in a long time. However Millers Bs drive all of them nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 different type of storm so euro might get a better handle of this one plus gfs is in same camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BIG hit on the EURO, the 500mb s/w gets a little neg tilted after 81 hours so there could be some deformation bands of snow. This is a foot plus for most north of turn pike and 6-10" around Philly. All true but Philly and immediate burbs are really close to the good stuff....further N/W have no problems scoring. Just a little jog S and we're all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12 ECM snow map near identical to 0z, total big dog barking 12-15" snow for 90% of PA, some mix Philly, Harrisburg and Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 2nd and 9 from the 30 yard line, we're down 6. Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro baby. Let's do it. 12" starting at the TPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 different type of storm so euro might get a better handle of this one plus gfs is in same camp. That's what I'm thinking that the the Euro shouldn't be dissed on this type of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It's a 1500 mile long MECS, yeah never seen anything like that on a snow map before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Such a drastic cutoff for philly on the Euro. Remember the last storms and cutoffs. Could go either way IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Such a drastic cutoff for philly on the Euro. Remember the last storms and cutoffs. Could go either way IMO. Either the rain/snow line or the precip. line - welcome to the Delaware Valley region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 this is a different storm but yes if the 850/0 line jogs north then issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 different type of storm so euro might get a better handle of this one plus gfs is in same camp. Perhaps instead of the EE rule, this one will follow the EGG rule... Euro GFS GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Some good new was that the UKMET came south from Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro and GFS in the same camp is SOOO different from last Tuesday's storm. However, only a small shift north would bring mixing problems to much of the area as many have noted so that's definitely what to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Euro baby. Let's do it. 12" starting at the TPK. 10422935_937211979625249_5727864467754725630_n.jpg Man that's looks like 6-12" gradient across the city itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Even the GFS has a changeover at hour 75 in my area. NAM goes to rain north of I 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BTW, those ratios are a bit crazy... the warm tongue that both the Euro and GFS show moving in aloft will cut ratios down from the fantasy 15:1-20:1 values maps are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 BTW, those ratios are a bit crazy... the warm tongue that both the Euro and GFS show moving in aloft will cut ratios down from the fantasy 15:1-20:1 values maps are showing. Is that down in the Philly area? I'd think up my way they'd be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just a bit more south please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Is that down in the Philly area? I'd think up my way they'd be better. You'll have better ratios but even there, a large tongue of greater than -10C air moves in. Clouds start to get water droplets in them above -10C and that rimes the flakes, thus cutting the ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You'll have better ratios but even there, a large tongue of greater than -10C air moves in. Clouds start to get water droplets in them above -10C and that rimes the flakes, thus cutting the ratios. Thanks Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nothing is etched in stone for this storm yet. It's just nice to have a significant threat which is now less than 3 days away. The exact track will likely end up changing from the current model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Huge run at 0Z. If GFS bumps north by 50 miles, we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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