Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just want to add that the bust potential looks high again with this one as well around the Philly area. Could be some death band(s) setting up west to east just north of the slp that could crush areas. A lot of moisture with this one. Then you have the icing caveat. Just my opinion but what seems like a simple storm to track could yield some surprises Rain snow line will waiver on the models from this far out resulting in many mood swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS 12"+ for PENNSYLVANIA except touch less Philly from mix. Clone of last nights epic euro map. Usual caveat bust potential is huge for us in SEPA. Trying to follow this lightly can't absorb too titanic fails in short range in the same week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When you guys talk about ice, do you envision the possibility of a major ice storm? Or more on the sleet side. I love the snow but hate ice storms. I'm not a pro but I don't see indicators showing this as a ice event at this point. Currently, Snow / Sleet or Rain depending on run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 congrats. Philly jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Off-topic but GFS is close to something nice late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When you guys talk about ice, do you envision the possibility of a major ice storm? Or more on the sleet side. I love the snow but hate ice storms. Possible yes with arctic air coming in a narrow corridor could have quite an ice issue. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 yeah day 6 is so close on gfs, anyway back to sun/mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 CRAS takes a similar track to the GFS and is a hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't see an ice threat. Maybe if the storm were happening 7a instead of 7p, but there's going to be 11 hours of daylight and 12 hours of south/southeast winds in advance of this. It's not an icing path either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What's a CRAS? CRAS takes a similar track to the GFS and is a hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 RGEM supports the NAM SLP track of Nebraska to Missouri rather than the GFS track 150 miles further south over TX- AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEM is huge hit north burbs of philly, philly on the edge of precip issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think this is kind of just a typical late January winter storm without blocking. 6-10 Poconos/NNJ, 4-8 Philly burbs and CNJ with sleet or rain for a period, and snow to rain ending as snow for PHL and SNJ, 2-4 or slushy 1-3 type scenario. Maybe just orient the usual r/s line a little more horizontal than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET is farther north than the NAM fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So everything on the 12z has come North today....some guidance hammers us, others not so much. Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lets see what euro brings then its model blending time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET is farther north than the NAM fwiw: I was feeling ok after the GGEM, UKMET i did not want to see THAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET is farther north than the NAM fwiw: Just dont see how that 994 L is gonna cut into that wall of BLUE. Just doesnt look right. It eeks of redevelopement or a further SE L placement. Thats not wishing, thats just phyics. For once we have fresh cold in place that wont be pushed around as easily. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM has a partner in the UKMET as significant outliers with just 60hr lead time. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET was pretty much the same as last night. Wasn't the low over Cleveland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET was pretty much the same as last night. Wasn't the low over Cleveland? Now it's Erie GGEM came 200 miles north. 18" bulls eye in Quakertown. Were toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Could any of my northern burb buddies let me crash there for a night?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT but look at the GGEM @ 144 hours, HELLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Could any of my northern burb buddies let me crash there for a night?! You don't fear any more a north bump? 25 miles more and we are out of the game but maybe Allentown at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You don't fear any more a north bump? 25 miles more and we are out of the game but maybe Allentown at that point. Oh i def do, in fact I expect it, just saying just in case things look good 24 hours out maybe I could crash at one of your places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With a -NAO beginning to settle into place for this.... and -AO also think we see the storm run towards West Virginia or slides just south of the Mason Dixon Line giving us overunning then redevelopment takes place near the Va Capes then that new storms heads Northeast... Otherwise looking at the UKMET and NAM growing more concerned for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 With a -NAO beginning to settle into place for this.... and -AO also think we see the storm run towards West Virginia or slides just south of the Mason Dixon Line giving us overunning then redevelopment takes place near the Va Capes then that new storms heads Northeast... Otherwise looking at the UKMET and NAM growing more concerned for freezing rain. That could morph into one of those 1994 ice storms you are correct. Late development further north from Virginia Capes and we lock in the cold. Crazy i thought this would be a more stable storm to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Oh i def do, in fact I expect it, just saying just in case things look good 24 hours out maybe I could crash at one of your places After you last choice of locations in NE might be best if you shelter in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 After you last choice of locations in NE might be best if you shelter in place I'm broke man lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That could morph into one of those 1994 ice storms you are correct. Late development further north from Virginia Capes and we lock in the cold. Crazy i thought this would be a more stable storm to predict. Yes, exactly my concern warm air screaming over top of very cold air ... hey look the cold air is coming in and its being reinforced just going with physics here...... Ice storm like 1994 yes my exact thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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