Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 low near sw pa at 66 steady light snow northwest zones with light mix / rain down at shore points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 low near sw pa at 66 #1 it's the NAM #2 It's the NAM outside of 24 hrs. could it be right? maybe but I wouldn't even bother with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 definite mixing issues southern areas from 66 onward r/s line up to i78 by 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 good thing nam is terrible, no worries till 12z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is essentially a 1-3"/2-4" thump changing to rain for some then ending Monday morning. Not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0z GGEM and the CRAS are both way South. The CRAS not being overamped is a huge red flag here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0z GGEM and the CRAS are both way South. The CRAS not being overamped is a huge red flag here. Considering the NAM is a huge red flag IMO even more so 2+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I cant believe I was worried about this being suppressed, now its just too far north. This area just cannot win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The 0z GGEM and the CRAS are both way South. The CRAS not being overamped is a huge red flag here. The 06Z NavGEM though came north, I know the CRAS is often overamped on systems coming up from the Gulf but I don't know about these west-east movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I cant believe I was worried about this being suppressed, now its just too far north. This area just cannot win. Relax, one model that is horrible outside of 24 hours shows you changing over right now and the storm is still 3 days out. one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Relax, one model that is horrible outside of 24 hours shows you changing over right now and the storm is still 3 days out. one model. Fair enough, but the trend is certainly not my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM looks pretty amped at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM fails to warm low levels and is hinting at a lot of ice. The fact this occurs at night will not help matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z RGEM looks pretty amped at 48 hours Big ole Bermuda high setting up on the RGEM post 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol....GFS complete opposite of what NAM did so far.... at 48 not holding as much energy back in the southwest and not digging the sw over the northern plains as much as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 this is why we ignore the nam, 12z gfs looks great thru 63hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 heavy snow moving in at 66hr / 6z mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 54 hours light snow and flurries over most of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 gfs is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 farther south than 6z slightly and colder....hp in a better position and nosing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys this will be a cold storm there may be a little bit of mixing on the south side but the NAM solution is well.......you've been NAMed. Why the up and downs with each model run? Trust me the GFS will pull something strange on the 18z run which will have some folks on here "worried".....relax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 snow moves in 18z sun, moving out at 0z tuesday, nice gfs run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So close for Philly, this will be a nailbiter till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys this will be a cold storm there may be a little bit of mixing on the south side but the NAM solution is well.......you've been NAMed. Why the up and downs with each model run? Trust me the GFS will pull something strange on the 18z run which will have some folks on here "worried".....relax! I agree with this....even the NAM has a tough time eroding ll cold. Look out on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So close for Philly, this will be a nailbiter till the end. NW burb special? I mean just northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just want to add that the bust potential looks high again with this one as well around the Philly area. Could be some death band(s) setting up west to east just north of the slp that could crush areas. A lot of moisture with this one. Then you have the icing caveat. Just my opinion but what seems like a simple storm to track could yield some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 stormvista has a dot of 15+" in the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 stormvista has a dot of 15+" in the western burbs yup bulls eye area, solid 6-12" for others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just want to add that the bust potential looks very high with this one as well around the Philly area. Could be some death band(s) setting up west to east just north of the slp that could crush areas. A lot of moisture with this one. Then you have the icing caveat. Just my opinion but what seems like a simple storm to track could yield some surprises. What else is new? Still I think this a majority frozen storm for most of the area save for S Jersey, even if 850's get above freezing, I think the Ice threat could become very real with the snowpack across the area and the majority of precip falling at night. I just really have a hard time seeing the surface temps getting above freezing with the high in that position as well, though stranger things have happened. GFS has been good lately, would much rather have that in my corner than the NAM in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When you guys talk about ice, do you envision the possibility of a major ice storm? Or more on the sleet side. I love the snow but hate ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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