Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 for best guess place model runs on dart board, models are all over the place! Not really.....two camps: A. perfect hit with i95 as r/s line. 6-10" possibility stormB. sheared and a graze to our south 12z should hone in on one of those.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not a fan of the NAM in the long range but it looks to have the general idea....HP moving off SE Coast, LP moving out of the Texarkana region, ball of molasses dome of HP stretched across the Canadian border, 50/50 in place, and the PV pivoting back SW. This model imo would be a huge hit if extrapolated but alas it is the NAM in the lr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not really.....two camps: A. perfect hit with i95 as r/s line. 6-10" possibility stormB. sheared and a graze to our south 12z should hone in on one of those.... Put NAM in the A camp I am pretty certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Put NAM in the A camp I am pretty certain. Yep that's a near perfect setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 One of the models or at least some ens members at 12z will spit out a MECS / HECS, mark my words, really close to being something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS teleconnections seem to be holding up on that map - nice blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS teleconnections seem to holding up on that map - nice blocking!BINGO!Trof @ H5 already negative as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS has the same players and teleconnections on the field at the right time perhaps. Already more overunning and more amped up thru 72 vs 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS is a good hit for the area (away from pc and cant post maps on this android). Low is a little far south....bullseyes south jersey and delaware. Might be the se gfs bias at play? Regardless I like what I see. Put this in the camp with the NAM for a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's a start. Still some 90 hours to go on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Congrats PHL metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just a few negatives - the -NAO is east based not in Baffin Bay and the PNA isn't all that much amped. It allows the energy to escape quickly out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just a few negatives - the -NAO is east based not in Baffin Bay and the PNA isn't all that much amped. It allows the energy to escape quickly out to sea. Very good points. Thats the way you have to see whats going on. I gotta log down each model and snow total, like a trend log. Going to make some changes in how I forecast these events. Just gotta have the time to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 JMA is really amped up fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Very good points. Thats the way you have to see whats going on. I gotta log down each model and snow total, like a trend log. Going to make some changes in how I forecast these events. Just gotta have the time to do that. I keep a log of every condition of every surf fishing trip I have made over the past 10 years. This method has helped me to improve at this sport almost exponentially. Logs are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 JMA is really amped up fwiw. PHL metro looks to be in a good spot for snow. It may be 2-4 or 4-8 imop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 PHL metro looks to be in a good spot for snow. It may be 2-4 or 4-8 imop Too far out still, though yes, 12Z looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 CMC is a DT special...so there is still some disparity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12Z GEM is south, but still gives us a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z model updates GEFS- SECS'y UKMET near benchmark track GGEM southern slider PA fringed 84hrs and an eternity to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO baby, 5-10" across region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO baby, 5-10" across regionyepper....great trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is out of its best range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Meanwhile euro has us below 0 Tues morning, that'd be an epic 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 yepper....great trends today What are the trends? Are they to push south, hold serve, or push north? I can't see some of the models on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO baby, 5-10" across region It's nice to see we down this way have a real shot at a good snow. We deserve too! We have nada on the ground right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What are the trends? Are they to push south, hold serve, or push north? I can't see some of the models on my phone. All over the place...but for the 12z: GFS - Southerly but north/improving from 6z. More southern NJ special. GGEM - Way south from 0z, little for everyone ECM - Way north from 0z, SECS-level storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 All over the place...but for the 12z: GFS - Southerly but north/improving from 6z. More southern NJ special. GGEM - Way south from 0z, little for everyone ECM - Way north from 0z, SECS-level storm for all And, OT for this thread, but the Euro has a little something for us Wed. nite - Thursday too :-). Lots of time but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What are the trends? Are they to push south, hold serve, or push north? I can't see some of the models on my phone.More interaction with trailing energy....more amplification...more ridging eastern Greenland .... better separation between systems/sw's ... wetter system. Was a good 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.