Harbourton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not that it matters much but the 12Z Euro run is the warmest yet. What has happened to the "King?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems like the real goods don't show up until after 00Z. Anything earlier would be lighter in nature. But you know how these things go. Probably best to watch radar and match it up with ground obs to see where the real leading edge is. Sounds good radar and ground obs it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KTTN now at 40, 7 degrees above MET forecast high. Dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 12z for NW Chesco - small increase in thump snow....slightly quicker change to plain rain Overall 1.56" of precip with 1.27" falling with temps below freezing Flurries all afternoon today Steadier light snow by 7pm temp 29.8 1230am Heavy Snow temp 27.1 (1.0") 430am Snow mixing with ZR temp 29.6 (7.0" on snow/IP) 430a-830a - 0.48" of ZR temps rise above freezing after 830am with another 0.29" of rain before ending by 130pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM at 12Z has 0 snow at TTN. Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anthony, although I don't know exactly where you are, and believe it or not I don't know what the boundaries of the LHV are, SEPA is running out of room to wetbulb. Dews are creeping past the mid20's both SW and SE of Philly, and temperatures haven't leveled off. WAA doing it's dirty work. South side of lehigh is about 200', North end about 1000' Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 12z for NW Chesco - small increase in thump snow....slightly quicker change to plain rain Overall 1.56" of precip with 1.27" falling with temps below freezing Flurries all afternoon today Steadier light snow by 7pm temp 29.8 1230am Heavy Snow temp 27.1 (1.0") 430am Snow mixing with ZR temp 29.6 (7.0" on snow/IP) 430a-830a - 0.48" of ZR temps rise above freezing after 830am with another 0.29" of rain before ending by 130pm Think this is the best forecast for e. Pa Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anthony, although I don't know exactly where you are, and believe it or not I don't know what the boundaries of the LHV are, SEPA is running out of room to wetbulb. Dews are creeping past the mid20's both SW and SE of Philly, and temperatures haven't leveled off. WAA doing it's dirty work. at PNE, we are 39/21 so still room here. Just a question of how fast we can get this precip in here. The HRRR (which i know is still a little out of its range) looks like some snow to start in PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I hope so. Not for weenie purposes but to test my understanding of things. Still expecting a track on the southern perifery of guidance and 1-3/2-4 for the Philly-TTN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the trend has been for a later start time. not ez to get precip in here with a west wind. main precip might not start till 9pm or later. (southern areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the trend has been for a later start time. not ez to get precip in here with a west wind. main precip might not start till 9pm or later. (southern areas) yeah, if so that is going to hurt the front end thump for sure. Euro shows 2-3 for philly, but i think some of that is backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Think this is the best forecast for e. Pa Sent from my iPhone this would be a nice outcome for your area, a solid storm. wish you luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mt. Holly still has the same warnings/advisories up, despite cutting snowfall a fair amount. And now they have discrepancies, as the point and click for my area (Edison) shows 3-5" snow overnight and 1-3" on the backend, but has us in the 3-4" swath on the snowfall map and my hourly graphic only has ~3" overnight and 0.5" on the back end. The graphic also shows temps above 32F from 4 am to 10 am with almost an inch of rain falling. That would certainly help clear up any roads, so I'm surprised the warnings continue past 5 am and aren't just advisories until then. The warning does mention 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain possible, but the graphic doesn't show it and with temps above freezing, not sure why it's an issue, unless it's later in the morning as temps drop. Hard to plan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mt. Holly still has the same warnings/advisories up, despite cutting snowfall a fair amount. And now they have discrepancies, as the point and click for my area (Edison) shows 3-5" snow overnight and 1-3" on the backend, but has us in the 3-4" swath on the snowfall map and my hourly graphic only has ~3" overnight and 0.5" on the back end. The graphic also shows temps above 32F from 4 am to 10 am with almost an inch of rain falling. That would certainly help clear up any roads, so I'm surprised the warnings continue past 5 am and aren't just advisories until then. The warning does mention 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain possible, but the graphic doesn't show it and with temps above freezing, not sure why it's an issue, unless it's later in the morning as temps drop. Hard to plan... I think they did a good job, considering the great uncertainty with the CAD and precipitation types. The layers upstairs are gonna be wacky, and you might not even go above freezing if track is just 50 miles more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM at 12Z has 0 snow at TTN. Unbelievable Game.Set.Match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM at 84 hours looks more impressive than GFS at the same time - (next storm ?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM at 84 hours looks more impressive than GFS at the same time - (next storm ?) Please stop - this should be deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mt. Holly still has the same warnings/advisories up, despite cutting snowfall a fair amount. And now they have discrepancies, as the point and click for my area (Edison) shows 3-5" snow overnight and 1-3" on the backend, but has us in the 3-4" swath on the snowfall map and my hourly graphic only has ~3" overnight and 0.5" on the back end. The graphic also shows temps above 32F from 4 am to 10 am with almost an inch of rain falling. That would certainly help clear up any roads, so I'm surprised the warnings continue past 5 am and aren't just advisories until then. The warning does mention 0.1-0.25" of freezing rain possible, but the graphic doesn't show it and with temps above freezing, not sure why it's an issue, unless it's later in the morning as temps drop. Hard to plan... If you read the AFD, it gives you reasoning why we did what we did. The point and click is not always going to match up with the warning/advisory text product since the latter is a grouping usually of multiple counties. This is a mess of a system/forecast, thus did not change the warnings at this point despite cutting back the snow amounts. It may be more for impact as opposed to amounts for some areas, but overall I had lowered confidence with the forecast issued this afternoon. The evening and overnight shifts will have another look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 High at TTN was *only* 37. Didn't hit 40. At this point, I'm thinking no more than 2 inches back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Worst part about this storm for se PA is that when the heavy radar returns start appearing we will be drooling however those heavier echoes will merely spell the flooding of warmer air to a good portion of the area. A real mother nature tease. Congrats to whoever is just on the snow line....it will be ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm at a total loss of what is going to happen even up here. Snow, ice, mix, rain, dry slot, i have no idea anymore. Let it ride. I'll try to enjoy whatever happens by drinking tonight and hoping I dont have to go to work tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man it warmed up .....not sure what was forecasted but even in the Poconos it seemed warm through around 230. There were snow showers for a while but then sun and warm. Home at the shore....it feels like rain...don't see accums......I see rain and clean roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Forecast bumped to 34F and rain in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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