tmagan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6Z GFS and NAM both got warmer, at least at TTN... both *maybe* show an inch of snow before a rapid changeover to ice and then rain. Yeah, I think the official snowfall forecasts for New York City are too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So is that snow or virga from south central PA into northern VA? It's either virga or everyone is still asleep in those areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So is that snow or virga from south central PA into northern VA? It's either virga or everyone is still asleep in those areas... Nothing reaching the ground here in western York County...Temp 17 DP of 9...going to take a while to saturate the column... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 a lot of wasted precip incoming... what a crazy change since friday, oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Went to bed after the Euro and assumed I'd wake up to many of the watches being dropped and much lower snowfall forecasts, especially for Central Jersey. Wrong. All the same counties are now under winter storm warnings, including Middlesex, where my snow fall forecast was actually increased a bit - although the gradient is even steeper, from 1=2" in the southern edge of the county to 6-8" in the northern quarter of the county (N of 287, which is east - west in our area), where I live. That's a very steep gradient over about 30 miles. Here's the relevant portion of the AFD and the latest map: THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS MAINLY DERIVEDFROM THE 00Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS LOOKED TO HAVE TO INTENSE OF A LOWPRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE COOLER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE NAM INBETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE SREF AND WPC QPF FORECAST WAS USED ASWELL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF IN THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTSIN ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THECWA IN THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I am punting on this one.....not expecting more than an inch up here. The WAA snows miss us completely now, at least that associated with the warm front which was supposed to provide the thump. Note the warm front now already well to our North across SW NY State and Northern PA: Trainwreck. NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, I think the official snowfall forecasts for New York City are too high.As I said friday....this will be Boston's storm when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So...are we still expecting an icing situation in the Berks county area? Or is this going to be primarily a rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So...are we still expecting an icing situation in the Berks county area? Or is this going to be primarily a rainstorm? Berks is under a Winter Storm Warning and usually hangs on to the cold a bit longer. More frozen precip than rain I would think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM data (total precip 1.50" with 1.17" falling as some form of frozen) Here is the rundown Some flurries late PM with light snow by 630pm temp 29.9 10pm Light snow temp 27.2 (0.5" snow) 1am Moderate Snow temp 26.9 (1.2" snow) 4am Heavy Snow temp 28.0 (4.5" snow/sleet) showed some mixing with IP between 3 and 4am 530 am mix of IP/ZR 28.7 with ZR/IP continuing thru 930am before temps rise just above freezing (0.56" w.e. during this time) Light rain between 930a-2pm with another 0.33" of liquid falling Berks is under a Winter Storm Warning and usually hangs on to the cold a bit longer. More frozen precip than rain I would think.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I passed out early and missed all of 0z. woke up to 6z data and wow at how warm things have trended. I'm still interested in how well this CAD performs...and funny that nam is hinting at early secondary development. but man, GFS (6z) trended way warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS looks colder. intense CAD going on at 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Colin's latest: 2-4" followed by heavy rain.. For ABE. Lmao Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS looks like it wants to drop 3" snow back side after it washes away all snow packs. Gee thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Colin's latest: 2-4" followed by heavy rain.. For ABE. Lmao Sent from my iPhone Wouldn't doubt it, up to 36 already and climbing after a low of 9 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nothing reaching the ground here in western York County...Temp 17 DP of 9...going to take a while to saturate the column... Thanks for the report! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Colin's latest: 2-4" followed by heavy rain.. For ABE. Lmao Sent from my iPhone Well, I'd bump it up an inch or two and slip (pun very much intended) about .1-.25" of icing in there, but yeah, I think ABE does go to plain rain for a time at this point. I'm also not super-confident about the amont of icing, because all along, that CAD signature has been very weak; I actually didn't even notice it until a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How is everyone feeling about the morning commute? It looks like we know what the end result of the storm will be, but it is still a fun challenge to predict road conditions at 6a from Philly north. When the bad icing happened 2 weeks ago, we had an extended run of cold, like the past few days here. Although temps are warming above 32, I would think road and sidewalk, railings, etc are below 32 for a while tomorrow after the surface temp warms above. 1-3" followed by sleet and zr, even if its plain rain at 6-7a could cause major travel issues along the route 1 corridor. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 4KM NAM never gets ABE over 0.5C at the surface tomorrow morning after about 3-4" of snow. That's cutting it awfully close as far as pushing over to plain rain is concerned. Yes, heavy rain + latent heat release of freezing will probably soften and slush things up, but I still wouldn't want to be on the roads up here tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Temps dropped 2 degrees here already. Once temps went up every one smashed totals in half. Lol , I'll keep my 4-8 for lehigh valley, 4" towards the south 8" toward the north with icing being a big concern Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 4KM NAM never gets ABE over 0.5C at the surface tomorrow morning after about 3-4" of snow. That's cutting it awfully close as far as pushing over to plain rain is concerned. Yes, heavy rain + latent heat release of freezing will probably soften and slush things up, but I still wouldn't want to be on the roads up here tomorrow morning. Any tips for the super bowl crowd traveling on what time we are looking at for road conditions to deteriorate? I am having a difficult time trying to estimate if we are talking 5pm or 7pm or even later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I wouldn't point to the temperatures being in the 30's today as a significant factor as to how the storm turns out, it was always forecasted, the dewpoints are still pretty low, etc. If the track and intensity of the storm was different, if the blocking was better, the high a little stronger, that is what is leading to a wet result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How is everyone feeling about the morning commute? It looks like we know what the end result of the storm will be, but it is still a fun challenge to predict road conditions at 6a from Philly north. When the bad icing happened 2 weeks ago, we had an extended run of cold, like the past few days here. Although temps are warming above 32, I would think road and sidewalk, railings, etc are below 32 for a while tomorrow after the surface temp warms above. 1-3" followed by sleet and zr, even if its plain rain at 6-7a could cause major travel issues along the route 1 corridor. Thoughts? This. Especially with the models trying to have some back end changeover back to frozen, Monday morning is going to be hellish north of the turnpike for most areas, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i still have a feeling that the TTN to PHL ends up with a little more snow on the front end than currently being depicted, something in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches if we can get under some good bands early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i still have a feeling that the TTN to PHL ends up with a little more snow on the front end than currently being depicted, something in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches if we can get under some good bands early on. Nada I'm going trace to .08" at the airport it just doesn't want to snow there this year definitely not over an inch off a southeast flow of warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nada I'm going trace to .08" at the airport it just doesn't want to snow there this year definitely not over an inch off a southeast flow of warming. I never concern myself with the idea of it not wanting to snow in a certain place. Now if you think the warming wins out sooner, certainly you have plenty of support for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I never concern myself with the idea of it not wanting to snow in a certain place. Now if you think the warming wins out sooner, certainly you have plenty of support for that. For Philly/TTN/SMQ it's all about surface track. It is going to warm aloft, that is set in stone with upper level trough axes passing up near the NY/PA border. But if the surface low tracks overhead or just south of Philly, we will see a shorter period of time of winds with a southerly component, and less WAA at the surface consequentially. North of Philly path- plain rain. South of Philly- more ZR. That's the way I see it at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Probably should've said Philly, TTN, and Sandy Hook. SMQ is probably at a far enough more north latitude that they won't have the same concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Anthony, although I don't know exactly where you are, and believe it or not I don't know what the boundaries of the LHV are, SEPA is running out of room to wetbulb. Dews are creeping past the mid20's both SW and SE of Philly, and temperatures haven't leveled off. WAA doing it's dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Any tips for the super bowl crowd traveling on what time we are looking at for road conditions to deteriorate? I am having a difficult time trying to estimate if we are talking 5pm or 7pm or even later. Seems like the real goods don't show up until after 00Z. Anything earlier would be lighter in nature. But you know how these things go. Probably best to watch radar and match it up with ground obs to see where the real leading edge is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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