Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 much colder run, icing concerns grow NOOOOO!! with single digit readings coming in the next night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the models don't factor in that this is a nocturnal system do they? serious question for the pros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the models don't factor in that this is a nocturnal system do they? serious question for the pros. well Feb sun is stronger so during the day I would think the thermal radiation would penetrate the clouds and give you that critical 2-3 degrees that you need to thrawt ice but forget it at night that's what happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the models don't factor in that this is a nocturnal system do they? serious question for the pros. Most definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 well Feb sun is stronger so during the day I would think the thermal radiation would penetrate the clouds and give you that critical 2-3 degrees that you need to thrawt ice but forget it at night that's what happened last year. It is Feb 1-2nd, literally only 5 weeks after the solstice......sun isnt that strong yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 that's not associated with the warm front It is in fact WAA. WAA and overrunning are not the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It is Feb 1-2nd, literally only 5 weeks after the solstice......sun isnt that strong yetIt's the same as if it were early-mid November lol so yeah sun isn't strong, it's still a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the nam really doesn't warm the area that much....interested in mos data : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 the models don't factor in that this is a nocturnal system do they? serious question for the pros. Define what you mean by factor. They most certainly have schemes for inputting solar radiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Define what you mean by factor. They most certainly have schemes for inputting solar radiation. Thank you....you answered my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like I picked the wrong storm to quit sniffin' glue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 @TTN: NAM shoves the warm air north so quickly with the thrust of heavy precip. From 36 to 39 (6Z-9Z Monday morning) ~0.4" precip falls with temps swinging from 2-3 below freezing thru the column to 2-3 above. Hard to know how much of that falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 wow between 33-36 it jumps to the coast from Pittsburgh to off of ACY in 3 hours! Just as Larry Cosgrove described would occur...(see Vendor thread write-up!)..surprises afoot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Meanwhile the 0z RGEM has South Jersey and PHL over 50° mid Monday morning. Any takers? At least it gives PHL a couple of inches of snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What about that storm for next week? Is that still showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What about that storm for next week? Is that still showing up? With our recent luck, it will get suppressed to the south.... Then, next week is a lakes cutter, completing the full circle of misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well, 0Z GFS is south compared to 18Z..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 0z GFS is marginally better (a hair south). NYC must be happier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM and GFS trended colder, a trend that holds or false signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM and GFS trended colder, a trend that holds or false signal? Makes it more tempting to stay up for rest of 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Makes it more tempting to stay up for rest of 0z runs. Probably the trigger on the deadfall rock to reel us in then bam winter 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Probably the trigger on the deadfall rock to reel us in then bam winter 2015 That would be cruel, lol. But not unprecedented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 @TTN: NAM shoves the warm air north so quickly with the thrust of heavy precip. From 36 to 39 (6Z-9Z Monday morning) ~0.4" precip falls with temps swinging from 2-3 below freezing thru the column to 2-3 above. Hard to know how much of that falls as snow. After today's model runs, I'm thinking an inch of snow maybe two, then slop for a few hours, then majority rain for TTN south, obviously less as you go south. Don't even think this is an advisory level event at this point except maybe an areal flood advisory. Rooting for north and west to get something decent so at least the entire area doesn't get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ECM north, GFS NAM south. Narrowing it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow down to 3" on euro up here in high country and 1-2" south ECM screws us all in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dock the ECM a few more credibility points...what a brutal winter for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NAM and GFS trended colder, a trend that holds or false signal? Colder rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6Z GFS and NAM both got warmer, at least at TTN... both *maybe* show an inch of snow before a rapid changeover to ice and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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