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February 1st-2nd Winter Event


ChescoWx

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I think a storm like this will be easier for the models to handle. IF it does hit like the GFS indicates timing might be okay. It seems to start around 10-1am Sunday night. So there would be enough snow on the ground Monday AM to cancel most things. If it started earlier it could be a problem for post super bowl traffic, especially with people possibly not trusting mets. this go around

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6z gfs still has it.....quick glance....looks even a better setup....

Not sure it's a "better" setup....the low is weaker and farther South. This is one fear with this system. Originally 24-36 hours ago it was looking like it could mix or turn to rain (track North). Now with the PV nosing South and a strong surface HP, the system is being forced to our South. Lets hope the Euro is wrong in it's depiction of a very weak and sheared low well to the South. There is a HP out in the Atlantic which could allow for some weak ridging in the Southeast to help this bump North, but it seems that feature is moving East on latest guidance. Need that feature to stick.  

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Oh well forgot to edit and will dutifully correct. I still have interest in this storm.

 

So do I  - it was mainly a comment on the Euro's 12z presentation of things over the next week or so, i.e. DRY.

This winter particularly any one run of any given model needs to be taken with a large grain of salt, even the Euro apparently :lmao:.

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Not sure it's a "better" setup....the low is weaker and farther South. This is one fear with this system. Originally 24-36 hours ago it was looking like it could mix or turn to rain (track North). Now with the PV nosing South and a strong surface HP, the system is being forced to our South. Lets hope the Euro is wrong in it's depiction of a very weak and sheared low well to the South. There is a HP out in the Atlantic which could allow for some weak ridging in the Southeast to help this bump North, but it seems that feature is moving East on latest guidance. Need that feature to stick.  

 

I hear what you are saying about the southern push but for someone at the shore who was in slop earlier and now sees a nice quick 4-8 sliding through the region I was all smiles. No doubt suppression could also work against us. I have no complaints as I look over the 10"+ in the back yard, drink my coffee and watch the birds rip through their feed. Now if I put my pocono hat on its hard to find any complaints there as well. I actually prefer the cold with minor to moderate events.

 

I like the pattern :snowing::mapsnow::shiver::snowman:

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Nice 1052 hp dropping south as well as the PV nosing South in eastern canada. Those are your potential grazing system to the south players. Also note the position of the surface high in the southest  which moves into the far western atlantic and could act to pump the flow out of the gulf stream. Thread the needle, has nice potential.

 

nam_namer_054_1000_500_thick.gif

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