hazwoper Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For those thinking this is mostly ZR after the switch, just keep in mind the amount of latent heat that heavy rain will add to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ggem is the way to go I am riding the UK & GFS. Euro has sucked all around this winter with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am riding the UK & GFS. Euro has sucked all around this winter with the nam The Euro was bad on the last storm. Unless I am mistaken, it is still verifying the best of any of the models this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For those thinking this is mostly ZR after the switch, just keep in mind the amount of latent heat that heavy rain will add to the surface. it's a fair point, especially if the precip is heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JMA is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gefs in line with gfs ... north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO actually shows a solid front end thump for Philly 4-6" at least on stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro is coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro is coming in colder the other models should follow this afternoon or tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the other models should follow this afternoon or tonight. Yes I believe other models may be underestimating the strength of the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro is coming in colder Compared to other models, it is still warmer than its 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like essentially the euro has come 10-15 miles north so held it's ground for the most part unlike the GFS Majority snow Allentown some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Compared to other models, it is still warmer than its 00z run Came North yet surface is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 JMA is south Wow LOL everyone jump on the JMA train.... All Aboard!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 12z GFS/NAM increases total precip and thump of snow amounts for NW Chesco here is the rundown - all 10:1 ratios (2.21" total w.e.) Light Snow arrives by 630pm temp 18.9 1am Heavy Snow temp 20.7 (1.8" snow) 4am Heavy Snow temp 24.5 (6.8" snow) 6am Snow/IP mix 25.5 (9.4" of snow/ip) 630a-1030am 0.86" of ZR falls 1030a-1230pm temp briefly gets up to 33.1 in light drizzle Heavier precip moves back in by 1230pm -2pm with a heavy mix of Snow/Rain temp near freezing becoming all snow toward 2pm ending by 4pm (0.30") fall during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like essentially the euro has come 10-15 miles north so held it's ground for the most part unlike the GFS Majority snow Allentown some sleet Never mind that after seeing the EUROwx map its a good 30 miles north this run 8.5" snow Allentown 4-6" upper Montco , Bucks and West Chester and i imagine significant sleet thrown in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1" for Philly this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bottle of Vodka and the JMA FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EURO actually shows a solid front end thump for Philly 4-6" at least on stormvista maybe more like 3-4, but the thump is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1" for Philly this run Philadelphia is finished. Just hoping I can cash in on some snow here in upper montco. Right now, my going forecast is 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Came North yet surface is colder it is about 15 miles north, essentially just noise compared to its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1" for Philly this run looks like more than an inch to me on the front end......it is really close of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Never mind that after seeing the EUROwx map its a good 30 miles north this run 8.5" snow Allentown 4-6" upper Montco , Bucks and West Chester and i imagine significant sleet thrown in well are we talking what the snowfall maps are showing or track of the storm? those are two different things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Philadelphia is finished. Just hoping I can cash in on some snow here in upper montco. Right now, my going forecast is 3-6 it is too close to say for certainty that PHL is finished, at the very least it will be a mess on monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 With the GFS showing close to 2 inches of prep. and most storm drains blocked, would;t be surprised to see a flood watch soon south of Lambertville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it is too close to say for certainty that PHL is finished, at the very least it will be a mess on monday They'll get a front end thump. Then, a mess... nothing to get excited over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They'll get a front end thump. Then, a mess... nothing to get excited over biggest event of the year for PHL, so you take what you can get. plus there is potential still for a snowier solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I like the JMA not being amped because i think usually its over amped many times so maybe this is a good thing. But overall i think its not that good of a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 biggest event of the year for PHL, so you take what you can get. plus there is potential still for a snowier solution I agree with this but the models have shown this before and at the Airport winds up getting less than an inch go just 13 miles west where I am at and we are the ones that get your 2-3".. hence... Media has like 7" total on the year and the Airport is struggling to get to 3" .... That 7-13 miles has made a huge difference just shows you how bad its been from the City South and East for this Winter... clearly a snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How hard is it for PHL to get [significant] snow in a -PNA/+AO/+NAO environment? I'm curious what the largest snowfall is in an environment like that. I know PDII was during a +NAO phase, but what were the other phases at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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