Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs really wants to blow this up as it passes over us. this could really warm low levels so big rain storm for many around here except poconos/north. still concerned about CAD. model mayhem. enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting point about it being the para GFS -- there's no track record with it. Guess we're going to find out if it's good in these situations or lousy at recognizing CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Next Oh Canada and Dr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Next I am going to wait to punt this threat until after Ive seen the rest of 12z. not looking good tho attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsfan18 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting point about it being the para GFS -- there's no track record with it. Guess we're going to find out if it's good in these situations or lousy at recognizing CAD.. The only storm semi similar is the freezing rain debacle 2 weeks ago. Para. Had all rain for the LHV south. We know how that played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cold rain awesome RGEM also north. 12z began with tempting NAM hope to draw you in close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Flowing water everywhere and -3F Monday night sounds awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Next LOL.... and the Cold Air Coming down currently in the upper mid west dives straight south raising heights along the East Coast and warm air sweeps in from the Southeastern States and Atlantic and its all rain.... Welcome to the Winter of 2014-2015 still less than 3" of snow on the year at Philadelphia International Airport even after our "Blizzard" this year is getting ugly FAST!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even Boston has issues. +NAO for the loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 if nam sniffed this out with those warm runs im done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM is always good for a hiccup or two. Guess that's what happened with today's 12z run. Fully expecting Dr. No to join the warm camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Flowing water everywhere and -3F Monday night sounds awesome :axe: Nothing more to say about that. Pathetic, especially for you guys ABE and south. To go from single digits the day before to a driving rainstorm, to potentially sub zero the day after is unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 :axe: Nothing more to say about that. Pathetic, especially for you guys ABE and south. To go from single digits the day before to a driving rainstorm, to potentially sub zero the day after is unreal. Welcome to the "New Normal" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 im not sure of the track or how much the 850 warms up, but I will take action on the under for surface temperature at lets say ABE as compared to the GFS. I will be shocked if the surface gets that warm, the gfs is underdoing the CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 :axe: Nothing more to say about that. Pathetic, especially for you guys ABE and south. To go from single digits the day before to a driving rainstorm, to potentially sub zero the day after is unreal. not so sure this is going to be a driving rainstorm.....not feeling as great about a mostly snow event, but I see real issues with surface temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CRAS takes a track similar to the gfs....change to rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CRAS takes a track similar to the gfs....change to rain for most. Now you know the GFS is BS GGEM's still good for a few inches before the mess takes over in SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dont look at the ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I go back to sleep and then wake up to this model run. Let me say this, I'll wait till the NAO goes negative. Pretty much the models reflect a rotten pattern we've been In for a whole. Just a horrible season to get any meaningful snow. Monday , good day to check out the car show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dont look at the ukmet UKmet has been consistently north with the storm. The GGEM looks like my thoughts, a front end thump of a few inches followed by a mess for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is still significant snow for N&W burbs didn't follow GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ggem is the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I go back to sleep and then wake up to this model run. Let me say this, I'll wait till the NAO goes negative. Pretty much the models reflect a rotten pattern we've been In for a whole. Just a horrible season to get any meaningful snow. Monday , good day to check out the car show.. really this model suite hasnt been all bad both the NAM and GGEM still show a good snow event for a lot of the area, the GFS is pretty blah, and UKMET way north. So far from a consensus I go back to sleep and then wake up to this model run. Let me say this, I'll wait till the NAO goes negative. Pretty much the models reflect a rotten pattern we've been In for a whole. Just a horrible season to get any meaningful snow. Monday , good day to check out the car show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm Watch up just 6 miles up the road from me in Berks County...I will be so close I could almost shovel it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CGEM adds more mayhem in the mix, roll the dice for the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 UKMET for the win?? since that was always north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CGEM flips to some hvy rain up to abe, CAD not picked up? close to 2" liquid for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm Watch up just 6 miles up the road from me in Berks County...I will be so close I could almost shovel it!! We were in this same boat a day before the epic "blizzard." Only for models to keep trending worse for the area and we dropped to an advisory and ended up not even getting an inch. Different situation here but if the north trend continues I could see Mt. Holly downgrading yet again up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 CGEM flips to some hvy rain up to abe, CAD not picked up? It can be an issue for the globals.....now if it going negative tilt as fast as let's say the UKMET then I think rain could get up to ABE, but I would lean towards ice if the GGEM verified, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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