mattinpa Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hi Ralph, do you think this signals at least the N trend may have stopped? I mean ice is worse than snow but NAM was pretty rainy last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hi Ralph, do you think this signals at least the N trend may have stopped? I mean ice is worse than snow but NAM was pretty rainy last run. We will have to see what the rest of 12z says. Cant base it off of 1 model. The SREFS were north and I thought the NAM would follow. This could be a good trend beginning or just a blip. We will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nam came south but not enough. lot of heavy rain philly /south once it changes over. we need this a tad south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is the 'warmest' the NAM gets the surface...deep cold pool just to the north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 850 low seems weaker and less defined on this run (just a broad 132dm isobar instead of a closed 129/126)...don't know if that will ultimately mean anything, but pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Initially this run may have provided some hope the low would track south a bit, but not. Really seeing how bad we needed NAO to be in the negative phase.. Just checking the initial conditions of AO and NAO both is positive phase. Just looking at some current observations, but that is terrible if you want snow..probably explains why it's hard to get the big snows with those type of signals... You know what shows up on this run. Is high pressure off the Southeast US. So it looks like it keeps the low from tracking the south. So on this run, we freeze today only to go above freezing for the next storm with not much snow to speak of. Just brutal and even worse further south you go not much snow. Just another thought if and when NAO truly goes negative, then I think things could change in our favor. I think the latest ensembles are starting g to show that. So maybe after Feb 14th things could get interesting.. Anyway, just sharing my thoughts with everyone here.. Well it's the first model run for 12z, so let's see how this plays out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Open is better for less warm air advection so I will take that as a positive on the warmest model of the bunch. Here's to better trends (south)...I hope. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We will have to see what the rest of 12z says. Cant base it off of 1 model. The SREFS were north and I thought the NAM would follow. This could be a good trend beginning or just a blip. We will know soon enough. Agreed about the minor south trend and the wait and see. Nice to see though. Surface temps are a bit colder, and if you look at the northern edge of the total precipitation band it moved south by about 40-50 miles, which to my novice eye indicates maybe more of a push south of cold air. Also the slp is a hair south, and a bit weaker to the west of us which is good given it's position. Just one run but the first one in a while that has some positive developments for this area so in that sense it was encouraging. At the least it could indicate the northern trend is close to being done. Maybe, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 freezing rain / sleet will probably be the primary precip types in central and southern NJ. it's going to be a battle to get above freezing...even in southern NJ. with brutal cold high pressure like this. I've seen many times where the 10m temps bust in a setup like this. (duel cold highs funneling in) And i'm calling for the models to trend slightly more south for tonight and tomorrow morning's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Open is better for less warm air advection so I will take that as a positive on the warmest model of the bunch. Here's to better trends (south)...I hope. Nut Sorry, I should clarify that it is still closed...but it's nowhere near as tight as 6z (broad 132 vs tight 129). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 freezing rain / sleet will probably be the primary precip types in central and southern NJ. it's going to be a battle to get above freezing...even in southern NJ. with brutal cold high pressure like this. I've seen many times where the 10m temps bust in a setup like this. (duel cold highs funneling in) Excellent point brought up here, Given how cold today is, that's something to definitely watch for this storm coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are you driving Monday (truck)? Perfect day to take off if possible? (Probably not how it works w/your line of work) Watch the Superbowl...some beers and sleep in Monday and let this mess go by. Nope. I'm off. Switching jobs. I started with a new company and they gave me a 900,000 mile beast that the ripped seats were fixed with electrical tape, had an oil and diesel leak, and worst of all had a heater that couldn't keep up with the cold once the sun went down. Screw them. The company I'm going with now has 2014 and 2015 Volvos, but I won't start until Wednesday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Initially this run may have provided some hope the low would track south a bit, but not. Really seeing how bad we needed NAO to be in the negative phase.. Just checking the initial conditions of AO and NAO both is positive phase. Just looking at some current observations, but that is terrible if you want snow..probably explains why it's hard to get the big snows with those type of signals... You know what shows up on this run. Is high pressure off the Southeast US. So it looks like it keeps the low from tracking the south. So on this run, we freeze today only to go above freezing for the next storm with not much snow to speak of. Just brutal and even worse further south you go not much snow. Just another thought if and when NAO truly goes negative, then I think things could change in our favor. I think the latest ensembles are starting g to show that. So maybe after Feb 14th things could get interesting.. Anyway, just sharing my thoughts with everyone here.. Well it's the first model run for 12z, so let's see how this plays out.. Hmmm I have been saying this since Late December but only to be dismissed.... Now it does snow with a +NAO but the current pattern for THIS winter we were coming into we need a -NAO. Still though you can lock in the cold air at the surface to set up a brutal ice storm just north and west of the Philadelphia area after all we now do have cold grounds again. Now the February sun is a bit stronger so things can warm up quicker especially as we get later and later in the month but I do not think that will have much impact when your current temperatures are running 12-17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Excellent point brought up here, Given how cold today is, that's something to definitely watch for this storm coming in. Thanks. great points in yours as well - Initially this run may have provided some hope the low would track south a bit, but not. Really seeing how bad we needed NAO to be in the negative phase.. Just checking the initial conditions of AO and NAO both is positive phase. Just looking at some current observations, but that is terrible if you want snow..probably explains why it's hard to get the big snows with those type of signals... You know what shows up on this run. Is high pressure off the Southeast US. So it looks like it keeps the low from tracking the south. So on this run, we freeze today only to go above freezing for the next storm with not much snow to speak of. Just brutal and even worse further south you go not much snow. Just another thought if and when NAO truly goes negative, then I think things could change in our favor. I think the latest ensembles are starting g to show that. So maybe after Feb 14th things could get interesting.. Anyway, just sharing my thoughts with everyone here.. Well it's the first model run for 12z, so let's see how this plays out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Steve, You will have your best snow storm of the season at this point, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Steve, You will have your best snow storm of the season at this point, enjoy! Thanks. It's looking like it might be, but, there's still room for this thing to go bad even up here. If Allentown and Reading mix, then we most likely will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ice concerns increase for burbs per rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z gfs, snow philly 36, 39hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 42hr mix issues at ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 45hr hvy precip, rain philly, 0line/32line around abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 48 hvy hvy rain abe south, might even be futher north than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 51 hr ice issues in poconos, hvy rain south including Leigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 54hr 32 line Scranton, 0 line crashing into burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i expect gfs not picking up on CAD, ice big concern burbs north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is this a f***ing joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 57hr 32 lehigh valley, 0 line off shore. 60hr 32 line at philly, lt snow then pulling out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 snow moved way north on gfs, ice big concern central pa. not a great gfs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 gfs is a good bit slower too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 snow moved way north on gfs, ice big concern central pa. not a great gfs run Completely horrible. I expected it to hold tight not zoom way N w/the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wow, gfs says what CAD? not sure I like the para gfs in this spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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