Morch Madness Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 yup, mixing gets into PHL, keeps totals 3-5 or so I am cautiously optimistic for 12z tomorrow. Even the slightest tick south would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In summary euro is north .3" less qpf yet stays just as cold. Bizzare not what I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am cautiously optimistic for 12z tomorrow. Even the slightest tick south would be good. unfortunately it's been doing nothing but ticking north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 unfortunately it's been doing nothing but ticking north.Depending on how strong the confluence and 50/50 are, this could be as far north as it comes. I think there is a reasonable chance we see a tick south tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 32 deg line stays south of Philly thru entire storm, wonder if its sleet or frz rain or all of the above when it changes. Think a good call for city is 1-4", mixing over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In summary, the NAM and UKMET have us out of the game while the EURO and GFS are creeping north lowering snow totals. Need to have a major reversal on the first two and a halt to the northward creep of the other two at 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ray I always defer to professionals like you...but the bar is not real high to make this the biggest winter event of the season...you think it will not as this point? quote name="famartin" post="3324498" timestamp="1422677180"]Like it or not, NONE of us knows for sure what is going to happen. That includes you, Paul I could see it going either way. Very small nudge either way would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 wash out at the shore.....drifts at the pocono cabin sounds like things are heading back to normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 orecast. Main note I think they will be a very very sharp cutoff, I literally spend a hour or two working on the fine nature of this. Thus you see the AFD getting out absurdly late, that and the computer program crashing every few seconds . Also of note the BUFKIT sounding on the GFS for PHL showed a 3C temperature at 900 mb by 6z. We'll see what the 12z runs bring, as I stated in my AFD the GFS appears to be a reasonable middle of the road approach between the cold EC and the warm NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thanks Mitchell for the insight and effort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel really bad for the NYC crew....this is quickly becoming Boston's storm. 72 hours out DCA, 48+ hours out Phlliy, 36 hours out NYC, I just have a hunch next destination is Boston. We've played this game before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel really bad for the NYC crew....this is quickly becoming Boston's storm. 72 hours out DCA, 48+ hours out Phlliy, 36 hours out NYC, I just have a hunch next destination is Boston. We've played this game before. NYC is only going to see 4 inches or so out of this I think, I don't think its going to shift north much and in reality last night's runs did not come that far north on track. what is occurring more so is the mid-level WAA is getting picked up by the models as we get closer. I think everyone NYC south is sleet by 10-11z. And therein lies the the problem in NYC, this is not a true SWFE so I don't see a changeover to rain, even far northern parts of this sub forum its likely going to be an all frozen event with a possible 2-3 hour period of ripping sleet and possibly FZRA though I think more likely sleet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 4" will be a stretch for them....too much mid level warming. Not sure dynamic cooling will help overcome that warmth....time will tell. Not liking philly or nyc's chances (front end thump to rain) but loving a providence RI / Boston MA hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 even far northern parts of this sub forum its likely going to be an all frozen event with a possible 2-3 hour period of ripping sleet and possibly FZRA though I think more likely sleet right now. That's the part that's going to cause me to bang my head against the wall. Just when we'd get into the best snowfall rates, it'll flip over to sleet. That's probably the most frustrating part of this storm and this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's the part that's going to cause me to bang my head against the wall. Just when we'd get into the best snowfall rates, it'll flip over to sleet. That's probably the most frustrating part of this storm and this setup. Are you driving Monday (truck)? Perfect day to take off if possible? (Probably not how it works w/your line of work) Watch the Superbowl...some beers and sleep in Monday and let this mess go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fwiw - Colin says 3-5 for ABE .... Then rain... Why'd I add him on facebook again?? Lmao Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 4" will be a stretch for them....too much mid level warming. Not sure dynamic cooling will help overcome that warmth....time will tell. Not liking philly or nyc's chances (front end thump to rain) but loving a providence RI / Boston MA hit. I see little chance of plain rain north of TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see little chance of plain rain north of TTN.Im thinking plain rain makes it to the turnpike latitude with a prolonged period of sleet/fzra north of there thru possibly allentown. That zone may or may not change to plain rain. North of that all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sticking with 4-8" for my area which includes both thump and back-end stuff. Prolonged mixing here. Any adjustments to this will be made at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Srefs look north again....expecting the nam to follow suit and either hold its ground or tick a hair farther north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This model roller-coaster mayhem hurts my head. If NAM sniffed this out correctly and Euro is wrong again then I give up. I'd be happy with NWS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Srefs only have 2 members that travel south of the area and those are really close straddling the mason-dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z Wxsim with GFS/NAM blend for NW Chesco - highest temp during storm is 31.4 - total precip 1.87" all frozen 630pm light snow temp 16.6 10pm light snow temp 18.5 1am Heavy Snow temp 19.6 (2.5" snow) 4am Heavy Snow/IP mix temp 23.6 (6.0" snow/ip) 430am IP/ZR Mix temp 25.5 630 am IP/ZR (0.27" w.e. fall as IP/ZR ) 7:00am -1230pm (0.86" falls as ZR) 1230pm-7pm - transition back to light snow maybe 1" of snow on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow thats alot of ice Paul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fwiw - Colin says 3-5 for ABE .... Then rain... Why'd I add him on facebook again?? Lmao Sent from my iPhone Whoa, I completely forgot about that guy.Some things never change I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 nam farther south thru 36 fwiw pv stronger and farther south hp over Canadian border farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM still not good for abe south. CAD will be an issue for burbs. Really hope ICE is not a huge issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM still not good for abe south. CAD will be an issue for burbs. Really hope ICE is not a huge issue. Here we go my fear ice storm hello 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM still not good for abe south. CAD will be an issue for burbs. Really hope ICE is not a huge issue. Icing potential looks real. Step in the right direction tho with the tick south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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