Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I feel like if you looked at the 500mb without looking at anything else youd imagine a more N track. 18z models make the most sense with low placement IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Train just wrecked on the 18z GFS. North trend keeps going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm starting to get worried up here. The valleys always mix/rain in these marginal setups... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I still wouldn't give up hope on a 3-5" front end thump for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I am waiting until 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Kiss of Death: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I still wouldn't give up hope on a 3-5" front end thump for most Agreed....there will be several hours of moderate to heavy snow in SE PA before any flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm starting to get worried up here. The valleys always mix/rain in these marginal setups... You guys are funny. There's a ton of cold air around. NAO and AO are falling. PNA is spiking. This is a mid-Altantic pattern. Snow to mix to snow for Philly to New York. Further north should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the models overplayed the airmass currently coming in behind the latest clipper. I am sitting at 32 degrees when I expected much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Kiss of Death: But Ralph, this isn't a coastal storm that will travel NE from there. It will be moving E. How long will the wind blow south at 850 over Philly? Equally important, how quickly do we fall back below 0 once the mid level low passes? According to that chart, fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 But Ralph, this isn't a coastal storm that will travel NE from there. It will be moving E. How long will the wind blow south at 850 over Philly? Equally important, how quickly do we fall back below 0 once the mid level low passes? According to that chart, fast. This isn't a vort that will be going negative east of us, so by the time the low passes and temps drop the precip drops off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the models overplayed the airmass currently coming in behind the latest clipper. I am sitting at 32 degrees when I expected much colder. Did they underplay the winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 As forky stated in the NYC thread people keep talking about confluence and that the low "cant" do this...look at the 500mb animation, the confluence is rotating with the storm. We need to see a much weaker shortwave (which is still possible, probably less than 25%) or its pretty bad in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You guys are funny. There's a ton of cold air around. NAO and AO are falling. PNA is spiking. This is a mid-Altantic pattern. Snow to mix to snow for Philly to New York. Further north should be fine. Not if the north trend continues for a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Unless there is a drastic turn around this storm may be toast. I'll wait until the 0Z suite. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015013018&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=301 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not too concerned about it going too far north yet. It's still a very close call unless you live in the southern part of the region. And with the shifts on the models lately, those southern areas could be fine also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let's relax a bit before we call this storm off because of the 18z GFS and the NAM. If the 0z suite keeps going north, then I will be concerned. But for now, let's wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Unless there is a drastic turn around this storm may be toast. I'll wait until the 0Z suite. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015013018&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=301 this is overstating it a lot. even if we do flip, which is looking more likely, these SWFE events tend to produce nice front end thumps that go over to lighter mixes. Plus we have a really strong cold air mass to scour out. also get under the right banding, and you will see some heavy snowfall rates for a few hours (for an example of this, last december's eagles's game snowfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This isn't a vort that will be going negative east of us, so by the time the low passes and temps drop the precip drops off. this happens all of the time in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 everyone north of pa turnpike, relax, south ?? ignore the nam. wait for 0z runs, not the nam and then 12z runs, not the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 question from a newb: why is freezing rain not a threat with that high pressure to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The trepidation runs have commenced. Right on schedule... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 question from a newb: why is freezing rain not a threat with that high pressure to the north? The high isn't the reason there is a threat of a mix. It's the fact that the low crosses over our area. It needs to be south of us to keep this all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Local JB at it again, LOL something wrong with this picture http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_Snow_on_way_but_can_you_trust_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the hot pink in the upper left corner of the map above Berks County? 12-16? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Local JB at it again, LOL something wrong with this picture Tri_State_Map_Snow2.jpg http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_Snow_on_way_but_can_you_trust_us.html It's very euro-ish. Not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the hot pink in the upper left corner of the map above Berks County? 12-16? Those are red flag warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Those are red flag warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 this is overstating it a lot. even if we do flip, which is looking more likely, these SWFE events tend to produce nice front end thumps that go over to lighter mixes. Plus we have a really strong cold air mass to scour out. also get under the right banding, and you will see some heavy snowfall rates for a few hours (for an example of this, last december's eagles's game snowfall) Yes but in that storm cold air was advecting in at all levels this is opposite albeit tempoary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Local JB at it again, LOL something wrong with this picture Wow. Reduce it by 95% and it's accurate Tri_State_Map_Snow2.jpg http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_Snow_on_way_but_can_you_trust_us.html Local JB at it again, LOL something wrong with this picture Tri_State_Map_Snow2.jpg http://www.philly.com/philly/news/Bolaris_Snow_on_way_but_can_you_trust_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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