Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 9:26 PM, The Iceman said: Yup, you can't discount the nam just because you don't like its solution. It's definitely possible and it has nailed this storm. May be ahead of the game again. Come on dude. the model blows. really wish they would upgrade it or send up a new model to outer space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 9:51 PM, Bacon Strips said: wow guys, check out 39 hours on the GFS. 850 temps are colder than 10m's. In this type of setup, you'd expect the opposite. precip types should be interesting...for sure. I think we are good for a decent thump near 10 inches prior to an ip mix and back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 10:11 PM, snowwors2 said: upper montco WSWatch lower montco not even a WWA up? WWA does not go up until 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do you guys still think the AM commute Monday will be really bad in the NW burbs? I have to be in Philly monday and I am not sure if that is a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You have to go to Virginia to find a reading over freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 10:48 PM, Animal said: I think we are good for a decent thump near 10 inches prior to an ip mix and back to snow good luck with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I sense not much has changed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 11:43 PM, GD0815 said: good luck with that! I think it's doable up their way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 11:06 PM, Coltsfan1217 said: Do you guys still think the AM commute Monday will be really bad in the NW burbs? I have to be in Philly monday and I am not sure if that is a good idea No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 11:06 PM, Coltsfan1217 said: Do you guys still think the AM commute Monday will be really bad in the NW burbs? I have to be in Philly monday and I am not sure if that is a good idea I would most definitely say it is possible depending on where you are in the NW suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 12:06 AM, KamuSnow said: I think it's doable up their way not that much snow IMO, might be a bad mess though, with ice, etc on top of several inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 12:35 AM, tcutter said: I would most definitely say it is possible depending on where you are in the NW suburbs Northern Montco. I may just get it moved. Not trying to deal w sleet/ice/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 An ice storm/ sleet fest could end up being even worse for the NW suburbs than just plain snow. Especially if it causes outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 9:39 PM, famartin said: It hasn't nailed anything til it happens. That said, the Euro seems to again be the last to see the light. If this storm is like last one, we can expect a random couple runs of the NAM to have some wacky southward cold push tomorrow and then suddenly reverse back to warm as the storm begins And if that were to happen we would certainly not get excited about it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latest Wxsim with 18z for NW Chesco...although of course expect changes by 12z tomorrow Overall 1.32" of total 1.67" falls as frozen Snow/IP before change to ZR around 5" by 5am Monday morning Temp appears to get to about 33.9 at 130pm....but vast majority of precip falls before the surface struggles above freezing. Just another in a string of fascinating systems to watch....this will not be the last.....good times for those who like tracking winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It looks like the models currently are in pretty good agreement that we should see light snow spreading in in the late afternoon to early evening tomorrow. The heavier precipitation appears to come in from the west after midnight, around the same time the warm air starts moving north across the MD line (midnight - 2 am). I think an inch or two, maybe a little more, is possible in extreme SEPA before a changeover to eventually plain rain. It should be more interesting the further north you go, hopefully the snow will pile up before the warm air moves in. For down here I'd still be in favor of a weaker storm than currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 1:12 AM, KamuSnow said: It looks like the models currently are in pretty good agreement that we should see light snow spreading in in the late afternoon to early evening tomorrow. The heavier precipitation appears to come in from the west after midnight, around the same time the warm air starts moving north across the MD line (midnight - 2 am). I think an inch or two, maybe a little more, is possible in extreme SEPA before a changeover to eventually plain rain. It should be more interesting the further north you go, hopefully the snow will pile up before the warm air moves in. For down here I'd still be in favor of a weaker storm than currently modeled. yes for us Chads Ford to Media 0.3" for the Airport LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 1:44 AM, Kevin Reilly said: yes for us Chads Ford to Media 0.3" for the Airport LOL lol, sad but what else can you do. The radar looks pretty cool out in the middle of the country anyway. Looks like a big old Portugese Man-o-War. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 thru 12 hours the nam is already arther north with the surface lp by a tick more interaction between northern and southern energy gonna be north and more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 definitely moving faster this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 nam is so far north slp in central illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 funny thing is, nam is colder....what a strange model, or is it finally seeing cad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 most of the area save northern zones miss out on the waa snows this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 2:11 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: funny thing is, nam is colder....what a strange model, or is it finally seeing cad? gotta be the CAD Ralph Gotta Be current dew point 9 here temp 19 here in Media... you are not just going to magically make this cold air go away its going to get trapped Eastern Chester County to Allentown as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 2:12 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: most of the area save northern zones miss out on the waa snows this run. WTH are you talking about? At hr 30 heavy snow all of SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 looking closely at the nam hires, it almost tries to pop a weak low off the va beach area 30 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 2:18 AM, hazwoper said: WTH are you talking about? At hr 30 heavy snow all of SEPA that's not associated with the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 2:18 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: looking closely at the nam hires, it almost tries to pop a low off the va beach area 30 hours or so. Wow now if a low pops off VA Beach this dramatically changes everything gotta watch that...LOL maybe the Japan Model was on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 wow between 33-36 it jumps to the coast from Pittsburgh to off of ACY in 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 much colder run, icing concerns grow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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